94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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813. SLU
Another Caribbean tracker

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OK, slid past us in the AO. Warning expired at 2:45 PM.
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Some of these may have been posted but here's the CMC:



NOGAPS:



And UKMET:

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Quoting mobileshadow:

Ya'll take cover but I wouldn't be that worried about a waterspout and that's what prompted that Tornado warning they do very little if any damage
be careful that storm also might have 70 mph winds
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Been some childish posts on the blog today. Lets keep it together folks, we're all weather enthusiasts and I'm pretty sure we can agree to disagree. No need to take things personally in the comments section of a blog on the internet.

On another note Tembin is undergoing RI in the WPAC and is forecast make landfall in Taiwan. 97W out by Guam looks to have big plans in its future as well.

Tembin


97W
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Its getting that look.
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There ya go, GOM bound.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
95L looking good could see a bump up too 30 or 40%


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Our currently active Hurricane/Tropical Storm Storm
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234


Any request for a HH yet???
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro south of Jamaica, starting to turn northwestwards:


very simmlar to the 12Z GFS
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Quoting Grothar:
There, I declare a blob.



This setup aloft and at the surface is B A D.
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Quoting Gearsts:
There's a low infront and is not looking bad at all.


but it is an open wave
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Quoting OuterBanker:
to my family, we are under cover in inside room. Looks like near miss coming our way.

Ya'll take cover but I wouldn't be that worried about a waterspout and that's what prompted that Tornado warning they do very little if any damage and many NWS offices will not issue a tornado warning for a spout . LIX will but MOB will not
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro south of Jamaica, starting to turn northwestwards:



Da loopdy loop effect all over da southern gulf...
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Quoting weatherh98:


all i see is an open wave
There's a low infront and is not looking bad at all.
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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WFUS52 KMHX 191820
TORMHX
NCC055-191845-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0008.120819T1820Z-120819T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 219 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 7
MILES EAST OF MANNS HARBOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE ALSO
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHALEBONE...NAGS HEAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
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There, I declare a blob.

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Quoting mobileshadow:
Not a Conus threat at this time



What are you talking about?

the TVCN is the consensus that most closely reflects what the NHC usually goes with, and it's taking a grand tour of the Caribbean...not to mention GFDL and HWRF closely agree with the track.

The models hooking hard north are some of the less advanced models that are probably obsolete and need to be phased out.
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Dmin?
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models are shifting S again as I am expecting
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Blog Update



For English Skip To 2:33
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Quoting JLPR2:


Really you don't see the twist? O.o
You can use the 850mb vort to see it as well. More or less 10N 49W.


all i see is an open wave
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hmm do i see may be 96L and 97L???



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Quoting Gearsts:
I cant belive you bring that up again. Please give it a rest because is getting a little annoying now. OMG im scared because it shows a storm over PR and the funny part is than it still shows a system over PR and im worried. You are a respected blogger here and i do respect you and like your forecast but please stop this childish argument.


If you bothered to read the first sentence of his post, he said he is 'responding to this'...therefore he didn't bring it up. It was actually me so if you would like to discuss the matter I'm right here.
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Euro south of Jamaica, starting to turn northwestwards:

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94L come on we love you :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we could have 96L be hid 94L in a few days


or in front of
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2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
08L.GORDON

East Pacific
96E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
97W.INVEST
15W.TEMBIN

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting Grothar:


I'll bet you everyone of them is now South of Hispaniola!!


would not be surprised at all
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781. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Been to the eye doctor lately? XD


Really you don't see the twist? O.o
You can use the 850mb vort to see it as well. More or less 10N 49W.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Strange given that everything else seems to indicate otherwise, including the NHC.


CIMSS products can be out of whack occasionally. Almost everything that we can see from surface obs to satellite imagery suggests the disturbance is on its way to becoming a tropical depression.
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Quoting Grothar:


I'll bet you everyone of them is now South of Hispaniola!!



Curtain Bound me tinks maybe?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Been to the eye doctor lately? XD



you seem a little rude and jumpy today



did not get any sleep last night or some in? why not step a way from the key board for a few hrs and come back at the 8pm two
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You give it a rest because I apologized. I technically did not bring this subject back up, btw. It doesn't matter though.
I don't have anything to apologized. Just asking everyone to forget about it.
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to my family, we are under cover in inside room. Looks like near miss coming our way.
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referring to mississippiWx
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and because of those few idiots, we should envoke a ban for anyone who posts a forecast model beyond 5 days?

That is just stupid IMO
i think you should defer you hiatus.we are about to have major gulf issues, imo.
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Quoting Patrap:
ATCF has cleared "94L's" 12Z runs and should load the 18Z shortly..

or not : )



I'll bet you everyone of them is now South of Hispaniola!!
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773. SXMFL
Hey all, I know most of you are watching 94l for what's going to happen after the Antilles, but living in SXM, I was just wondering what do you all think about 94L(Irene) hitting us? Just t want to be prepared seeing as our power grid is pretty unreliable too :) TIA!
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Quoting presslord:
Pat...this might be a good time for you to post the definition of "Invest"


A Blobation of Red, with a turning kinda mojo.

Hows dat?
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Quoting Patrap:


..Please read the "Disco" that I wrote..




Heavier stuff out over the GOM now...
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Not a Conus threat at this time

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we could have 96L be hid 94L in a few days
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea maybe, what we could do is possibly regulate to have only 1 person post the model run and maybe only show every 24 hours as supposed to every single plot


That would do it :) Or at least get people to post the links to the specific model run so that it keeps the blog from being clogged with bandwith but also allows everyone to see all the runs if they wish. I for one never ever post images or animated gifs I just link to everything that I discuss.
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Probably posted already but here goes again.


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-23522- 1345399087.gif

Accuweather Forum
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Quoting JLPR2:


Really? I mean it's not as strong as 94L, but it has improved in the past days.

Been to the eye doctor lately? XD
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ATCF has cleared "94L's" 12Z runs and should load the 18Z shortly..

or not : )

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Pat...this might be a good time for you to post the definition of "Invest"
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's why I didn't leave you guys out on the East Coast and said, from there to TX. needs to keep an eye on it, since it looks like the threat is going up for impacts on the CONUS.


right now its anybody's system..unfortunately the islands may have the first impact
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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