94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:


Just let it go..you are able to post what you want..some people just want to dictate how people should post on here..if you dont like someone's post, just move on to the next post..people should be able to post any model runs they want, exclaim, shout, grunt or whatever..I dare someone to tell me I cant post or say what I want within the underground guidelines..

You are not allowed to post or say whatever you want.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Been some childish posts on the blog today. Lets keep it together folks, we're all weather enthusiasts and I'm pretty sure we can agree to disagree. No need to take things personally in the comments section of a blog on the internet.

On another note Tembin is undergoing RI in the WPAC and is forecast make landfall in Taiwan. 97W out by Guam looks to have big plans in its future as well.

Tembin


97W


I don't think too many are interested when we have 2 invest's and a Hurricane/TS active in the Atlantic Basin and also the possibility of severe flooding along the gulf coast due to a stalled front?
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Renumber should occur a hour or two from now if it does get renumbered...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7506
860. Relix
I am expecting a renumber for 94L at any time. Its obvious it has gotten its act together at this point.
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Quoting Gearsts:
I don't have to discuss anything with you.


Just let it go..you are able to post what you want..some people just want to dictate how people should post on here..if you dont like someone's post, just move on to the next post..people should be able to post any model runs they want, exclaim, shout, grunt or whatever..I dare someone to tell me I cant post or say what I want within the underground guidelines..
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18z suite is a Caribbean Cruiser.

We've come a long way from insta-fish.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but the ridge is currently oriented in a way that 94L could move WSW for a time


True, it's a large ridge, but what comes down, must come up.. A southwest movement is deff possible, but after that, a general WNW motion looks likely to me.
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For futcha' reference.

The HH Recon PODs are on the NHC Home page on the left side in the MENU.

Aircraft Recon.

Maybe bookmark dat page.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
855. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



your welcome



it olny takes a little looking a round too find things


lot of red in the gom 95 is looking better each hr...
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2PM
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Quoting reedzone:
I don't buy the Caribbean track.. A trough off the East Coast should influence a northerly track towards the Conus. GFS brings 94L into the GOM, while the ensembles take the storm up the East Coast. I have to go with the ensembles at this time. We have a strong enough ridge to push it west past 60W, then should encounter a trough and move more northwest. Just my opinion.
Fair enough, but I'm with the operational run because that weakness is there, but no trough to pull it up and it will be steered by the Subtropical Ridge until a trough comes down and creates a deep enough weakness to pull it up by that time it will probably be at 80W and then getting ready to make the turn.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Some of these may have been posted but here's the CMC:



NOGAPS:



And UKMET:



I guess the CMC saw the ridge shrinking from a grapefruit to a grape....wow
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Quoting reedzone:
I don't buy the Caribbean track.. A trough off the East Coast should influence a northerly track towards the Conus. GFS brings 94L into the GOM, while the ensembles take the storm up the East Coast. I have to go with the ensembles at this time. We have a strong enough ridge to push it west past 60W, then should encounter a trough and move more northwest. Just my opinion.


East coast huh? Interesting. You mean like Irene?
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Quoting mobileshadow:


I am not seeing any winds over 30mph with that storm now and no reports of damage from NWS chat
great perhaps it has moved on from your area..so much BAD weather in the states today and everyone is going banannas over a storm maybe 5 days away OR more..me im sticking to the bad weather here right now in the states..so much rain is falling gee
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Quoting Doppler22:
94L Depression tonight maybe????




am starting too think so
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is there any for 95L?



plzs look at the post more closey its on there
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94L Depression tonight maybe????And
is there any live cams or shots from the Azores... itd be cool to the conditions there
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is there any for 95L?


the one that is bolded is for 95L
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree, the UKMET for once has been very consistent and may have a better handle on this than the other models.


Agreed.. storm under a large ridge, moving WNW towards a weak trough.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i could see 94L bump up too 80 or 90% at the 8pm two and TD at 11pm or 2am


I agree . DVORAK estimates are T1.5 which supports a TD w/ 30mph winds.
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This is no 45kt TS anymore:

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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting Grothar:
There, I declare a blob.



sir blob
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Quoting atmosweather:


Yes:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Is there any for 95L?
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Quoting wxmobilejim:
Its getting that look.


What look?
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a little closer to home but storms here all day in eastern NC..Outerbanks was under a tornado warning a short while ago




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836. JLPR2
Quoting MadinBoy:



http://meteotropicale.com/

;-)


Thank you!
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Quoting atmosweather:


If you bothered to read the first sentence of his post, he said he is 'responding to this'...therefore he didn't bring it up. It was actually me so if you would like to discuss the matter I'm right here.
I don't have to discuss anything with you.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
StormChaser2007 is getting quite a bit of people to minus his post because I switched over to "Show average" and some of his posts don't show. Be sure to plus them.
The problem is, his posts were "above average" so they weren't displayed. ;)
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Quoting StratoCumulus:


Thanks Taz
I see it now.



your welcome



it olny takes a little looking a round too find things
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The UKMET actually looks reasonable.

I agree, the UKMET for once has been very consistent and may have a better handle on this than the other models.
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18z

OFPI

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94L coming together quickly now.
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Quoting Grothar:
There, I declare a blob.



Where?.......LOL
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Quoting reedzone:
I don't buy the Caribbean track.. A trough off the East Coast should influence a northerly track towards the Conus. GFS brings 94L into the GOM, while the ensembles take the storm up the East Coast. I have to go with the ensembles at this time. We have a strong enough ridge to push it west past 60W, then should encounter a trough and move more northwest. Just my opinion.


but the ridge is currently oriented in a way that 94L could move WSW for a time
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes there is


AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB



95L is all so on the back up navy site


Thanks Taz
I see it now.
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I don't buy the Caribbean track.. A trough off the East Coast should influence a northerly track towards the Conus. GFS brings 94L into the GOM, while the ensembles take the storm up the East Coast. I have to go with the ensembles at this time. We have a strong enough ridge to push it west past 60W, then should encounter a trough and move more northwest. Just my opinion.
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i could see 94L bump up too 80 or 90% at the 8pm two and TD at 11pm or 2am
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Quoting JLPR2:


You got a link to the site that produces those? I have never been able to find it. :\



http://meteotropicale.com/

;-)
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092>095-098-191930-
BEAUFORT-CARTERET-CRAVEN-DUPLIN-JONES-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND
HYDE-ONSLOW-PAMLICO-TYRRELL-WASHINGTON-
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...CRAVEN...DUPLIN...
ONSLOW...JONES...BEAUFORT...CARTERET...WASHINGTON ...MAINLAND DARE...
MAINLAND HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 229 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM COLUMBIA TO CYPRESS CREEK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES SOUTH OF WEEKSVILLE TO 14 MILES EAST OF
WALLACE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&
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.
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Quoting LargoFl:
be careful that storm also might have 70 mph winds


I am not seeing any winds over 30mph with that storm now and no reports of damage from NWS chat
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you seem a little rude and jumpy today



did not get any sleep last night or some in? why not step a way from the key board for a few hrs and come back at the 8pm two

I slept fine.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Some of these may have been posted but here's the CMC:



NOGAPS:



And UKMET:


The UKMET actually looks reasonable.
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817. JLPR2
Quoting weatherh98:


all i see is an open wave


Where did I say it was a closed low? :P
Said: "Definitely a nicer spin getting going there."
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Quoting GetReal:


Any request for a HH yet???



yes

SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT






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Quoting GetReal:


Any request for a HH yet???


Yes:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCC055-191856-
/O.EXP.KMHX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120819T1845Z/
OUTER BANKS DARE NC-
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY EXPIRES AT
245 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NEWPORT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3583 7555 3582 7560 3584 7559 3584 7560
3580 7563 3583 7568 3586 7567 3593 7573
3594 7573 3594 7570 3590 7563 3591 7562
3596 7565 3597 7568 3600 7565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 232DEG 8KT 3588 7564

$$
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813. SLU
Another Caribbean tracker

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.