94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Thanks everyone. We will keep a weather-eye to our southwest and west. Again, thanx
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Here you go Taz

Link

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If 94L is a TD by Tonight we may see a Hurricane before islands



The forecast already implies 90kts/104mph category 2, at the islands...

edit:

The red dots on GFS represent 12 hour increments.

Look where it is at 72 hours(6th line segment,) and what the SHIP says for intensity...

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is there any for 95L?


Come soon to a theater near you!!! They are working on it.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I like StormChaser 2007. Some say he is a wishcaster,I do not and think he has good input for the blog...JMO
Anyone that knows any thing about meteorology isn't a "wishcaster" or "downcaster" -- some people are simply more liberal with their forecasting, while others are more conservative. No big deal.
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Quoting ncstorm:


TA..to break it down for you..

I mean providing I stay within underground guidelines..thats what I meant..of course I know I cant say anything I want..there are rules here but what some people are saying is just childish that dont even apply to the rules..


I think he is messing with you, TA13 is one of the ones that has been on with us posting and looking at the forecast models
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right 94L/TD9 will be a caribbean storm why am I not surprised I say advisorys should start either at 5pm or 11pm this evening or tonight should become TS Isaac tomorrow or Tues
post the alerts when they come out ok
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Quoting redwagon:

Hey Pat, been off internet for a day, I see that little blob S of Cuba is still a swirl now in the gap, albeit naked. Is that the entity that the TCFP is calling for with blue and purple? Did Helene get delisted?



Helene is das Poof..and the Energy,er, Blob that remained just inland on the BOC side is now 95L

The other is a non player.


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904. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
GFS and EURO looked an awful lot alike. Wish models would run on 95l.


looks like it might head NNE
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684 TropicalAnalystwx13: StormChaser2007 is getting quite a bit of people to minus his post because I switched over to "Show average" and some of his posts don't show. Be sure to plus them.

I nearly always do. His postings have a very strong tendency to be relevant-to-the-now with a low-level of speculation. (eg His forecasts are usually in terms of what's-gonna-happen-within-the-next-6hours)
Such qualities make him a target for the trolls who minus him.
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94L/TD9 now located near 14.8N 38.9W moving WSW-S of due W
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Quoting Patrap:


Georges 98 is a good one as well..

No thanks :P
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Quoting reedzone:


Agreed.. storm under a large ridge, moving WNW towards a weak trough.


GFS has been spot on this year....I'm thinking this one is for the Caribbean thru the channel....then it will be ugly. The Caribbean is very "wet" right now. Much different than when the other 2 storms passed thru...
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Quoting weatherh98:


sir blob
Blobococcus...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're not allowed to post or say whatever you want within Weather Underground guidelines.


TA..to break it down for you..

I mean providing I stay within underground guidelines..thats what I meant..of course I know I cant say anything I want..there are rules here but what some people are saying is just childish that dont even apply to the rules..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The dynamical models plots seem to be prognosticating a track that is somewhat reminiscent of 2004's "I" storm -- Hurricane Ivan. A lengthy Caribbean cruiser, with a poleward turn in the northwestern Caribbean. 

Obviously I'm just making a track analogy, and even then, we'll still so far out that any forecast in the long-range should be taken with a grain of salt. 94L could cause many headaches down the road.


Georges 98 is a good one as well..
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Quoting reedzone:


There is only one circulation.. I don't understand why the EURO is having problems with this...

Me neither, with the exception of Ernesto it has been a major letdown this season. I think even the FIM 8 and BAMM statistical model is outperforming it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is new...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191854
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END



yep 96E
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Quoting Patrap:


..Please read the "Disco" that I wrote..


Hey Pat, been off internet for a day, I see that little blob S of Cuba is still a swirl now in the gap, albeit naked. Is that the entity that the TCFP is calling for with blue and purple? Did Helene get delisted?
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts




Let's see, three main groupings.

Group 1, Dud/ TD/40mph the whole way

Group 2, Category 1 near Haiti and Jamaica

Group 3, Strong cat 3/ Weak cat 4 near Haiti and Jamaica
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Patrap:




damn pat..never seen so much rain down here for days and days and days huh have you? outside of something tropical sitting in the gulf?
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This is new...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191854
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this blog is about too get vary busy
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see the NHC buys into the southern track. I still don't.

I hope it does an Ernesto. But it'll probably take the Irene-like path because nature hates me.
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The dynamical models plots seem to be prognosticating a track that is somewhat reminiscent of 2004's "I" storm -- Hurricane Ivan. A lengthy Caribbean cruiser, with a poleward turn in the northwestern Caribbean. 

Obviously I'm just making a track analogy, and even then, we'll still so far out that any forecast in the long-range should be taken with a grain of salt. 94L could cause many headaches down the road.
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Wow as if there isn't enough weather to discuss. People we wait all year for times like this. Relax if you can.
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94L has done well


and 94L is one of them harder invest
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If 94L is a TD by Tonight we may see a Hurricane before islands
lets just say 94 makes it into the straights..would it affect your area any? maybe most of south florida?
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Quoting IceCoast:


Nope, wonder what they will go with on the next advisory. ADT is having a hard time with Tembin because of how small he is and only says 50Kts.



Pretty impressive intensification. Watch how little it moves this whole time:

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Quoting ncstorm:


did you read the last words to the end of the sentence..?

within undergound guidelines

You're not allowed to post or say whatever you want within Weather Underground guidelines.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF having troubles getting a handle on the massive circulation of 94L. Showing 4 vortmax instead of only one.


There is only one circulation.. I don't understand why the EURO is having problems with this...

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Quoting OldLeatherneck:
New Arctic cyclone north of Greenland, August 19, 2012


Here We Go Again!!

Two Cyclones in the arctic ocean is truly a very rare occurence. This certainly will further decimate the arctic sea ice pack, which is already set to obliterate all existing record in volume, area and extent.

The changes in the arctic regions are going to have a very dramatic impact on weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere and across the entire globe.

2nd Arctic cyclone of 2012
yes your right and thank you for the alert on this storm system
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z

OFPI



Question for anyone really, what's the site for that? I had it a few years ago, since lost it.
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If 94L is a TD by Tonight we may see a Hurricane before islands
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right 94L/TD9 will be a caribbean storm why am I not surprised I say advisorys should start either at 5pm or 11pm this evening or tonight should become TS Isaac tomorrow or Tues
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You are not allowed to post or say whatever you want.


did you read the last words to the end of the sentence..?

within undergound guidelines
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Quoting Relix:
I am expecting a renumber for 94L at any time. Its obvious it has gotten its act together at this point.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Renumber should occur a hour or two from now...

Not quite yet. Structure has improved but convection has waned some, DMIN is getting close out there, they'll wait until late tonight at the earliest IMO:

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873. SXMFL
Quoting SXMFL:
Hey all, I know most of you are watching 94l for what's going to happen after the Antilles, but living in SXM, I was just wondering what do you all think about 94L(Irene) hitting us? Just t want to be prepared seeing as our power grid is pretty unreliable too :) TIA!


Anyone???
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The problem is, his posts were "above average" so they weren't displayed. ;)


I like StormChaser 2007. Some say he is a wishcaster,I do not and think he has good input for the blog...JMO
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871. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
I am expecting a renumber for 94L at any time. Its obvious it has gotten its act together at this point.


Nah, at least I don't think so, LLC seems to be getting tighter but it still needs some organized convection, which I think 94L shouldn't have a problem developing tonight.
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GFS and EURO looked an awful lot alike. Wish models would run on 95l.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
I see the NHC buys into the southern track. I still don't.

Just another creepy similarity to Irene. Her forecast track was too far south at first as well.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is no 45kt TS anymore:



Nope, wonder what they will go with on the next advisory. ADT is having a hard time with Tembin because of how small he is and only says 50Kts.

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Quoting ncstorm:


Just let it go..you are able to post what you want..some people just want to dictate how people should post on here..if you dont like someone's post, just move on to the next post..people should be able to post any model runs they want, exclaim, shout, grunt or whatever..I dare someone to tell me I cant post or say what I want within the underground guidelines..
True and yes thank you.
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ECMWF having troubles getting a handle on the massive circulation of 94L. Showing 4 vortmax instead of only one.
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New Arctic cyclone north of Greenland, August 19, 2012


Here We Go Again!!

Two Cyclones in the arctic ocean is truly a very rare occurence. This certainly will further decimate the arctic sea ice pack, which is already set to obliterate all existing record in volume, area and extent.

The changes in the arctic regions are going to have a very dramatic impact on weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere and across the entire globe.

2nd Arctic cyclone of 2012
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Quoting yoboi:


lot of red in the gom 95 is looking better each hr...



yep
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Quoting ncstorm:


Just let it go..you are able to post what you want..some people just want to dictate how people should post on here..if you dont like someone's post, just move on to the next post..people should be able to post any model runs they want, exclaim, shout, grunt or whatever..I dare someone to tell me I cant post or say what I want within the underground guidelines..

You are not allowed to post or say whatever you want.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.