94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pt2















The issue with all of these tracks is that they all started at different points (some of which would not be reachable by 94L), and they occurred at different times of year, with different conditions. I also see landfall on every one of these tracks. None are "fish storms". Might as well pick 14 random tracks.
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3212. Patrap
LOL,

Morn Hydrus.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3211. Grothar
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Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due east from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.

edit due east not west.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ive noticed in Chrome that if I click a post with a quick Double click, they get a 2 fer for free.

So wunderyakuza might wanna check the code for that.

: )


Hey, it worked.

LOL.

Nice catch, that's gotta be a bug.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Recon POD take off @ 12:30est

4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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On the first forecast map I made for 94L, it is currently located almost directly on the center line, but 20 MPH weaker.
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Morning everyone...



Webcam image from Vila do Porto on Santa Maria, southern Azores.
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3205. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


They are just Se of us this am and very dark that way too.

Battery failed in the Jeep so Im waiting for a new one coming from the Auto Zone.

Always when one has Mon appts stuff Happens, had to jump the battery to just get one window up. 2 Dead cells.

But its mt fault for not attending to it Friday I suppose.

Such are Mondays.
And there is delicious ice cold Fresca after 5. Especially when things get bad..jmo...Morning..:)
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As much as most of us are dumping on 94L this morning, I am encouraged by some signs of organization. For the first time, the mid-level spin is not dominating satellite presentation and we have a clear idea about a low level circulation based on the the structure of clouds flowing in/out of the latest convective burst. I have to agree with Reed, if the convection over the center holds on, we should have a TD at 5:00.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.


Slowly shifting north.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting Greenizz:


True Largo.....and with the RNC in town what a nightmare evacuation would be. That said..anytime they start talking Tampa this far out we seem to skate by with nothing...fingers crossed.

lol, if Tampa was in the bulls eye, even if it was in the 5 day cone, it a sure sign of a non hit. Joking of course, but that has been how it has been for years. However, this is one tb area blogger that hopes that continues to hold true.
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Quoting txwcc:

Gee, I never thought of that one...
So DON'T pay attention now though.
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3198. Patrap
I've noticed in Chrome that if I click a post with a quick Double click, they get a 2 fer for free.

So wunderyakuza might wanna check the code for that.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z HWRF took a liking to 94L




One thing I find interesting about that run is the relative size of the system it develops. Looks TINY!

Whereas on the MIMIC TPW, there is a quite large envelope of deep moisture to work. I would think that as outer bands would form and mix out any remaining dust, the system would actually be pretty large in size...


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Wow Patrap! Stunning Lightning in Southern Louisiana!
And headed to North Florida. Yikes.

Cool tip on Plus ID TX! I never knew that.
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Quoting SLU:
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.


And by 18z the next day the GFS dropped it completely.
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Quoting JeffMasters:

The center of 94L was 80 miles to the north-northeast of buoy 41041 at 9 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SSW winds of 16 mph. It'll be interesting to see if the winds go W at 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters
Thanks for the update. once 94L reaches 50W it should move over warmer water and there should be less SAL affecting it.
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3193. Grothar
You think this will come right over my house? :)
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3192. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. It is getting busy.


I saw SFL map and was like what?..let me go get some coffee to give my brain some kick..
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3191. hydrus
Quoting VR46L:


Umm on Thursday and early friday it was a monster fish with the GFS . On Friday evening it was the East coast Monster then it was on a depression on saturday then yesterday it was to wreak havoc on NOLA and Houston and the last night and today it was Florida and convention Doom .they have no idea at the moment and are offering so many solutions they are going to get one right



94L IN RAINBOW

What will you become ? shrugg

We were saying a couple days ago that there would be plenty of doom runs, and there would be hype. Once this is in the Central Caribbean ( which I believe now that it will ) the models and the goys and the NHC will nail the sucker.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I just +1 ed your post. If you mouse over the +1 icon, you can see that I +1 ed it.
Ah, I see, thank you, WxGeekVA! I love learning new things everyday!!
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3188. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
..well looks like your having a better morning today huh pat..gee yesterday you were getting some big rain storms there


They are just Se of us this am and very dark that way too.

Battery failed in the Jeep so Im waiting for a new one coming from the Auto Zone.

Always when one has Mon appts stuff Happens, had to jump the battery to just get one window up. 2 Dead cells.

But its mt fault for not attending to it Friday I suppose.

Such are Mondays.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM for 95L


94L


Whatever happened to "pattern favors recurve out to sea"??
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Quoting ncstorm:
hold up..there is a 96L too??..I cant keep up..LOL


Lol. It is getting busy.
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Dr. M is on it.........Can't wait until his am entry.
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3184. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM for 95L


94L
wow its going to be wild here for a couple of weeks..one after another headed our way
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3183. ncstorm
hold up..there is a 96L too??..I cant keep up..LOL
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Lower than that, even: 0.2%, or 1-in-500...
1.6 % exactly.
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3180. JeffMasters (Admin)

The center of 94L was 80 miles to the north-northeast of buoy 41041 at 9 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SSW winds of 16 mph. It'll be interesting to see if the winds go W at 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just look at 94L rgb again looks like last 1 or 2 frames shows a WSW jog I don't know if thats just because of convection now coming over the LLCOC or if its that true movement though a WSW movement is expected via steering maps


Steering is supposed to nudge it SW or WSW for quite some time.

Maybe the weakness had something to do with the N motion earlier, or maybe the CoC was just so disorganized and elongated that it tightened up higher by chance...who knows.

Steering wants to jog south though, as you've noted.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?


Rest the curser over the number it will tell you who plussed something anyway.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?


I just +1 ed your post. If you mouse over the +1 icon, you can see that I +1 ed it.
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Quoting Matt74:
Man i see the florida casters are out this morning. Still don't even have a storm yet and the models have been all over the place and will continue to be untill we actually get a storm
Of course they are! The tendency with this system appears to be FL at this time. Even with a storm you could have the models all over the place was well. Look at Debby. I think it is understandable that the FLA casters should be concerned, it may be right, iMO.
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3175. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
..well looks like your having a better morning today huh pat..gee yesterday you were getting some big rain storms there
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Quoting txwcc:


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels. And some might be under the impression that he thinks his head is too big and that's he's all that.

That's all, Baha.
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?
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hey guys just look at 94L rgb again looks like last 1 or 2 frames shows a WSW jog I don't know if thats just because of convection now coming over the LLCOC or if its that true movement though a WSW movement is expected via steering maps
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Well, that's something.

Not only did the trough nudge 95L farther out over the water, but it's enhancing it slightly. The water vapor imagery is going crazy right now.

If it doesn't get picked up, then it might be far enough east of the Texas ridge so as to slip behind the trough in the return flow.

Maybe the westward models are wrong after all...

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
8AM for 95L


94L
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Quoting Patrap:
3164. KeyWestwx


Ahh, the Cantore effect was in play.
right! come on down, Jim!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial


TA13, I do think he is trying to tell you something.....

Anyways, i do think 94L will have a big problem with big islands.....
Thats all i have to say for now....ill be back around lunchtime
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3168. Patrap
3164. KeyWestwx


Ahh, the Cantore effect was in play.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3167. LargoFl
Quoting serialteg:
Mornin.

Seems like our canes are not having a good time thru the Atl. passing these past frew years.
well way back in march the NHC said as much..the storms this year would mostly form close to home..and thats what has been happening..at least so far
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
True it is so big it will take Time!!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I see a FAY coming
Fay produced one 50 mph gust, maybe 1/2 inch of rain in Key West. Unfortunately i drove to the beach to watch the waves and as a girl removed her surf board off the top of her car a gust of wind took it out of her hands and into the side of my truck and busted the side window! The weather channel was down the beach trying to make interesting coverage by filming inbetween 2 buildings creating stronger winds, when, I kid you not, sunbathers were 30 ft away lounging on their towels in the sand
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3163. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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