94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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1013. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


Interesting, but some bloggers heads are so large they might not fit on a playing card.


LOL.
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Quoting Barbados:
Where is the LLC at 14.4N? cannot see it

Link


ok go to floater loop and choose RGB or visible
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Boca raton airport (FL) is reporting a 32 degree temperature lmao!


I have always wanted to chase a snow cane :)
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1010. Patrap



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1009. Grothar
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The onion just did a skit on TV mets. Its hilarious but be warned there is some fowl language.

Link


Talking about chickens shouldn't be that bad.
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1008. Dakster
Quoting lovemamatus:
A few years ago, I suggested NHC forecaster trading cards. Imaging owning a 2004 Avila? What a great season he had that year! The stuff of legends.

What I'm thinking now is...how about Dr. Master's Blogger's trading cards? Imagine owning a Patrap or Grothar rookie card? Just the thing we need when the SAL is killing our fun. Thoughts?


Interesting, but some bloggers heads are so large they might not fit on a playing card.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754
The H/Hunters will go out when 94l gets to 52.
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1006. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCC055-192045-
/O.NEW.KMHX.FA.Y.0030.120819T1923Z-120819T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
OUTER BANKS DARE NC-
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUCK...KILL DEVIL HILLS...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 321 PM EDT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES OF
OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION APPROACHING 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 7548 3547 7550 3547 7553 3549 7549
3557 7548 3575 7553 3576 7560 3579 7555
3580 7560 3584 7559 3580 7562 3583 7568
3586 7567 3594 7574 3591 7562 3593 7562
3600 7574 3623 7580 3623 7576 3572 7548

$$
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
what a big hook out to sea?



94L is not going out too sea
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Temblin looks like a cat 3 or 4 imo.
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1003. Houdude
So I take it the GOM development is not being regarded as a regeneration of Helene and would get new TD number and name if it does strengthen??? This despite the fact it's located virtually at the spot of the last Helene advisory and was forecast by the GFS as a regeneration?
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1002. Grothar
Quoting redwagon:

I see 94 STILL has two circulations.. two much bigger ones now. Any talk of them splitting the sheets?


My, you do have a way with words. There has been a strong circulation ahead of 94L since its inception, and other vortices around it. We all had a late discussion the other night about why some models had 94L moving NW. Well, the EMCWF I believe, saw the 2 vortices and thought they there might be a Fujiwhara effect on the main 94L and move it NW. The GFS did not see that scenario. That is why the model split. However, that other circulation is still to the SW of 94L. Sometimes dry air to the North of a system can actually aid in its more westerly movement when the outflow of the system is strong enough aloft. The dry air can sometimes almost act like a ridge.

Let me go now, I have to take nap after all that.
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1000. LargoFl
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
does the spaghetti models mean much are they accurate? alot of them show 94l heading towards east coast florida
days away and things change often
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94L Viz Loop

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I'm going to soon work on my forecast track and intensity forecast for 94L soon I guess I'll cut may vacation short I was going to come back full time tomorrow morning but I guess I can cut it to now so I'm back full time starting in an hour
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I think Levi has the best handle on the storm to be honest.

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Where is the LLC at 14.4N? cannot see it

Link
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Quoting gugi182:
3 Questions......

1.What are the chances of 94L striking Puerto Rico?

2.Should we trust the Ensemble models or the GFS track which is showing more and more the system passing more south than what expected?

3. Will 94L become a TD before 11:59pm of today?


1) Don't know. There's probably an NHC graphic somewhere, but they don't post them on the regular site till it's classified.

2) Wait till next run. I don't like this run either, but the darn thing's consensus has been so good it's hard to question it.

3) Probably not, since there's only one more official advisory between now and then. So even if it did get TD or TS characteristics, you probably won't know till the 2a.m. advisory, since it's unlikely the NHC will classify it by 8p.m. Understand?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
From this afternoon's San Juan NWS discussion of 94L.

MEDIUM RANGE...WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ALL
INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14885
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Boca raton airport (FL) is reporting a 32 degree temperature lmao!
LMAO he must be drinking
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Indoor Temperature
91.8
Humidity 70%
What a way to spend a Sunday
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
is florida safe from all these storms?


It's too early to say right now watch. Best to keep track of it for sure.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Boca raton airport (FL) is reporting a 32 degree temperature lmao!
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Quoting VR46L:


what happened to the sheriff picture . I liked it:)

anyways ..95L a little interesting in rainbow.



I created a Html EMBED code and I attach it to Images sometimes that times out after a spell.


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Quoting mobileshadow:


Very likely to never effect the Conus but for some reason you like saying that every storm this season is going to effect the USA like when you said Ernesto and TD#8 would do when at that time the weather pattern didn't support any thing like that happening


actually 94L has a better chance to impact the US than any of the storms before it this year, except for the 2 that actually did (Beryl and Debby)
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
why is everyone saying that 94l is going far south that what rul out florida right?


Florida, like anywhere else, has not been ruled out.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
981. VR46L
Quoting Patrap:






what happened to the sheriff picture ? I liked it:)

anyways ..95L a little interesting in rainbow.

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Quoting gugi182:
3 Questions......

1.What are the chances of 94L striking Puerto Rico?

2.Should we trust the Ensemble models or the GFS track which is showing more and more the system passing more south than what expected?

3. Will 94L become a TD before 11:59pm of today?

1.) High.
2.) I'd trust the ensembles more than the GFS. They realize a trough should be over the East USA to pick up a storm and turn it more north.
3.) It's possible.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
A few years ago, I suggested NHC forecaster trading cards. Imaging owning a 2004 Avila? What a great season he had that year! The stuff of legends.

What I'm thinking now is...how about Dr. Master's Blogger's trading cards? Imagine owning a Patrap or Grothar rookie card? Just the thing we need when the SAL is killing our fun. Thoughts?


LOL my JFV radar is going off and If you are not Janiel I apologize but it usually does not fool me
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Quoting Grothar:
Even though the models are not out yet for 95L, I will give you a little preview of what they will be. Two of the models will have the system moving back over Mexico. Three of the models have it moving into the Gulf. As the days go back, you should see a shift more towards the Gulf.

I see 94 STILL has two circulations.. two much bigger ones now. Any talk of them splitting the sheets?
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Blob Space..

The Final Frontier..

ta, ta, dahh, da, da, da, dahhhh...



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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
what about dust and wind shear? could they play a role with 94l and keep it small?



94L is going too be a vary big storm so it can fight any wind shear vary good and better then smaller storms can
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Blog moving too fast to keep up, lol...

re: 721. HurricaneHunterJoe 1:32 PM CDT on August 19, 2012

"Didn't know sugar cane liked that much rain?"

LOL, and yes so does the grass which is now impossible to cut on my water-logged property!
Now what the sugar cane would really like is, no damage from tropical cyclones (as Pat mentioned) and a cool, drier fall to sweeten up more!

On that note, overheard chat on TWC this morning that fruits and veggies that have survived the drought, might actually be sweeter, more flavorful... and come to think of it, that was true last year with our drought-plagued citrus here, lot of oranges / satsumas were smaller / less yield but were delicious! On the down side, I harvested absolutely no pecans thanks to pitifully dry Spring. The 17" rains I finally got in July 2011 was too late...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


It seems like Bay News 9 is the only forecast that has the courage to actually show the high rain chances we deserve for the next few days. I don't know why because it's August and significant wet patterns are common this time of year. It's hard to time when the heavier rains will move through but I believe the 40% to 50% that most forecasters are showing into next week is underdone as many of us could potentially 4 to 5 inches with some places getting more will be possible between now and Thursday.

I know it's because there isn't much model agreement, but still. It's quite obvious a wetter solution is evolving instead of drier one.


Bay News nine is definitely the most agressive with every aspect of their forecast, especially during long range cold fronts they could be 5-10 degrees below everyone else in their forecast area (IMO Fox 13 is most conservative) Bay News 9 may overshoot it, but overall it has less long term error.

The reason why stations usually like to keep it conservative is if there is a switch in the models, they don't have to completely switch their forecasts and make viewers happier.
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Don't pay any attention to these models. They don't mean anything. They are too far out and anything can happen. Just ignore them and enjoy the colors. Don't even comment on them. They are just posted to fill in space.


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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
is florida safe from all these storms?
Not in the slightest.
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3 Questions......

1.What are the chances of 94L striking Puerto Rico?

2.Should we trust the Ensemble models or the GFS track which is showing more and more the system passing more south than what expected?

3. Will 94L become a TD before 11:59pm of today?
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
is florida safe from all these storms?


No one is safe from these storms at this point.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754
Quoting mobileshadow:



But 94L poses no threat to the Conus at this time but the wishcasting never stops on here . I actually agree with the Reedzone model with this one but I expect 94L to have to fight if it wants to survive as most CV systems have had to do this season

i disagree. ANY TIME there is a system out there, it causes a potential threat to the CONUS and right now is the time to start watching it. besides, there IS a threat to the CONUS according to the best models.
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The onion just did a skit on TV mets. Its hilarious but be warned there is some fowl language.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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