94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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guys 95L is a new storm



do you guys see any thing from the two that say any thing about the lift overes of Helene i sure dont see any thing



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104




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Troll alert!!!
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1110. GetReal
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1109. LargoFl
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1108. Patrap
Helene's Energy went west to the East pac, and the lil energy Left behind that evolved overnight and this am,is the 95L NEW INVEST designation and is no way a part of the Former Helene.

That's from the Horse's mouth from Ren and Stimpy.

So its fact.


95 L Floater Rainbow Loop

: )




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe you should watch his video for the reasoning.
I just finished watching it; and he used a model for guidance -- a model which has changed since he made the video. ;)

A stronger ridging regime with a more ill-defined weakness pattern is what is setting up this afternoon. But as both of us know, long range forecasts are suceptible to change frequently.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I say 94L is TD9 UNOFFICALLY
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IS ANY OF THE INVESTS 95L OR 96E ASSOCIATED AT ALL WITH THE REMNANTS OF HELENE?


Of course it's Helene.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3253
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for CategoryOne HurricaneGordon for 19August6pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 973millibars to 978millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 85knots(98mph)157km/h to 75knots(86mph)138km/h
Vector changed from 72.5*ENEast@19.8mph(31.8km/h) to 73.8*ENEast@21.5mph(34.5km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: PDL-SaoMiguel :: SMA-SantaMaria

Westernmost dot on the longest line is H.Gordon's most recent position, where it became Cat.1 again

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
19August12amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 135miles(217kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August6amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 88miles(142kilometres)SSEast of SantaMaria (top of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August12pmGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 36miles(57kilometres)SSEast of SantaMaria (straightline projection's endpoint egg,top)
19August6pmGMT: Cat1. H.Gordon was heading for passage 37miles(59kilometres)SouthSouthEast of SantaMaria in ~7&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, 34.975n24.941w-35.655n24.842w, 36.424n24.872w, pdl, 37.736n25.199w, 37.007n25.164w, sma, 34.3n35.0w-34.7n32.6w, 34.7n32.6w-35.2n30.6w, 35.2n30.6w-35.7n28.4w, 35.2n30.6w-36.41n24.869w, 36.928n25.017w-36.41n24.869w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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1101. Patrap
For those who haven't yet.

Bookmark this one.

It can cut down on yer stress levels a tad.

www.nhc.noaa.gov
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
1100. ackee
94L does seem like it moving WSW now
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guys we do not have TD 9
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IS ANY OF THE INVESTS 95L OR 96E ASSOCIATED AT ALL WITH THE REMNANTS OF HELENE?



yes but I don't understand why ATCF has it under new number "95L"


NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z
.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

I heard 101 poeple talking about GOM flight so now I put this up FOR 94l'S FLIGHT please people stop posting about GOM flight we get it already now lets get to 94L's flight
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

lol sorry I scrolled back and didn't see it! My bad!!



thats ok its all way good too re post things
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting tatoprweather:
94L is now TD9.

Uhm, no it isn't...
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1095. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
1094. LargoFl
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Quoting tatoprweather:
94L is now TD9.



no its not
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Boca raton airport (FL) is reporting a 32 degree temperature lmao!


Last week, someone was talking about leaves turning in FLA. Now we know why.
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This is my Afternoon Update video blog Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:



it has 100s of times buy now

lol sorry I scrolled back and didn't see it! My bad!!
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1089. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
sure looks like its getting up steam huh
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Quoting Patrap:


94L Viz Loop

94L is now TD9.
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1087. JLPR2
Quoting Barbados:


Not the latest pass either, this one is:

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1086. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IS ANY OF THE INVESTS 95L OR 96E ASSOCIATED AT ALL WITH THE REMNANTS OF HELENE?

.........NWS said the storms were from some frontal boundery..helene is dissapated
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1085. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting Barbados:


thats an old pass and morning run too
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Not sure this was posted yet:

NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT



it has 100s of times buy now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


This low better not make it to TS before 94L...it's not worthy for the name Isaac
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Not sure this was posted yet:

NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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Holy....
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
do u know what it is?



do i no what is?


what are you talking about
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
1078. Patrap
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today's tweet by JB for 94L. He thinks like Levi.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

MJO handling system in atlantic not jiving with its idea on phase 2/3 mjo. expect further north, stronger trend to develop


..I want to be apart of it, in Ol New York..

JB is consistent though.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
IS ANY OF THE INVESTS 95L OR 96E ASSOCIATED AT ALL WITH THE REMNANTS OF HELENE?

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1075. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:


Thanks Patrap, makes sense. BTW, please feel free to shove all that moisture from the Big Easy WSW about 560 miles as soon as you have had your fill......


I understand that...lotsa areas need it.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4521
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


look closly there is a wind shift near the mark with a slight twist within counterclockwise to boot

it could or can happen

just like the models


guidance only
and never dipict final outcome
to one single event


I'd never dipict a final outcome based on a single event...lol! Thanks, Keeper.
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1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:



not on 95L but there is one on 94L


and in my post taz its POSS T.C.F.A.


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1070. LargoFl
OASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

MDZ014-200200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.Y.0036.120819T2100Z-120820T0200Z/
ANNE ARUNDEL-
314 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* TIDAL ANOMALY...AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION.

* TIMING...AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS
IS 7:29 PM.

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MINOR COASTLINE INUNDATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
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Good Afternoon I see we have 95L around the same area where Helene was,but since she died completely then a number is correct and new name if it develops.
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Today's tweet by JB for 94L. He thinks like Levi.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

MJO handling system in atlantic not jiving with its idea on phase 2/3 mjo. expect further north, stronger trend to develop
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With all of the bizarre weather patterns and occurrences this year, I wouldn't even rule out GA having a land falling tropical system..
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1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting muddertracker:



TCFA on that? Didn't see that one coming..


look closly there is a wind shift near the mark with a slight twist within counterclockwise to boot

it could or can happen

just like the models


guidance only
and never dipict final outcome
to one single event
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1065. LargoFl
.........................rain headed up towards the northeast now
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not on 95L but there is one on 94L
do u know what it is?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They're here for guidance; and they analyse the environment far better than we do.

And even if I look at the pattern, such a poleward track still seems unlikely. With the strength of the subtropical ridge, it'll be difficult for any cyclone to escape the Caribbean, let alone recurve essentially east of the Bahamas.

Maybe you should watch his video for the reasoning.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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