94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
10:30PM - 12:00AM
I hop thats tommorow night
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


and in my post taz its POSS T.C.F.A.




Isn't 95L Helene's remnants?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:


What time zone are you in?

It is put in ZULU time so that no matter where in the world you are, you can figure it out.


A easier way is to pull up your LOCAL radar here on wunderground.

UTC is displayed as well as your Local Zone.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting Dakster:
94L is looking more and more like a gulf storm than a east coast storm... Of course we need to see how this all plays out. It could obviously change several times before it gets remotely close to CONUS or the GOM.


Looking at the current spaghetti map, it looks like the only two states from Texas to Maine not to get a direct hit are Mississippi and Alabama. I guess they can relax and go back to enjoying a Sunday afternoon. *G*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


What time zone are you in?

It is put in ZULU time so that no matter where in the world you are, you can figure it out.
Ohio EDT
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time is That idk those times I am only 14 years old.
10:30PM - 12:00AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. JLPR2
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What time will we get 94L to be a TD
A. Today at 5PM
B. Today at 11PM
C. Tomorrow at 5AM
D. Tomorrow at 11AM
E. Tomorrow at 5PM
F. Tomorrow at 11PM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What time will we get 94L to be a TD
A. Today at 5PM
B. Today at 11PM
C. Tomorrow at 5AM
D. Tomorrow at 11AM
E. Tomorrow at 5PM
F. Tomorrow at 11PM

C.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31547
1154. Dakster
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time is That idk those times I am only 14 years old.


What time zone are you in?

It is put in ZULU time so that no matter where in the world you are, you can figure it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time is That idk those times I am only 14 years old.




its takes off at 00z



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What time will we get 94L to be a TD
A. Today at 5PM
B. Today at 11PM
C. Tomorrow at 5AM
D. Tomorrow at 11AM
E. Tomorrow at 5PM
F. Tomorrow at 11PM
At 5pm
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Q. What time will we get 94L to be a TD
A. Today at 5PM
B. Today at 11PM
C. Tomorrow at 5AM
D. Tomorrow at 11AM
E. Tomorrow at 5PM
F. Tomorrow at 11PM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1150. Dakster
Quoting StormJunkie:


;)Just seein' where the level heads lay around these parts.

Yeah good times...That smell of decomp after Ike was like getting invited to a party at Hugh's place...


Thanks for that mental picture (and smell).

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Quoting Tazmanian:



you need too learn too look at the info when we post it


on the blog


NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT




the time is under line in the blob
What time is That idk those times I am only 14 years old.
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1148. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting presslord:


Why you wanna come in here talkin' sense and ruinin' everybody's fun?!


;)Just seein' where the level heads lay around these parts.

Yeah good times...That smell of decomp after Ike was like getting invited to a party at Hugh's place...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1146. Patrap
ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)


Current Storms:
Invest94
Invest95
Gordon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time HH go into GOM system tommorrow?



you need too learn too look at the info when we post it


on the blog


NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT




the time is under line in the blob
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
Quoting presslord:


Why you wanna come in here talkin' sense and ruinin' everybody's fun?!


Its not sense, currently the forecast models disagree with his thinking on 94L

I doubt this runs right into the Yucatan, the pattern does not favor it, but we will see
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
1142. Dakster
94L is looking more and more like a gulf storm than a east coast storm... Of course we need to see how this all plays out. It could obviously change several times before it gets remotely close to CONUS or the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey press. Y'all survive the storm earlier?

As for 94, y'all still aren't convinced it's headed straight for the Yuc Pen? Just like most every storm this year? As for 95, it will be back in Mexico in no time.


I'm not at all, quite a bit farther north to run into the Yucatan though that is a possibility, the pattern is a bit different.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


Even though 94L may not develop in to the monster everyone is saying it is still 4 days away from being any threat to land unlike 95L which is in an area that storms have been known to form very quickly ,and has some cities below sealevel therefore people in the gulf area, are going to be talking about it as these gulf disturbances can blow up really quick .And the Gulf is very hot ..in fact its rocket fuel and would be the priority right now.
What time HH go into GOM system tommorrow?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1138. Patrap
Riveting aint tropical Meteorology last I checked.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155


not much run yet...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1135. Patrap







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting redwagon:

The only thing I can make of that is one of the forecasters has an ex-wife named Helene and is dead sick of looking at and hearing the name.


Hey, Redwagon:

I finally got rain!!! A good downpour about 2 inches last night.

Our neighborhood missed the July rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey press. Y'all survive the storm earlier?

As for 94, y'all still aren't convinced it's headed straight for the Yuc Pen? Just like most every storm this year? As for 95, it will be back in Mexico in no time.


Why you wanna come in here talkin' sense and ruinin' everybody's fun?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

Of course it's Helene.


no it is not

a tropical cyclone is defined by its circulation, not by its convection

the circulation of Helene fell apart and the leftover energy is now 95L - they are 2 different systems
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Model Diagnostic Plot for 94L

Link
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
1128. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes but I don't understand why ATCF has it under new number "95L"


NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z
.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

I heard 101 poeple talking about GOM flight so now I put this up FOR 94l'S FLIGHT please people stop posting about GOM flight we get it already now lets get to 94L's flight


Even though 94L may not develop in to the monster everyone is saying it is still 4 days away from being any threat to land unlike 95L which is in an area that storms have been known to form very quickly ,and has some cities below sealevel therefore people in the gulf area, are going to be talking about it as these gulf disturbances can blow up really quick .And the Gulf is very hot ..in fact its rocket fuel and would be the priority right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
1126. LargoFl
Im about all burned out, see ya all later when my eyes can focus again LOL....remember to take a break from the puter every now and then................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey press. Y'all survive the storm earlier?

As for 94, y'all still aren't convinced it's headed straight for the Yuc Pen? Just like most every storm this year? As for 95, it will be back in Mexico in no time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All my forecasts this year have pretty much been dead wrong. So knowing my luck, this will indeed pass through the Caribbean instead of curving north of the Islands like I think it will.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31547
1123. Patrap





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting GetReal:
Gulf getting interesting.
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Quoting Dakster:
TAZ - Now we got it 102 times...



LOL
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1120. Dakster
TAZ - Now we got it 102 times...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Holy....
The GFS sure isn't playing; but that's a prime example of a cyclone taking advantage of a favorable GOMex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1118. GetReal
NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1116. Dakster
Quoting presslord:


Hey Press. Nice self portrait.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1115. Patrap
1105. presslord


...I smell steroids
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
guys 95L is a new storm



do you guys see any thing from the two that say any thing about the lift overes of Helene i sure dont see any thing



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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