94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1213 - 1163

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

964MB in to NYC WOW WOW!! one of the 12Z!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Isn't 95L Helene's remnants?


There is a trough in SW Gulf and now an unusually
strong front is pushing South and will stall from
SE La. to Tx/Mx border. I am in Central Gulf at
27.7 N and 92 W We have had 20-30 kt S-SW winds
all day and now getting storms along the frontal
boundary..More like a Fall type event.... will be
interesting to see what happens with Helenes remnants
and the frontal boudary once it goes stationary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Everyone! Would Hurricane Charley be consider a analouge storm for 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOT good for S FL one of the 12Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1207. bappit
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Link??

Check the url on that image. I don't know which one you are referring to or I'd do it myself.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't use models. Just look at the pattern.

Use the force ...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
Hmm, this is soooo similar to Ike. They said it was gonna go to the east coast but it didnt. Now the GFS is saying GOMEX....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1205. Walshy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think Levi has the best handle on the storm to be honest.



I think it gets deeper into the Caribbean than that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Can you post link to these ensembles...


Been waiting on your analysis. Let me guess, it's going to recurve or die a miserable death
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 19
Location: 36.1°N 27.5°W
Moving: ENE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Altestic2012:
****************94L TD9 ISAAC POLL****************

A. Fish (poss. Islands + Bermuda, for you PC-shippers)
B. East Coast hit
C. Florida hit, and north into the Southeast
D. Florida and Gulf Coast dual hit
E. Caribbean, then Gulf Coast hit
F. Caribbean, then Yucatan/Mexico hit
G. Caribbean, then Central America hit
Don't call it TD9 or Isaac... and it's way too early for predictions...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1201. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Keep, that clock takes forever to load and is so large is makes the whole blog have to scroll sideways. Can you repost a smaller version or delete it? Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery 94L animated.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1199. yoboi
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH JACKSON THROUGH BEAUMONT THIS
EVENING...WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...EXITING INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL MIDWEST AIR WILL TRAVEL INTO THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING FROT.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDWEEK...SHOVING STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 91 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 72 91 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 89 66 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 71 89 70 90 69 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
JT

$$

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILikeIke:
Hey yall. New guy here. Is there still a chance that 94L aka "future Isaac" will go up the east coast? I live by the outer banks and just wondering weather to expect another irene. Also, before I moved there, I lived in Texas and got hit by Ike(hence my name). Why do "I" storms not like me?



too early too tell yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:


Taz sometimes the question is just an icebreaker to the conversation.
You could answer the question by stating the post that is relevant and not be so uninviting.

I remember when you were just starting on here Taz.
You could give others the same leeway.

What would Aqua Do?



i guss i could give them a ch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Hey, Redwagon:

I finally got rain!!! A good downpour about 2 inches last night.

Our neighborhood missed the July rains.

Me, too! They were high enough for the hills not to break them up.

I wanted Helene's Eastern energy to keep her name so we would have two H storms to remember as lifesavers. It's not like we didn't watch her split in two. But if the NHC wants a clean slate with it, fine, let's see them explain it in post-season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Altestic2012:
****************94L TD9 ISAAC POLL****************

A. Fish (poss. Islands + Bermuda, for you PC-shippers)
B. East Coast hit
C. Florida hit, and north into the Southeast
D. Florida and Gulf Coast dual hit
E. Caribbean, then Gulf Coast hit
F. Caribbean, then Yucatan/Mexico hit
G. Caribbean, then Central America hit

B.

The pattern does not favor a Gulf Coast track. All of the good analogue storms for this invest hit the East Coast or went out to sea between the USA and Bermuda.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting Altestic2012:
****************94L TD9 ISAAC POLL****************

A. Fish (poss. Islands + Bermuda, for you PC-shippers)
B. East Coast hit
C. Florida hit, and north into the Southeast
D. Florida and Gulf Coast dual hit
E. Caribbean, then Gulf Coast hit
F. Caribbean, then Yucatan/Mexico hit
G. Caribbean, then Central America hit


H. Too early to tell and too early to post polls
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
1190. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys 95L is a new storm



do you guys see any thing from the two that say any thing about the lift overes of Helene i sure dont see any thing



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


nws in lake charles will have an update at 5pm..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1189. Patrap
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Remember it's also in military time too.


As a USMC Air Wing Vet,I'm well aware, but thanks fer sure.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
1186. bappit
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Someone a blog back asked why the GFS is south and west of the GEFS members. The only thing I am aware of is that the GEFS members are lower resolution. Does anyone know if a poleward bias comes from a lower resolution?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
1185. Gerbick
The GOM is definitely getting interesting right now. I am currently offshore at work on a platform in the Garden Banks area which is about 130 miles south of Morgan City. The rain and wind are hellacious and is coming in wave after wave. If a tropical storm forms on top of us we will be screwed, the choppers won’t come get us. At least I’ll have some nice video!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Patrap

www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
1183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time is That idk those times I am only 14 years old.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


A easier way is to pull up your LOCAL radar here on wunderground.

UTC is displayed as well as your Local Zone.




Remember it's also in military time too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still interesting to look at invest ahead of 94L. Definitely would be developing if not for 94L, but I do think it may be creating a little pull to the south on 94L to me it's like they are slightly connected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What time will we get 94L to be a TD
A. Today at 5PM
B. Today at 11PM
C. Tomorrow at 5AM
D. Tomorrow at 11AM
E. Tomorrow at 5PM
F. Tomorrow at 11PM
A,B,C,D,E, and F of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks for that mental picture (and smell).



Had to buy Vicks vapo rub and put a dab of it under the nose when working in Winnie. It was a mixture of piles of marsh, dead cattle, and some seafood distributor where the freezers had been off too long. And then I'm still pretty convinced that some of the smell was coming from what took place on Bolivar Pen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Link??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Japanese Model 72 hrs. out precip.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




???
wrong wording sorry I have butter fingers type wrong words. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
There not I looked.




???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



not from what i can tell from the nhc 2pm update


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
There not I looked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I realize this is heresy to some around here...but...the forecast models just don't mean a hell of a lot to me at this point...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can see that Gordon is now so far to the NE that he doesn't have a floater anymore. Guess I'll just make my own.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Riveting aint tropical Meteorology last I checked.

: )


Nope and it's not Avionics or ability to use a key board either :)

Just seems to me that the logical answers for now are that 95 heads right back to Mexico, and 94 stays south. 94 is a little more tricky imho non-expert opinion though. It's a large system and it has at least some chance of getting pulled north at some point over the next week. BUT, I still think there is a decent chance it rams right in to the Yuc like everything else this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Isn't 95L Helene's remnants?



not from what i can tell from the nhc 2pm update


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Can you post link to these ensembles...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well this is for Pat and Get Real.I think they will get this.Buddy Dileberto comes down from heaven.He is now doing a show called haps weather point after.the wunderground blogger's ask him what do you think the storm will do? Buddy awnsers him in that gruf tone well, if if ands and buts were candies and nuts and the queen had a different anatomy she would be queen.them stormtop tells him no it will be a cat 6 in the middle of poydras street.Buddy awnsers,is it Hallowween?where do these nuts come from?Then Buddy calls him a squirrell and hags up.Little laugh for a rainy day.Gods speed Pat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


not much run yet...


Nice, the BAMMS thinks this is Helene still.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
10:30PM - 12:00AM
I hop thats tommorow night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1213 - 1163

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.