94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1313 - 1263

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Quoting presslord:
Does it ever occur to any of you arrogant asshats that there might be more to it than just spelling and grammar?!?!


Nah, because correcting the spelling and grammar of complete strangers on the internet, who won't appreciate the correction anyway, is always such an efficient use of everyone's time that we'll do that first.

On topic, someone mentioned webcams for the Azores? Any links still available?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Sorry if this was posted but the HWRF has jumped on to development:

once again in the carribean again...
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
CPC has a lot of green in the East... I don't know if that's 94L related though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1310. bappit
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi or Misswx... why is 95L an invest when it is a remnant low of Helene. Wouldn't they use Ex or remnants of Helene? Why are they moving on to a new name?

They are distinct as nrtiwlnvragn recently pointed out.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Different coordinates between Invest 95L and Helene for the same date/timestamp:


AL 95 2012081818 BEST 0 215N 978W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081900 BEST 0 215N 979W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081906 BEST 0 216N 980W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081912 BEST 0 217N 981W 20 1010 DB



AL 07 2012081818 BEST 0 225N 987W 25 1009 TD
AL 07 2012081900 BEST 0 227N 989W 25 1009 LO
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5913
ok my model is in gray and labled CHC

it is a mix of the TCVN and the AVNI



intensity forecast mine is in Gray

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting MississippiWx:


The surface circulation of Helene most likely dissipated, leaving only mid-level remnants which are now interacting with the surface trof over the Western Gulf.


Thanks very much!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1307. yoboi
Quoting yoboi:
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH JACKSON THROUGH BEAUMONT THIS
EVENING...WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...EXITING INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL MIDWEST AIR WILL TRAVEL INTO THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING FROT.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDWEEK...SHOVING STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 91 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 72 91 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 89 66 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 71 89 70 90 69 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
JT

$$




looks like more rain for louisiana later this week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi or Misswx... why is 95L an invest when it is a remnant low of Helene. Wouldn't they use Ex or remnants of Helene? Why are they moving on to a new name?




Helene went poof overe MX there are no lift overes


95L is a hole new thing at so from the 2pm two there is no wording of Helene on it





SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1305. Patrap
Ike was a full Month Later at landfall almost so the analogue is skewed by climo one could say.
But I understand yer drift.

That's what we do here, share and learn, well until..u know
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi or Misswx... why is 95L an invest when it is a remnant low of Helene. Wouldn't they use Ex or remnants of Helene? Why are they moving on to a new name?


The surface circulation of Helene most likely dissipated, leaving only mid-level remnants which are now interacting with the surface trof over the Western Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry if this was posted but the HWRF has jumped on to development:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1302. bappit
Quoting bappit:

Someone a blog back asked why the GFS is south and west of the GEFS members. The only thing I am aware of is that the GEFS members are lower resolution. Does anyone know if a poleward bias comes from a lower resolution?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5913
Quoting Patrap:


Dunno, maybe ask the Junkie


:0


Sure does y'all. That's why they have labeled it invest 95L (L is used for Atlantic storms). And may actually develop before it heads back in to Mexico or extreme S Texas. Glad to help out anytime I can, although I'm not an expert by any means. Always learning just like y'all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
im thinking this is a floyd/fran/irene type track...basically the same pattern at the present time and the same models that said they all were going south into the carib, and they didnt.... went near Puerto rico up the bahamas chain or just east making landfall near the N.C. coast. Same time of year give or take a week for all those storms, all were cape verd storms/waves as well. Statistically more of these storms curve north or make an east coast landfall, many do not go into the carib/gulf. JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1299. Patrap
Quoting washingtonian115:
You on to something Pat?.I'm not yet sold on a Caribbean cruzer yet.I think a Irene track is more likely.JMO....


Dunno, I never forecast, I'm not a met.

More a color Analyst one could say.

: )

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Why initial position and "Analog storms" don't matter too much...

Ike

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILikeIke:
I wonder if the Low that was Helene could reform into a depression before 94L forms and then it would be Joyce. Possible?

First of all, if the remanants WERE to reform it would still be called Helene.
Second, 95L is not the remanants of Helene.
Third, it couldnt become Joyce if it forms before 94L.
It would be Issac.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Models are going to continue to disagree and struggle before this very large invest consolidates into something more trackable and manageable for the computers. You know there is a lot of uncertainty in the model forecasts when you see the GFS and ECMWF operational runs being outliers compared to their respective ensemble sets.

The GFS operational is south of every single one of its ensemble members. That is pretty weird.


Im telling you this is so similar to Ike. They said it would go to the east coast but it didnt. One of the GFS runs points to GOMEX and has it hitting Texas.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
94L has everything it needs to be classified except convection. DMAX tomorrow morning should help that out. Look for classification at that time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
You on to something Pat?.I'm not yet sold on a Caribbean cruzer yet.I think a Irene track is more likely.JMO....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Levi or Misswx... why is 95L an invest when it is a remnant low of Helene. Wouldn't they use Ex or remnants of Helene? Why are they moving on to a new name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1292. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
Me tinks maybe we have the surface Circ.


I see some arc clouds racing north on the east side of circulation. Looks like they are low level and the apparent circulation is mid level. Also shows dry air affecting it.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5913
Quoting Levi32:
The GFS operational is south of every single one of its ensemble members. That is pretty weird.



I thought so too. Not very often you see the GFS outside of the ensemble envelope. Hell, I didn't even think it was possible for that to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Models are going to continue to disagree and struggle before this very large invest consolidates into something more trackable and manageable for the computers. You know there is a lot of uncertainty in the model forecasts when you see the GFS and ECMWF operational runs being outliers compared to their respective ensemble sets.

NHC should start using the term 'hydrus' for multi-circ storms like these instead of 'invest'. When down to one center of circulation, then you get labeled an invest.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3091
Quoting Patrap:
Me tinks maybe we have the surface Circ.



And from the graphics the very last frame or two, looks to be building some convection near what looks to be the COC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1287. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Appears that blob in the western gulf has some spin going on.


Dunno, maybe ask the Junkie


:0
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting Patrap:


Appears that blob in the western gulf has some spin going on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Models are going to continue to disagree and struggle before this very large invest consolidates into something more trackable and manageable for the computers. You know there is a lot of uncertainty in the model forecasts when you see the GFS and ECMWF operational runs being outliers compared to their respective ensemble sets.
good point. is the 12z GFS track REALISTIC?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
1282. Patrap
Me tinks maybe we have the surface Circ.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting palmasdelrio:




am with you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1280. Patrap
EASILY the best Tropical Page on the net.

Tropical Weather & Hurricanes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
1279. Levi32
Models are going to continue to disagree and struggle before this very large invest consolidates into something more trackable and manageable for the computers. You know there is a lot of uncertainty in the model forecasts when you see the GFS and ECMWF operational runs being outliers compared to their respective ensemble sets.

The GFS operational is south of every single one of its ensemble members. That is pretty weird.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
any proof there is a surface low with 94L? I believe it has one but havent seen anything to prove it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




no one spelling is %100 so why not we move on

I agree. When I first joined the blog, it bothered me. But I realized that the important thing is that we understand each other. Let's not worry about spelling and dictionaries and just provide accurate information now that a disturbance is probably going to affect a whole lot of people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Different coordinates between Invest 95L and Helene for the same date/timestamp:


AL 95 2012081818 BEST 0 215N 978W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081900 BEST 0 215N 979W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081906 BEST 0 216N 980W 20 1009 DB
AL 95 2012081912 BEST 0 217N 981W 20 1010 DB



AL 07 2012081818 BEST 0 225N 987W 25 1009 TD
AL 07 2012081900 BEST 0 227N 989W 25 1009 LO
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10838
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94L won't be classified until it gets some real convection:



Very good point MAwb. It's frustrating when folks only look at pretty enhanced rainbow images, or low scaled IR imagery. it can be misleading. That's one reason I like the GHCC site.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe 94L is full steam ahead!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As of right now, most of us can speculate that 94L will hit the northern leewards. After there, there is a big ? East coast hit? recuruve out to sea? Gulf storm? who knows? we dont and we wont know until 94L gets named and tracks further west
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting MississippiWx:
Despite what the models say, I have a hard time believing 94L will be a Caribbean tracker. The pattern supports a system that goes just north of the Caribbean or into the extreme NE Caribbean near the Northern islands and PR. I have looked at the predicted 500mb pattern from the GFS for 8 days out and came up with the top analogs for the dates mentioned. Almost every single analog was a system that recurved between Bermuda and the United States. Several of them impacted the East Coast from Florida all the way to the NE.

Predicted 500mb pattern for days 8-11:


Top Storm Analogs from this Pattern:





As you can see, the best analogs for the time frame do not even come close to entering the Gulf. Strength of the tropical cyclone will certainly make a difference and I'm just giving you analogs for developed systems. If for some reason 94L is not a tropical cyclone before reaching the islands, then it will probably be similar to Ernesto/Helene and not strengthen until further west. We have entered into a pattern with a cold PDO, warm AMO and El Nino all present at the same time. This was a pattern very common in the 1950s when the East Coast received several strikes from hurricanes. Does this mean the Gulf/W Caribbean should not pay attention? Of course it doesn't. However, I'm just giving you clues on what to expect, even if the models are not explicitly showing it right now.


An excellent post, many thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L is getting some spin on. Last few frames. Viz
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 292
Oh there is more than enough of that to go around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L won't be classified until it gets some real convection:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Circulation of 94L showing improved definition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1265. Patrap
World of Warcraft

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting gordydunnot:
Presslord, maybe extrapolated vocabulary ? Me thinks.


maybe you're right...I shouldn't have said 'arrogant'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1263. java162
Quoting stormpetrol:


does that mean wsw movement for a while?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1313 - 1263

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.