94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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1463. LargoFl
how far back is mountain time? ... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 324 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAUGHN...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. GO TO A SAFE PLACE NOW.

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My bad this one must be right of the Conus somewhere. Back to Geography school I guess.
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1461. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting SLU:
Trending stronger. Also initialised about 1.5 degrees too far north like the EURO ..


Not developing 95L?
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1459. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1458. SLU
Trending stronger. Also initialised about 1.5 degrees too far north like the EURO ..

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5144
1457. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1456. Patrap
www.solarham.net

Added 8/19/2012 @ 21:15 UTC

Farsided Solar Flare and CME

A moderate to strong solar flare took place earlier this afternoon off the farside of the Sun. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now visible in STEREO Ahead COR2 images. The source appears to be old Sunspot 1538. The flare itself was captured by STEREO Behind in the image below.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
1455. LargoFl
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1454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1453. Levi32
I'm still having a hard time believing that 94L would continue nearly due west right into the heart of the Caribbean, unless it never becomes a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles (using ECMWF here for example) show the deep-layer subtropical ridge centered directly north of the storm along 55W in 2 days, which would support westerly movement, but by Day 5 the deep-layer ridge has shifted quite far to the east along 30-40W, and the ridging between 80W and 60W is much softer, which would suggest that any kind of a strengthening tropical cyclone near the Antilles would start to gain some significant latitude.

ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 48 hours:



ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 120 hours:

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
94L will probably start ingesting some of that dry air into the core once it hit's TD status; that and the current forward speed of 20-25 mph is what will probably keep it in check on approach to the Antilles. Once it filters out that dry air and can reach TS status (and slows down) it could be a dangerous storm after the Antilles baring significant land interaction with the Greater Antilles depending on the track...JMO.


Personally 94L IMO isn't going 20-25mph today , 94L has slowed quite a bit today IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
1451. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:


Blob-a-tite's ?



Kind of like stalagtites...I like it. :)
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1450. LargoFl
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WunderKidCayman...I'd caution you that the only other time this blog had a poster forecast every single storm to be a major affecting him...it was user STORMTOP.....he unfortunately got his wish fulfilled on the K storm as his home was destroyed by Katrina.
.
It's bad karma.
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I do agree that a turn north is likely with 94L, but I dont think this will go north of the islands
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
The Subtropical Ridge is a tad bit stronger on this run at 54 hrs. as well as 1008 mb. storm.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually it doesn't, climatology is depicted by the clp5 model; which as of 18Z, moves it NNE into Texas



I think he was referring to short term climatology, not the longer term data that is used for the Clippers.
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Thanks I guess as usual the good old US always gives it a way. Lucky we've never done anything for Europe.
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1444. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Gordon is no Longer a threat to the CONUS, would be my guess.




idk man it is the mayan end of times....lol
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94L IS NOT MOVING SO FAST...............
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Hello everyone I have been reading the post here about the models and would like to say what I think about the models IMO. What we are seeing in the models for 94L & 95L is where these storms will go if they stay weak, because weak storms tend to not feel the northward pull from the upper Atmosphere because of low cloud tops. strong Tropical Storms or Hurricanes have high cloud tops feel and get caught up in the Ridge in the upper Atmosphere and are pulled northward. So long story short, these models are way off right now if 94L gets to Hurricane force before reaching the Antilles islands IMO. what do you guys think, Am I right or wrong about this.

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Air360 good thing Levi has his own blog. You probably wouldn't have to put up with this nonsense if you just stayed there.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Gordon
Maybe weakening or beginning the transition to extra-tropical storm.
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1438. bappit
Quoting gordydunnot:
Bappit it looks like nighttime there or they got hit by a CME.

Yeah, been watching it off and on. I think they are getting too much traffic though it may be night by now.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Answer me this anyone. How come the NHC post floaters of every tropical system in the world but drops Gordon when he is close to running over land. Riddle me that batman.


A. NHC does not control floaters, Sattelite Services Division of NOAA does.

B. Gordon has moved out of the range of GOES satellites (east of 30W). My guess is ECMWF will not freely distribute their satellite images, so no floater.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11165


Gordon

(FREE via METEOSAT. : )
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Quoting atmosweather:


Climatology suggests it should end up retrograding back W-ward into Mexico. Looking at what we have it looks good to me, the shorwaves will round the base of the eastern US trough and as that front lifts out it should allow ridging to develop over the NW-ern Gulf and it will be forced to go back inland.


Thanks atmos. So basically, there will not be enough of a weakness left by the front to allow it to move N before the high builds back and pushes it west?
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1434. sar2401
Quoting gordydunnot:
Answer me this anyone. How come the NHC post floaters of every tropical system in the world but drops Gordon when he is close to running over land. Riddle me that batman.


I think it's because it's already at the eastern edge of the GOES-E full disk range and doesn't have much coverage that far east.
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Bappit it looks like nighttime there or they got hit by a CME.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Answer me this anyone. How come the NHC post floaters of every tropical system in the world but drops Gordon when he is close to running over land. Riddle me that batman.
Too far NE
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1430. air360
~~beginrant~~
Just a quick vent - I get so tired of seeing people give forecasts and predictions and make themselves sound 100% confident...yet never say why...or if they do its like a one liner reason why.
I have come to the conclusion that out of everyone here there is really only a few who truly know what they are talking about. Which would usually be fine as this is a forum for anyone and everyone interested in weather..but it gets all screwed up when everyone starts making forecasts like they are seasoned mets.
(One of) the only people (that I'm aware of) here that gives forecasts and predictions that are at least backed up by reasoning is Levi32. I look forward to seeing every post he makes and especially every video he makes. He gives a full meteorological and scientific reasoning for every forecast he gives...and nine times outta ten after watching his videos you can't help but sit there and say "Well that makes perfect sense...I gotta say I agree with that or at least see where he is coming from". And then even if it doesnt turn out like that in the end you cant help but say "Well, it didnt turn out like he first said..but at that time it still made darn good sense..oh well maybe next time" - so props to ya man! Thanks for everything you do!

Its almost comical though that almost every single time someone makes a forecast and mentions an island, state, or some other land mass, you can look at their profile or even username and tell that they are very very near to whatever land they said a storm was going. Its ridiculous.

I am not saying everyone is like that - there are some very very knowledgeable people here...but come on..lets at least keep this as factual as possible and if you are going to comment at least have logical reasoning of why you say what you are saying...

~~endrant~~
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1429. Patrap
Gordon is no Longer a threat to the CONUS, would be my guess.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting Levi32:


I see the high is pressing pretty far south right now, but 94L would have to make up a bit of ground before being forced WSW by that steering flow. Let's look at what happens during that time. The high is pressing south at 0 hours, but remember we have a front advancing eastward over the SE United States, and the effect of advancing fronts on the ridges to their east is usually to amplify them and move them more poleward. The GFS shows that this will happen within the next 48-60 hours and result in the pressure from the high easing as 94L nears the Caribbean, thereby allowing a west or WNW movement.

0 hours 700mb:



60 hours 700mb:



somebody give that boy a Gold Star...this is the most informative post of the day...
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Quoting Patrap:


Dunno, I never forecast, I'm not a met.

More a color Analyst one could say.

: )



And a fine one at that sir.
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Quoting bappit:
azores web cam
Thanks!
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18z GFS 24 hrs.

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Quoting louisianaboy444:


LOL back off hes just a kid he wants a storm


dude I am not a kid... not even a teenager anymore too old to be either and no I do not want a storm

Quoting Tropicalupdate:
what u think will happen @ 8 pm with 95 L

A: 30%
B: 40%
C: 50%
D: 60%


knowing how the NHC is they may put it at A 30% or maybe B 40%

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Answer me this anyone. How come the NHC post floaters of every tropical system in the world but drops Gordon when he is close to running over land. Riddle me that batman.
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94L will probably start ingesting some of that dry air into the core once it hit's TD status; that and the current forward speed of 20-25 mph is what will probably keep it in check on approach to the Antilles. Once it filters out that dry air and can reach TS status (and slows down) it could be a dangerous storm after the Antilles baring significant land interaction with the Greater Antilles depending on the track...JMO.
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Gosh Dang, Im getting behind on the blog.Some very interesting posts. Keep up yhe good work. Im on page 27....lol
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1419. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:


LOL, so much easier when you can cut and paste eh Patrap? Maybe third times a charm...


Well with my System..its easier one could say.


One should see my entertainment tabs presently.

: )


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting atmosweather:


Climatology suggests it should end up retrograding back W-ward into Mexico. Looking at what we have it looks good to me, the shorwaves will round the base of the eastern US trough and as that front lifts out it should allow ridging to develop over the NW-ern Gulf and it will be forced to go back inland.


actually it doesn't, climatology is depicted by the clp5 model; which as of 18Z, moves it NNE into Texas

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
1417. JLPR2
New 850mb vort map, 94L looking better, though it is hard for me to believe that the vort of the TW ahead of it is in fact stronger than it was last update.
Seems like they are not hurting each other.



Also... it seems 94L is sort of linked to the ITCZ.
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1416. j2008
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.These gulf system are known to spin up fast.
Yes they do, thats what I've noticed. Certainly is spinning up pretty fast but it still has alot of work to do, could see a storm in < 48 hours though if this pace continues. I just still think 94L will beat it out.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


True. I would love to see some predictions from the regulars here on what and where 95 will be in two days.

I've already thrown my guess out...Mexico bound. Strictly a guess.


Climatology suggests it should end up retrograding back W-ward into Mexico. Looking at what we have it looks good to me, the shorwaves will round the base of the eastern US trough and as that front lifts out it should allow ridging to develop over the NW-ern Gulf and it will be forced to go back inland.
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1414. bappit
Quoting ILikeIke:

is it starting to spin?

I look at that pic and Rubberband Man goes through my head.
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1413. gugi182
You guys want to know where 94L will go? You guys heaved been doing it all wrong it's so easy. If you want to know where he will go, why don't you just ask him for yourself. Anybody has 94L cell number or Facebook so we could personally tell us where he wants to go. Only he knows and he's keeping it a secret. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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