94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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3263. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.


Opal in 95 went from the BOC and took a beeline NE into NW Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DookiePBC:
Wow...looking at the blog this morning it is clear that:

BLOG RAPID INTENSIFICATION FLAG = ON

With a model or 2 showing a hurricane in the vicinity of FL in the next week or so, we probably should be hearing from the DOOM::CON committee shortly. I can only imagine that we will need an upgrade to the status.

wrong site you need the enhance smileys blog for that or maybe no one is there thats why yer here
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3260. pottery
Good morning.
Beautiful day here at 11n 61w.

Looking at 94L is like looking at an old detective movie.....
What happens next????
Who done it????
Keep tuned ! The scriptwriters haven't got it worked out yet, either.
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Quoting bamagirl1964:
I know it is is extremely early and very uncertain, but I could JUST CRY and could use some of your very valuable input. My husband and I are 48 years old and are taking our very first cruise next weekend. We will leave from Miami to the Bahamas from next Friday, August 24th to Monday, August 27th. What are your thoughts on our cruise and if the worst case scenario occurs and 94L comes to the Bahamas, what would the cruise line do? I did take out the vacation protection package, but I am hoping for the best as I have been waiting for this for a very long time! Thank you so much for any input you can give me!


I know this is somewhat dated, as I am just catching up on the blog, but fwiw.

My wife and I always book cruises during the hurricane season because the ships can always change ports and go other places, and they will usually give you on-board credit or other compensation for the trouble. It is a risk, but can be a very nice benefit also.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Wrong Way Lenny

Thanks, kinda like "Wrong way Corrican" infamous aviator of past era, who fly the wrong way.
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3256. Patrap
Quoting txwcc:
I couldn't imagine the carnage over the years of Miami and south Florida if the landmass of Cuba was not there.

Hard to fathom.

Unless you get an Andrew that comes from the due East. Then you can get really slammed.


Most Along the Northern Gulf Coast to Brownsville consider Florida our First Barrier Island, so thanx for being there.

: )
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Quoting emcf30:


No, but you will be on the bad side.
Modelcasting DOOM LMAO

Smack dab in the middle of the RNC lol
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3254. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
AL952012 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

..looks like it IS going to mix with the trough
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3251. Patrap
AL952012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

WOW!! DOOM!!

No but seriously, why are you changing your forecast based on every run of the GFS model?


you will see...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial
Right through VA. I wouldn't have guessed...
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3248. LargoFl
Quoting jeffs713:


OMG! I have to start getting prepared! Only 360 hours to go!

LOL...you know..we here get a good head start IF this comes our way ..why...because we..are sitting here watching it..you would be surprised ..millions in florida are not even aware its out there.............Thank you doc for making this blog, know it or not..you are saving alot of people
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Dont know what a er, "AGW crowd" is, as I favor this statement whenever that Label is tozzed at folks feet.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”

― Neil deGrasse Tyson




Well, the statement isn't exactly true.

"Science" is the study of reality.

The problem with that statement is that people tend to stand on existing theory as being "true" and refuse to admit gaps in it, or apply the theory to something it cannot logically be applied to. Ironically, the scientists themselves do this more than anyone else.


"Science" and "truth" are not identical.

"Science" is the search for Truth about the world and universe, and it is actually wrong all the time, more often than not, in fact.

science  
sci·ence
noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
2.
systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained through observation and experimentation.
3.
any of the branches of natural or physical science.
4.
systematized knowledge in general.
5.
knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematic study.



People, even all people at times, misunderstand what they "know," even within the body of "science".


What you know or what you think you know is not necessarily the truth, it's at best a model that approximates the truth, unless you're very lucky.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
3246. Patrap
AL952012 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Don't you mean 'due east from Mx to Fl'?
Yes, due east. West from mx to FL would be quite the feat. lol. I corrected my post, thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow...looking at the blog this morning it is clear that:

BLOG RAPID INTENSIFICATION FLAG = ON

With a model or 2 showing a hurricane in the vicinity of FL in the next week or so, we probably should be hearing from the DOOM::CON committee shortly. I can only imagine that we will need an upgrade to the status.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes

WOW!! DOOM!!

No but seriously, why are you changing your forecast based on every run of the GFS model?
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3242. Patrap
94L


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3241. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
We were saying a couple days ago that there would be plenty of doom runs, and there would be hype. Once this is in the Central Caribbean ( which I believe now that it will ) the models and the goys and the NHC will nail the sucker.


Yep they sure got Debbys initial offical track spot on ...North Texas if I recall lol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.


Thanks and yes I meant due east. West would be quite he feat. Right, from boc to w coast fl. Thanks for your answer.
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Looking for a working webcam on the east coast of Taiwan. Anyone find one yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3238. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes
..geez we do not need this traveling up the middle of florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3237. LargoFl
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due east from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.

edit due east not west.
..nws said IF it goes northeastward..it will mix in with the trough, some models have all that rain going into north florida, like debby did..those folks up there do NOT..need that once again
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right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


15.7 N, 45.0 W.
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Wrong Way Lenny

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3233. Patrap
like fish in a Barrel sometimes it is.


:0
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Quoting txwcc:


You see the 12Z GFS, Jeff? It put a bullseye right over Tomball!


OMG! I have to start getting prepared! Only 360 hours to go!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due west from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I come back from taking my son to get a school physical, and there is a 96L now? Choo! choo!, goes the wave train!
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Double clicking will give 2 pluses + but when you refresh it reverts back to just one
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could 95L make it before 94L? Who could be Isaac
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3225. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
You think this will come right over my house? :)


No, but you will be on the bad side.
Modelcasting DOOM LMAO

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial

My mom and dad get a hurricane for their birthday. Thanks Mother Nature, lol.
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3223. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:


*le wild naked swirl appears!

Suddenly, convection!
..its getting closer to the warmer waters
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Quoting txwcc:


Firefox allows 4 quickies. Daddy likes!


ive got a minute so id thought id respond to this.

This idea is ridiculous because as soon as you refresh the page it should return to only haven given you one +1 on the post.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
Good morning Pat! Gonna be a hectic day in here!!!
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3220. Patrap
Dont know what a er, "AGW crowd" is, as I favor this statement whenever that Label is tozzed at folks feet.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”

― Neil deGrasse Tyson

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3219. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And by 18z the next day the GFS dropped it completely.


Yes but not before the EURO
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*le wild naked swirl appears!

Suddenly, convection!
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WOW, we are in the thick of it. 48 hours and 3,000 posts!
And I thought Climate issues got this blog hopping...
Excellent!

Cities in the drought areas should pay Jim C. to visit!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due west from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.


Don't you mean 'due east from Mx to Fl'?
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3214. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pt2















The issue with all of these tracks is that they all started at different points (some of which would not be reachable by 94L), and they occurred at different times of year, with different conditions. I also see landfall on every one of these tracks. None are "fish storms". Might as well pick 14 random tracks.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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