94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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1513. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looking a lot like 12z, but stronger.

A little bit slower which is interesting. Perhaps it is seeing slower trade winds?
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1511. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keep, thanks for fixing that clock. Blog loads much better now. :)
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1510. Patrap
Also, according to Mayan Prophecy, when you see this in the Geo Field.

They coming Back.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast
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1508. Levi32
Quoting spathy:


So does everything you are seeing down the road concur with the forecast East movement of the deep-layer ridge? Or is there a strong possibility of it not/or quickly rebuilding?


Well what really sticks out to me is the enormous amount of blocking over Canada in the pattern during the next 10 days. That's kind of like a west-based negative NAO, and suggests that there should be relatively lower heights to the south of that blocking, keeping the sub-tropical ridge rather soft between 90W and 60W during the time when 94L should be within those longitudes.

ECMWF ensemble mean 6-10 day 500mb height anomaly:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting stormpetrol:
You know all this talk about the stronger a system the more North or Poleward movement it would take is generally true , but not necessarily the rule, Take Dean, Felix 2007 or even Ivan 2004 as examples!



yes stormpetrol you are right sometimes it's not necessarily the rule if the  bermuda high pressure area to the north is super stromg to keep the storms moving west shielding the United States from some strikes like it was in  2007.
this year the bermuda high pressure area is not that strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


Check out the nice spiraling in the last few frames...

One good DMAX away from a new TD or TS IMO

See that little 'angry eye' she showed in the last frame? Girl means business and she has it all: tight (and I would say closed) circulation, pretty presentation and a new Nward intention.

I don't care what they say about you, 95, you'll always be Helene to me...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3189
1504. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1503. Patrap
NOAA: Space Weather Prediction Center

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1502. Dakster
Quoting StormJunkie:


Awesome Pictures! So what impacts will it have on earth and what regions? Also how strong is it relative to previous solar flairs? Like the ones that took out the power grid in Quebec?


If I read the graphic correctly the burst (Solar Flare) is going away from Earth.

They are rated, I believe C, M, and X class. X being the strongest.

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Looking a lot like 12z, but stronger.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
1500. sar2401
Quoting gustavcane:
Hello everyone I have been reading the post here about the models and would like to say what I think about the models IMO. What we are seeing in the models for 94L & 95L is where these storms will go if they stay weak, because weak storms tend to not feel the northward pull from the upper Atmosphere because of low cloud tops. strong Tropical Storms or Hurricanes have high cloud tops feel and get caught up in the Ridge in the upper Atmosphere and are pulled northward. So long story short, these models are way off right now if 94L gets to Hurricane force before reaching the Antilles islands IMO. what do you guys think, Am I right or wrong about this.



I'm not quite sure I understand your question. As an analogy, tropical storms want to live, so they are attracted to weakness in ridges, like the cold font currently moving south toward the front. They avoid high pressure because they sense that higher pressures will kill them. Really strong hurricanes can create their own atmosphere and are less affected by any outside influence, like ridges or dry air. Weaker storms are pushed and pulled a lot more than stronger ones. I hope I got that right.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L looks to be near 14.4N 39.5W


The more south it is the happier you are lol
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1498. Patrap
Quoting StormJunkie:


Awesome Pictures! So what impacts will it have on earth and what regions? Also how strong is it relative to previous solar flairs? Like the ones that took out the power grid in Quebec?



That's a tad out me area of knowledge SJ.

But on the Bottom of the Page in the Updates from the Wizards, is like

if the PCAF is Green is..GOOD

If its Yellow, Problems are Possible

If its Red, ...well, dont be on Orbit.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Aug 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1548 (N19E86) produced
an M5/Sf flare at 18/0102Z, accompanied by a Tenflare (150 pfu). An
M1/Sn flare from the same region followed at 18/0323Z, also
accompanied by a Tenflare (120 pfu). Finally, an M2/1N occurred at
18/1607Z. Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
the past 24 hours, none appear to have a geoeffective component.
SDO 304 imagery showed a filament eruption in the vicinity of Region
1543 (N23W74) around 17/16Z. A CME was subsequently observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 17/1836Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
17/1918Z. A second filament eruption and CME was observed near
Region 1543 between 17/22Z and 18/0034Z. It was visible in STEREO-B
COR2 imagery at 18/0110Z and in LASCO C3 imagery at 18/0454Z. This
CME was directed well north of the ecliptic.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with moderate activity likely for the next three days (19-21
August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft ranged between about 350-420 km/s during the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
-8 and +12 nT. Solar wind density at ACE increased sharply after
18/19Z. The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the last
period (18-21Z) coincident with a change to the positive sector and
the arrival of the corotating active region.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (19-21
August) as a corotating interaction region and coronal hole high
speed stream become geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Aug 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1548 (N19E86) produced
an M5/Sf flare at 18/0102Z, accompanied by a Tenflare (150 pfu). An
M1/Sn flare from the same region followed at 18/0323Z, also
accompanied by a Tenflare (120 pfu). Finally, an M2/1N occurred at
18/1607Z. Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
the past 24 hours, none appear to have a geoeffective component.
SDO 304 imagery showed a filament eruption in the vicinity of Region
1543 (N23W74) around 17/16Z. A CME was subsequently observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 17/1836Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
17/1918Z. A second filament eruption and CME was observed near
Region 1543 between 17/22Z and 18/0034Z. It was visible in STEREO-B
COR2 imagery at 18/0110Z and in LASCO C3 imagery at 18/0454Z. This
CME was directed well north of the ecliptic.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with moderate activity likely for the next three days (19-21
August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft ranged between about 350-420 km/s during the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
-8 and +12 nT. Solar wind density at ACE increased sharply after
18/19Z. The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the last
period (18-21Z) coincident with a change to the positive sector and
the arrival of the corotating active region.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (19-21
August) as a corotating interaction region and coronal hole high
speed stream become geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Aug 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1548 (N19E86) produced
an M5/Sf flare at 18/0102Z, accompanied by a Tenflare (150 pfu). An
M1/Sn flare from the same region followed at 18/0323Z, also
accompanied by a Tenflare (120 pfu). Finally, an M2/1N occurred at
18/1607Z. Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
the past 24 hours, none appear to have a geoeffective component.
SDO 304 imagery showed a filament eruption in the vicinity of Region
1543 (N23W74) around 17/16Z. A CME was subsequently observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 17/1836Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
17/1918Z. A second filament eruption and CME was observed near
Region 1543 between 17/22Z and 18/0034Z. It was visible in STEREO-B
COR2 imagery at 18/0110Z and in LASCO C3 imagery at 18/0454Z. This
CME was directed well north of the ecliptic.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with moderate activity likely for the next three days (19-21
August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft ranged between about 350-420 km/s during the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
-8 and +12 nT. Solar wind density at ACE increased sharply after
18/19Z. The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the last
period (18-21Z) coincident with a change to the positive sector and
the arrival of the corotating active region.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (19-21
August) as a corotating interaction region and coronal hole high
speed stream become geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1496. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1494. GetReal
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1493. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This could be interesting...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
1491. Dakster
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Mountain Time is 2 hours back from Eastern Time.

However, in it's infinite wisdom does not have dalyight Savings Time, so half of the year it pretends it's in a different Time Zone.


Much trickier than that, some states in Mountain time do follow daylight savings time and so do not... I wish we would just get rid of it altogether instead of winding the Earth back or forward and hour twice a year.
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1490. LargoFl
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Gordon trending towards extratropical now..interacting with the system to its NE but still a powerful hurricane on the verge of the eastern Azores.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
I live in Tampa right next to the RNC. These clowns will totally disrupt my life for a week any chance it gets to this area before the 30th?
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Quoting Levi32:
I'm still having a hard time believing that 94L would continue nearly due west right into the heart of the Caribbean, unless it never becomes a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles (using ECMWF here for example) show the deep-layer subtropical ridge centered directly north of the storm along 55W in 2 days, which would support westerly movement, but by Day 5 the deep-layer ridge has shifted quite far to the east along 30-40W, and the ridging between 80W and 60W is much softer, which would suggest that any kind of a strengthening tropical cyclone near the Antilles would start to gain some significant latitude.

ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 48 hours:



ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 120 hours:



ECMWF has indicated the weakest storm of the global models, despite the higher resolution.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10922
Quoting ILikeIke:

So does it need more thunderstorm activity to be declared a TD, or what?

something like that it should be TD9 by 11pm tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
1485. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1484. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L looks to be near 14.4N 39.5W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
Quoting LargoFl:
how far back is mountain time?


Mountain Time is 2 hours back from Eastern Time.

However, in it's infinite wisdom Arizona does not have dalyight Savings Time, so half of the year it pretends it's in a different Time Zone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1479. GetReal


Check out the nice spiraling in the last few frames...

One good DMAX away from a new TD or TS IMO
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1478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
how far back is mountain time?

Me tink's Grothar may have to answer dat un Largo
2 hours earlier than eastern time
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1476. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Gordon is no Longer a threat to the CONUS, would be my guess.



like.
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1474. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
You know all this talk about the stronger a system the more North or Poleward movement it would take is generally true , but not necessarily the rule, Take Dean, Felix 2007 or even Ivan 2004 as examples!

very very very true
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
Don't forget Wilma!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I'm still having a hard time believing that 94L would continue nearly due west right into the heart of the Caribbean, unless it never becomes a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles (using ECMWF here for example) show the deep-layer subtropical ridge centered directly north of the storm along 55W in 2 days, which would support westerly movement, but by Day 5 the deep-layer ridge has shifted quite far to the east along 30-40W, and the ridging between 80W and 60W is much softer, which would suggest that any kind of a strengthening tropical cyclone near the Antilles would start to gain some significant latitude.

ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 48 hours:



ECMWF Ensemble mean 500mb Height and MSLP 120 hours:



Did you see my post on page 26? Basically said the same thing. Lol.
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1470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually it doesn't, climatology is depicted by the clp5 model; which as of 18Z, moves it NNE into Texas



Yes the first part is indicative of what happens when strong fronts come down at this time of the year, but this one is expected to sweep SE-ward after 2-3 days and probably only allow a drifiting N-ward motion by any low level system. Even at the present time with a strong front and a deep trough on the east coast, there is not alot of pull N or NNE as depicted in CIMSS low level steering because it is stuck right between systems to its E and NW. Once the front advances eastward ridging will start building back in enough to take it back into Mexico somewhere, could be close to the Texas border or much further south but very difficult to tell. But if it develops fast as some storms in this synoptic pattern do in the Gulf then we have many other possibilities to consider.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1468. Thrawst
Quoting Patrap:
Gordon is no Longer a threat to the CONUS, would be my guess.


LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
www.solarham.net

Added 8/19/2012 @ 21:15 UTC

Farsided Solar Flare and CME

A moderate to strong solar flare took place earlier this afternoon off the farside of the Sun. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now visible in STEREO Ahead COR2 images. The source appears to be old Sunspot 1538. The flare itself was captured by STEREO Behind in the image below.



Awesome Pictures! So what impacts will it have on earth and what regions? Also how strong is it relative to previous solar flairs? Like the ones that took out the power grid in Quebec?
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1466. Patrap
how far back is mountain time?

Me tink's Grothar may have to answer dat un Largo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting stormpetrol:


Personally 94L IMO isn't going 20-25mph today , 94L has slowed quite a bit today IMO.

Agreed
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
You know all this talk about the stronger a system the more North or Poleward movement it would take is generally true , but not necessarily the rule, Take Dean, Felix 2007 or even Ivan 2004 as examples!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. LargoFl
how far back is mountain time? ... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 324 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAUGHN...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. GO TO A SAFE PLACE NOW.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.