94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
3 circles now in the Atlantic basin


Umm? I thought, actually I am sure one is in the Gulf to be specific!
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It actually moved a tad bit north of west from the last fix.

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
The storms are lining up off Africa like Rockettes LOL
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Quoting weatherh98:


*facepalm*


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The season is really starting to heat up.
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Operational GFS centered better with the ensembles from the latest cycle, 18Z



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1857. ncstorm
18z GFS Ensemble 150 hours..a lot more ensembles heading northwest than heading south or even west..

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1856. Grothar
Vary large system. Not too strong yet, but large.




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There is a lot of really warm water out there.

Link

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm on my phone right now.Dang..

Really? Me too! Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
94L at 80% yeah I think we'll have TD 9 by 11pm

and do I see a 96L coming soon

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
Quoting luvtogolf:
80% and moving WESTWARD..... I have to go with the PHD's on this one.


west ward could mean westerly direction north or south of it
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting Grothar:
the FIM7, the most unreliable model looks like it has the system over the Cayman Islands in a few days.



While the more reliable FIM8 moves it off the coast.



That's almost as bad as the CMC model :)
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NHC broke out another crayon off Africa.. 10%..
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I'm on my phone right now.Dang..
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm convection is increasing on 94L in the form of two blobs on the W and NW side located near 16N 42W and 14.5N 40.7W watch it if convection continues and is able to cover the system we could see TD9 declared at 11pm tonight


Wont Happen!
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1846. Grothar
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80% and moving WESTWARD..... I have to go with the PHD's on this one.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 934
Quoting washingtonian115:
80 percent it is then...




and the wave be hid 94L got 10%
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
95 seems to have a little spin to it ...

Link


Its too close to the coast to really do anything, plus the convection is really died down.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




looks like will have 96L soon
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floodjam.n.fl.was.alot.of.fun...raised.over.50.gran d
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80 percent it is then...
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1839. ncstorm
132 hours..more ensembles north of the island

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Gordon is sure to pass Ernie in ACE now. Still a cane.
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1837. Patrap
Africa spittin' them out like a Beagle Whelping in August...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
3 circles now in the Atlantic basin
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Dry air until the Antilles....

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Can we please ease off the" it looks like" a Andrew, Irene, David track. We haven't even gotten a definite COC fix yet, or a depression or storm yet . Models are still all over at the end of the runs. Let's all rela. Here is what we know for sure it's going range anywhere from a tropical wave to a cat 5. It's going west'ish it will most likely end up going anywhere from the Yucatan all the way around the gulf up the east coast to at least Novia Scotia oh and Bermuda. Let's just go easy. It's way out still. I'm am not directing this to the regular people that are on here forecasting. You know who you are thanks for what u do. I am talking to the ones that are at DEFCON 1 already. I'm not trying too offend anyone. Bring it down a few knotches. Thanks....... Walking off my soap box now
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
95 seems to have a little spin to it ...

Link


*facepalm*
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't we have some Col thing while Debby was around?


It's been on again off again most of the summer. Worthy of note too. May have to hoist the shields in a week or so.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
94L with the well defined circulation...I just wish we could have a decent scatterometer pass.

Now we just sit back and wait for the diurnal cycle to give us a convective boost.

8:00 should bring and orange circle (30%) to 95L and 90% to 94L, along with the stipulation that if the current organization trend continues and when convection is steadier, advisories will be initiated.

Edit: ugh, I posted this before I knew the TWO was out. Off by 10% on the upper side on both, but I'm certainly more liberal than the NHC on assigning percentages.
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95 seems to have a little spin to it ...

Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Thank you. BTW you and I are not the only ones who say it.


The TWO comes out shortly. If the NHC says "as it continues to move WSW", then you are right.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 934
1827. Patrap
Quoting redwagon:

Where do you think I'm posting from? Mars?





(btw, don't answer that :))


I'm gonna send those pics to the RNC as well.

For the,er....AGW Plank maybe.

; )

I sent um dis un within the last hour as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Hmm convection is increasing on 94L in the form of two blobs on the W and NW side located near 16N 42W and 14.5N 40.7W watch it if convection continues and is able to cover the system we could see TD9 declared at 11pm tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
1823. Grothar
the FIM7, the most unreliable model looks like it has the system over the Cayman Islands in a few days.



While the more reliable FIM8 moves it off the coast.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Thank you. BTW you and I are not the only ones who say it.


Here we go again, anything we can find that would trend towards a "Cayman" Island strike!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was it kmanislander yesterday saying some thing about a SW movement in the midATL due to the shape of the high?


him or RTS i think it was both. But yes its movin wsw
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Quoting VR46L:


Looks a mess to me



That's why I'm not thinking a TD until Tuesday at the earliest. Have patience and you'll have results (to the blog)
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Quoting Patrap:


We shall see.. Hopefully it will Miss and slide into the Rio Grande or someplace that could use it.

Where do you think I'm posting from? Mars?





(btw, don't answer that :))
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In case you'd forgotten there's still a hurricane out there.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON NEARING THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 26.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Looks like Gordon will visit N. Spain


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1814. ncstorm
18z ensembles spread is running..hour 114..right now you have north of the islands and south of the islands..north of the islands..slower..south..faster

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not enough persistent convection


Tell that to Helene
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.