94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yup you just compared the 8am fix with the 2pm fix, your eyes are good but apparently you dont pay attention since wunderkidcayman said it was moving south of west the last FEW hours


ok but I also said that the ATCF coordinates are almost all the time off sometimes off by 2 degrees
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting redwagon:

Ignore these ijits. They buy-in that 95 just popped up out of a calm, serene, sunny, breezy coastline cabana inlet butterfly swirl and then have the crusty-brown decayed 'grey' matter to predict her future.

We'll watch her develop or not.


pardon, but I did not know that posting info and maps made one, an ijit. I found the map and thought it may be of interest to someone.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not updated yet
I know I am just saying.
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8:00 PM Advisory
(click to enlarge)
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Interesting that 95L showing more signs of circulation but less convection...
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Bust season:

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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
I am waiting.



not updated yet
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Quoting Tazmanian:



the new updates on 94L 95L and soon may be 96L
I am waiting.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes i´m thinking the same but not so much interact with hispanola, european is little south but i think is because is predicting a weaker system.. again we need a TD or TS for a best forecast track and everything is pointing the system will strengthens in the next 24-48 hours so lets see what happens
I agree 100%
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Quoting Relix:


Huh? So you are saying the system moved east? Re-check :P. 18GMT is 6PM, and as far as I know that was only 2 hours ago. NHC is also stating its moving Westward.


its 2pm not 6pm

you again compared the 8am fix to the 2pm fix
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Quoting Grothar:
the FIM7, the most unreliable model looks like it has the system over the Cayman Islands in a few days.



While the more reliable FIM8 moves it off the coast.

Uh.... not.... really not...

That is like "eye passing over eastern New Providence" NOT....
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Quoting sunlinepr:

We had a thunder shower today that would have blown the curtain of its hooks and split the boom boxes to tatters.
Only lased 5 minutes but with hail, gales and horizontal driving rain. Took about 10 minutes to dry everything up in the 40?C heat afterwards, rising mists everywhere. Now its all humid for the first time in months.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
See a possible lull coming down the pipe. Just in time for the big dog month of Sept.


A weak MJO pulse will be present across Eaat Atlantic.

Plus, it is late August. MJO does not matter as much.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
1898. Patrap
A protractor is not a slide rule ?

No wunder my obs are off.

Go fig'ya ?

Never stop learning.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
There is a lot of really warm water out there.

Link


Ignore these ijits. They buy-in that 95 just popped up out of a calm, serene, sunny, breezy coastline cabana inlet butterfly swirl and then have the crusty-brown decayed 'grey' matter to predict her future.

We'll watch her develop or not.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3237
1896. Relix
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yup you just compared the 8am fix with the 2pm fix, you eyes are good but apparently you dont pay attention since wunderkidcayman said it was moving south of west the last FEW hours


Huh? So you are saying the system moved east? Re-check :P. 18GMT is 6PM, and as far as I know that was only 2 hours ago. NHC is also stating its moving Westward.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be close. We've had four, we should get another tomorrow or Tuesday, the wave behind it may develop, etc.
If the three current AOI were to develop that'll be 7.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Isn't it time for you to take another trip somewhere ? Maybe the moon this time. We don't need it or want it here. At least, most of us don't.

lol don't even think about my name



Quoting Relix:


Well it moved north...

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest

Guess my eyesight is good!

nope it's not read what I said just a while ago about ATCF coordinates

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
on what?



the new updates on 94L 95L and soon may be 96L
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What are the odds of a strong system affecting the Virgin Islands and PR?

Just a lurker guys so please take the question in the spirit it is asked. I am not trying to sow dissension or cause an argument...I was just wondering if I need to pack my bags for work? I always check with the blogs before I bother. You guys rock!
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1891. VR46L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's why I'm not thinking a TD until Tuesday at the earliest. Have patience and you'll have results (to the blog)


LOL ...yep its going to take time and only knows where it , is actually going
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1890. ncstorm
174 hours-18z GFS Ensembles
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See a possible lull coming down the pipe. Just in time for the big dog month of Sept.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
1888. Grothar
Quoting atmosweather:
"AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH."

One question about the movement answered...but remember that forward speed when assessing its chances of blossoming anytime soon.


Didn't Andrew form moving faster than that? I seem to remember something about that.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WAITING FOR NEW ATCF
on what?
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Quoting VR46L:


Looks a mess to me

Didn't I read closed but broad? with vigorous mid-level? I guess 94L will give it another try tonight...
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 17:54:30 N Lon : 124:41:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 970.5mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.1 5.7

JTWC has it as a 55kt TS. That deserves some facepalming.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting atmosweather:
"AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH."

One question about the movement answered...but remember that forward speed when assessing its chances of blossoming anytime soon.




but Gordon moveing E at 21 mph and it be came a hurricane so if Gordon can be come a hurricane at that speed i sure 94L can be come a TD and then a TS at the speed at well
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
94L is honestly a very organized low pressure system, however it has no convection. 95L is definitely one to watch, as it seems to have a surface low trying to develop.
y didnt they put 95L a orange cirle did they ot see spin? It is trying to form a Surface Low.
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Quoting atmosweather:
"AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH."

One question about the movement answered...but remember that forward speed when assessing its chances of blossoming anytime soon.


if the forward speed was that big of an issue, the NHC would never have gone up to 80% IMO
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WAITING FOR NEW ATCF
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone think we'll tie the record with 2004 with 8 named storms in August?.

It'll be close. We've had four, we should get another tomorrow or Tuesday, the wave behind it may develop, etc.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
1879. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:


west ward could mean westerly direction north or south of it


Don't confuse us now.
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Quoting Relix:


Well it moved north...

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest

Guess my eyesight is good!


yup you just compared the 8am fix with the 2pm fix, your eyes are good but apparently you dont pay attention since wunderkidcayman said it was moving south of west the last FEW hours
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"AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH."

One question about the movement answered...but remember that forward speed when assessing its chances of blossoming anytime soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:


Well it moved north...

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest
it should head due west for quite some time now
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It actually moved a tad bit north of west from the last fix.

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest


the thing about using ATCF people need to know those coordinates are almost never correct sometime being a whole 2 degrees off so Sattelite and HH recons are almost the best to use and in this case it the sattelite
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nah, a hurricane, a red circle, and two yellow circles? Bust season.

Its obviously a bust season, jk. More to come with the wave train in motion and it only being August 19th.
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Anyone think we'll tie the record with 2004 with 8 named storms in August?.
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Quoting NJ2S:


Lol good point! Anywhere from greenland to Tierra del Fuego should keep a close watch lol
I think maybe south of Guyana and Surinam might catch a break this time... lol

Quoting VR46L:
So now over the last 3 days the almighty GFS has doomed , practically everyone or made it a fish and at one stage the storm was doom in the hurricane graveyard .guess one of the runs will be right but which one?
The GFS is punting with those wx forecast bookies in Ireland or somewhere... put out runs that show every possibility, then when the actual storm happens, the GFS can be touted as the one that "got it right"... meanwhile the other runs would quietly evaporate into the ether... lol

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1871. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep even if it is N of WSW still considered W


Well it moved north...

12 GMT 08/19/12 14.4N 36.4W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/19/12 14.6N 38.4W 25 1010 Invest

Guess my eyesight is good!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is honestly a very organized low pressure system, however it has no convection. 95L is definitely one to watch, as it seems to have a surface low trying to develop.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
The season is really starting to heat up.

Nah, a hurricane, a red circle, and two yellow circles? Bust season.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting Grothar:
the FIM7, the most unreliable model looks like it has the system over the Cayman Islands in a few days.



While the more reliable FIM8 moves it off the coast.

Isn't it time for you to take another trip somewhere ? Maybe the moon this time. We don't need it or want it here. At least, most of us don't.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? Me too! Lol.
Yep :).This technology is really something and this old hag is going to take advantage of it.
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Quoting weatherh98:


west ward could mean westerly direction north or south of it

yep even if it is N of WSW still considered W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting weatherh98:


west ward could mean westerly direction north or south of it


Agree, in a slight deviation. But if it was moving truly WSW or WNW they would indicate so.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
3 circles now in the Atlantic basin


Umm? I thought, actually I am sure one is in the Gulf to be specific!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.