94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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1963. SLU
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5036
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

which make it even more odd



yes I do compair almost every storm in the ATCF database to the NHC advisory database and compair the Lat and Longs that give you you answer

this shows up more on the begining of the storms (TD/TS stages of the storm)yes you are correct hurricane specialists are better so what does computer Sat estimates be the driving factor


The NHC advisory database IS the ATCF.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11027
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why would it be taboo? why the attack?

There was not so much as even a wake from a Beechcraft in the timeframe that Helene split into. No entities whatsoever. For anyone to posit no coincidence between Helen's inland llc dissipating and 95L suddenly forming from her new new llc is disengenuous.
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1960. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1959. SLU
WUNDERKIDCAYMAN is right in saying 94L is moving south of due west. The center seems to be more like 14.2 and not 14.6 for sure.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5036
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.
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1957. Patrap
95L ShortWave IR Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1956. barbamz
Quoting PlazaRed:

They might be dropping for you Barb but we have 42/C forecast for tomorrow and not dropping much this week.
We had a thunder Shower today, I cant ever remember having seen one of them in August before in over 20 years. All the other months but never August,it was 40/c (102/F) at the time 6 pm.


I know Plaza. I've got friends in Madrid. One of them visiting me these days. He says in comparision to Spain it's still nice in Germany with temperatures. But tonight it's really evil. Tropical night. No wind. I could use a little bit of Gordon right now ... ;-)

Edit: Remember in the US, we usually don't have air cons in Germany.
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
every new run looks like florida is off the hook


6 days out!....I don't think anyone is off the hook yet.
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Quoting Levi32:


ATCF is always based off of satellite unless a recon plane is in there at the time of the ATCF fix.

which make it even more odd

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You have any data to back that up? Hurricane specialists at NHC are pretty good at satellite analysis, so I would be interested in seeing your data.


yes I do. compair almost every storm in the ATCF database to the NHC advisory database and compair the Lat and Longs that give you you answer.

this shows up more on the begining of the storms. (TD/TS stages of the storm)

yes you are correct hurricane specialists are better so what does computer Sat estimates be the driving factor for.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11661
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
every new run looks like florida is off the hook


Nobodys "off the hook" yet... everyones in play I think..
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
yes lots of circles but everything is either going out to sea or fizlling out non affecting the conus
You do realize that there are people living in between where 94L is and the CONUS, right ? Just because a storm does not hit the US does not mean others are not endangered.
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Quoting redwagon:

I guess that depends on whether you think systems can develop new centers of circulation. Might be a taboo subject for you, I realize.


Also it depends on whether the energy and the circulation stay intact and co-located with each other

with Helene that obviously didn't happen, that's why this is a new entity.
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As 94L dodges ASCAT, again.....



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11027
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
every new run looks like florida is off the hook




FL is not off the hook
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mmmmm? GFS makes a hard right turn over Cuba! Interesting!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Can you post a link to theses ensembles.



Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11027
Quoting RTSplayer:


Japan uses 10 minute sustained winds.

U.S. uses maximum 1 minute sustained winds.


So the numbers Japan issues in their updates will be far lower than what the U.S. would issue.

JTWC uses 1 minute winds.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
Quoting barbamz:


Yeah, that's us in Europe. Around 100°F at my place today, btw, with some SAL in the air, thanks to Spain. But temperatures are going to drop the next days "sigh of relief*. Have a good time over the pond. I'm closely following your fate with 94 ... As always. Barb (and good night).

They might be dropping for you Barb but we have 42/C forecast for tomorrow and not dropping much this week.
We had a thunder Shower today, I cant ever remember having seen one of them in August before in over 20 years. All the other months but never August,it was 40/c (102/F) at the time 6 pm.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol don't even think about my name




nope it's not read what I said just a while ago about ATCF coordinates

LOL. I didn't say a word.
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21 years ago:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
Quoting ABH4Life:


Umm? I thought, actually I am sure one is in the Gulf to be specific!
Uh... the GoM is in the Atlantic basin.
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According to the NHC.Advisory's 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 19 [20August12amGMT]
Location: 36.4*N 26.5*W, HurricaneGordon is poised to make landfall on SantaMaria in ~4hours

Taking into account today's rate of curvature, H.Gordon might edge north of SantaMaria itself to make landfall on the eastern end of SaoMiguel(PDL) instead.

We'll see if&when the NHC makes the position official on the ATCF.
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1938. JLPR2
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
yes lots of circles but everything is either going out to sea or fizlling out non affecting the conus


I live in Puerto Rico so...

yeah...

...
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1937. ncstorm
204 hours..
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1936. Patrap
ATCF has cleared the 18Z runs and should load the 00Z ones shortly, here..

or not.

They funny today as itsa weekend and they understaffed surely and wearing out text's with the Honcho's.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting redwagon:

I guess that depends on whether you think systems can develop new centers of circulation. Might be a taboo subject for you, I realize.


why would it be taboo? why the attack?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Operational GFS centered better with the ensembles from the latest cycle, 18Z





Can you post a link to theses ensembles.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
anyone have a link to the atcf?

Link
Here you go
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's been on again off again most of the summer. Worthy of note too. May have to hoist the shields in a week or so.
[cough] I [ahem] noticed....

Quoting Grothar:
Vary large system. Not too strong yet, but large.




Still a lot of open water before any interruptions...

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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't Andrew form moving faster than that? I seem to remember something about that.


Between 15 and 20 mph after restrengthening and becoming a powerful hurricane, and Andrew had an an extrenely strong mid level circulation even while a weak tropical storm, then encountered a very favorable outflow and shear environment. 94L is a vigorous and well defined low pressure area but still not quite a tropical depression yet and such a fast forward motion with a bit of dry air around is not going to help much for the time being.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L came out of the leftover energy from Helene, but since Helenes' circulation no longer became discernible, it is considered a different system

This has been said many times by the "ijits" on this blog

I guess that depends on whether you think systems can develop new centers of circulation. Might be a taboo subject for you, I realize.
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anyone have a link to the atcf?
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94 L is some miles away of 28 degree celcius SST ,so even though the dry air is expect more convection soon
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1926. VR46L
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think maybe south of Guyana and Surinam might catch a break this time... lol

The GFS is punting with those wx forecast bookies in Ireland or somewhere... put out runs that show every possibility, then when the actual storm happens, the GFS can be touted as the one that "got it right"... meanwhile the other runs would quietly evaporate into the ether... lol



Trust me when they sent it to sea as a mega fish of North atlantic doom I was freaking a little too.. I think 94L has only, not doomed the Southern Hemisphere bloggers on here but there is always tonight or tomorrow for that lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A weak MJO pulse will be present across Eaat Atlantic.

Plus, it is late August. MJO does not matter as much.



Yes, same as in my image. I was referring to September as the very next image beyond what you posted shows the mjo gone. Pretty strong subsidence forecast for the month of September.

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1924. Patrap
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok but I also said that the ATCF coordinates are almost all the time off sometimes off by 2 degrees


Fudge factor.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok but I also said that the ATCF coordinates are almost all the time off sometimes off by 2 degrees


You have any data to back that up? Hurricane specialists at NHC are pretty good at satellite analysis, so I would be interested in seeing your data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11027
1922. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bust season:



Circles...

Circles everywhere.


XD
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1921. barbamz
Quoting sunlinepr:


Yeah, that's us in Europe. Around 100F at my place today (Germany), btw, with some SAL in the air, thanks to Spain. But temperatures are going to drop the next days "sigh of relief*. Have a good time over the pond. I'm closely following your fate with 94L ... As always. Barb (and good night).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1920. Levi32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


the thing about using ATCF people need to know those coordinates are almost never correct sometime being a whole 2 degrees off so Sattelite and HH recons are almost the best to use and in this case it the sattelite


ATCF is always based off of satellite unless a recon plane is in there at the time of the ATCF fix. Occaisionally a SCAT pass helps as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
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Quoting redwagon:

Ignore these ijits. They buy-in that 95 just popped up out of a calm, serene, sunny, breezy coastline cabana inlet butterfly swirl and then have the crusty-brown decayed 'grey' matter to predict her future.

We'll watch her develop or not.


95L came out of the leftover energy from Helene, but since Helenes' circulation no longer became discernible, it is considered a different system

This has been said many times by the "ijits" on this blog
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1917. ackee
THERE lot dry air ahead of 94L this might slow down intensification guess we see
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Quoting wxchaser97:

55knts doesnt make any sense, its got to be/ is way stronger. That is obviously a typhoon, triple facepalm.


Japan uses 10 minute sustained winds.

U.S. uses maximum 1 minute sustained winds.


So the numbers Japan issues in their updates will be far lower than what the U.S. would issue.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A weak MJO pulse will be present across Eaat Atlantic.

Plus, it is late August. MJO does not matter as much.


EAAT ATLANTIC
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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