94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.


95l's spin, name, origin, etc., has been discussed multiple times today...you shouldn't take anything personal on this blog...lol....it's just a blog. If you think it's bad now...wait until there's a major tracking towards Florida :) Once you get to know all the bloggers a bit better, I'm pretty sure you'll understand that no one is usually rude on purpose...(most of the time.) I'm glad you are here. It's informational, educational and fun!

EDIT: You've been here since 2007...you should already know this stuff...sorry...didn't mean to sound condescending :)
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time Tonight or tommorrow does HH going into 95L?
Not until Tuesday.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Still showing this
old run (6hrs)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Automated satellite algorithm thinks.....


AL, 94, 201208200000, 70, ANAL, P, , 1470N, 4020W


disturbing
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time Tonight or tommorrow does HH going into 95L?




plzs loook back in the commets it been said 100s of time now


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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


We here in the Houston area may get some rain afterall!!

yep!
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1422 gordydunnot: Answer me this anyone. How come the NHC post floaters of every tropical system in the world but drops Gordon when he is close to running over land.

H.Gordon's very north, and probably falling out of the equatorial satellites' orbital range. Can't take pictures over the horizon, or even usefully flat ones of a storm near the view-horizon
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In case you wondered...
Here in the islands,
if we are struck by a legitimate hurricane,
we rarely get damage...

If it's a legitimate Hurricane, we islanders has ways to try to shut that whole thing down...

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Well that is absoulutly a horrible track for ts tembin in the pacific, poor taiwan another big hit coming with rapid intensification about to commence.
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What time Tonight or tommorrow does HH going into 95L?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting Grothar:


No, you are correct. It seems no matter what someone writes there is always someone there to correct them. If they write 27.2, someone will write, "Don't you mean 27.3?"

It's nice to know everybody has all the answers.

I'm off.


LOL!! I sure wish I was so omnipotent :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2002. Patrap
I wrote a song for you,
And all the things you do,
And it was called "Yellow".
So then I took my turn,
Oh what a thing to have done,
And it was all "Yellow."
Your skin,
Oh yeah your skin and bones,
Turn into something beautiful,
You know, you know I love you so,
You know I love you so.
I swam across,
I jumped across for you,
Oh what a thing to do.
Cos you were all "Yellow",



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628


Historical marks.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Still showing this


We here in the Houston area may get some rain afterall!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1998. Grothar
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.


No, you are correct. It seems no matter what someone writes there is always someone there to correct them. If they write 27.2, someone will write, "Don't you mean 27.3?"

It's nice to know everybody has all the answers.

I'm off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Automated satellite algorithm thinks.....


AL, 94, 201208200000, 70, ANAL, P, , 1470N, 4020W
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
Quoting aspectre:
According to the NHC.Advisory's 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 19 [20August12amGMT]
Location: 36.4*N 26.5*W, HurricaneGordon is poised to make landfall on SantaMaria in ~4hours

Taking into account today's rate of curvature, H.Gordon might edge north of SantaMaria itself to make landfall on the eastern end of SaoMiguel(PDL) instead.

We'll see if&when the NHC makes the position official on the ATCF.

4 Hours from now is about 6am,
Probably about the worst time for a hit as it will be dark till about 7.30am there, so they will have all the at noise etc in the dark.
Most of the people there will have no idea what a hurricane is as they will be tourists from Northern Europe.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I mentioned the WSW movement quite awhile back, Kman also mentioned this might take place yesterday if I recall correctly!


yep you see people I'm not the only one


Quoting Hurricanes101:


um let see what the 00Z plot shows first


ok I can live with that

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592

Still showing this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1993. Patrap
A Large Slowly organizing CV Classic August "Threater", I believe someone would say fer sho'


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting Patrap:
Hey, don't write yourself off yet
It's only in your head you feel left out or looked down on.
Just try your best, try everything you can.
And don't you worry what they tell themselves when you're away.

It just takes some time, little girl you're in the middle of the ride.
Everything (everything) will be just fine, everything (everything) will be alright (alright).





Jimmy Eat World
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
Quoting washingtonian115:
The last time I saw a front go down that far south in August was 2009.


I think you're right.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


there was no new llc from Helene, that is where you are off on this one

The LLC from Helene fell apart a full 2 degrees west of where 95L formed. The convection associated with Helene also completely died off before new convection formed off of the surface trof.

I guess it is a nip and tuck deal, but I believe the NHC made the right call on this and deemed it a different entity

There was a new llc from Helene, and - surprise! - it's exactly where they announced 95. Unless you can point to another entity that caused a swirl up out of nothing (positing Helene's complete death), 95 is a remnant of Helene.

Semantics, I understand. It can clog up post-season when you have to reference ex-this and ex-that when discussing a persistent cyclone, which x-7/x-Helene/95 is. But the reality is a cyclone split and formed two distinct entities.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
What time usually Atcf comes out?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.
A big thank you :)
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


He said it was moving WSW. Not just south if due west. That causes a big difference in track.


I did say WSW-S of due W so I did cover that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You do realize that there are people living in between where 94L is and the CONUS, right ? Just because a storm does not hit the US does not mean others are not endangered.


There is also many, many miles of vast, open water. 94L still has a chance to turn away and skip land.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


He said it was moving WSW. Not just south if due west. That causes a big difference in track.


um let see what the 00Z plot shows first, also he did say WSW or South of Due West in his original post
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting SLU:
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L


I mentioned the WSW movement quite awhile back, Kman also mentioned this might take place yesterday if I recall correctly!
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No matter how strong or if it passes N or S, this is not Ernesto... It has doubled in size.... Even as a TD it will have some impact...



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Quoting Thrawst:


B.O.B
thats for sure
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Some touchy folks here just about every day. Don't let it get to you. We are all entitled to our opinion be it right or wrong.


They don't bother me one bit.... I just think it is pretty crappy of some people to be so rude with those here just trying to learn.
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1979. Matt74
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.
There is some touchy people on here. The blog goes as the models go. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1977. trey33
Quoting Patrap:
Hey, don't write yourself off yet
It's only in your head you feel left out or looked down on.
Just try your best, try everything you can.
And don't you worry what they tell themselves when you're away.

It just takes some time, little girl you're in the middle of the ride.
Everything (everything) will be just fine, everything (everything) will be alright (alright).





Thanks Pat ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
WUNDERKIDCAYMAN is right in saying 94L is moving south of due west. The center seems to be more like 14.2 and not 14.6 for sure.

yep

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The NHC advisory database IS the ATCF.


that can not be corect cause NHC advisory will say it here and ATCF says otherwise I have seen it time and time again


Quoting SLU:
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L


hmm even this is close enough
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
Quoting ncstorm:
so basically..everyone..264 hours..good luck on cyphering those model runs from the GFS..Im just going to wait it out over here eating my popcorn..



I'm having milk duds. :)
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1974. Matt74
Quoting Patrap:
95L ShortWave IR Loop



If thats a circulation, it looks stationary to me.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
As 94L dodges ASCAT, again.....





When has it ever went where ascat went?
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me or do there seem to be some "touchy" folks here today?

you may be more knowledgeable than others on the blog and perhaps people not as knowledgeable as you are just looking to learn more.

I don't see the need to be rude.
Some touchy folks here just about every day. Don't let it get to you. We are all entitled to our opinion be it right or wrong.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Between 15 and 20 mph after restrengthening and becoming a powerful hurricane, and Andrew had an an extrenely strong mid level circulation even while a weak tropical storm, then encountered a very favorable outflow and shear environment. 94L is a vigorous and well defined low pressure area but still not quite a tropical depression yet and such a fast forward motion with a bit of dry air around is not going to help much for the time being.
IMO a slower foreward speed might have resulted in a true CV storm from 94L, with formation of a TS east of 30W...

Quoting aspectre:
According to the NHC.Advisory's 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 19 [20August12amGMT] Location: 36.4°N 26.5°W, HurricaneGordon is poised to make landfall on SantaMaria in ~3hours

Taking into account this day's rate of curvature, H.Gordon may edge north of SantaMaria itself and make landfall on the eastern end of SaoMiguel(PDL) instead.
Was looking at that earlier and noting that the higher hurricane strength, even that far north, added a northward component to the track...
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1970. Patrap
Hey, don't write yourself off yet
It's only in your head you feel left out or looked down on.
Just try your best, try everything you can.
And don't you worry what they tell themselves when you're away.

It just takes some time, little girl you're in the middle of the ride.
Everything (everything) will be just fine, everything (everything) will be alright (alright).



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting redwagon:

There was not so much as even a wake from a Beechcraft in the timeframe that Helene split into. No entities whatsoever. For anyone to posit no coincidence between Helen's inland llc dissipating and 95L suddenly forming from her new new llc is disengenuous.


there was no new llc from Helene, that is where you are off on this one

The LLC from Helene fell apart a full 2 degrees west of where 95L formed. The convection associated with Helene also completely died off before new convection formed off of the surface trof.

I guess it is a nip and tuck deal, but I believe the NHC made the right call on this and deemed it a different entity
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
right now 94L is located near 14.2N 40.1W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
1967. Patrap
Quoting SLU:
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L


Yeah, right dere in da middle.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1965. Thrawst
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
21 years ago:



B.O.B
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1964. ncstorm
so basically..everyone..264 hours..good luck on cyphering those model runs from the GFS..Im just going to wait it out over here eating my popcorn and reading the blog comments..

Good night guys..see ya tomorrow

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1963. SLU
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.