94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dakster:



You mean this one?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20we ather/hurricane%20model%20plots

Link


That be it,thanks alot!
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2362. gator23
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hurricane from FL to NY that what lol

am i the only person that seems concerned about the RNC?
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I don't think the looks will last for much longer...

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.ht ml

What is going on at 11 north and 40 west? Looks like it is taking some energy from 94L to its east.
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2359. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I got it Gro sorry...it came up easy...unlike some others.


:)
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Hurricane from FL to NY that what lol
Quoting clwstmchasr:


And???
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Am out night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting Grothar:


If you don't have anything nice to say about anybody, take a seat right next to me. (I just "shrugged") :)


And now way I am going to read Atlas Shrugged. I can barely get by two paragrahps on here.
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2353. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


To be honest, I never knew of her until Paul Ryan. Been watching Youtubes of her and Wiki. Seems like a bit of a hypocrite.


You have to watch her interviews, and read all of her books. Strange, entertaining woman.
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Quoting bappit:

Hugo managed it heading to South Carolina. The eye was stretched out it was moving so fast.


Somehow I don't think this is another Hugo...
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Quoting Patrap:
Breaking Bad is on..

Later







Grrr evere time I pass you you get right back up there with me some how we both have the same comments made
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
18Z GFS ENSEMBLE are out now
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Quoting Grothar:


If you don't have anything nice to say about anybody, take a seat right next to me. (I just "shrugged") :)


AtLast
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2348. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Did you forget your Metemucil today?




OK. OK, Here it is. :)

Link
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goodight
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Sure hope we don't lose power with this.

Can I still hope for a pass NE of PR, w/ a recurve between BDA and NC???? Oh, and one of those tracks that up extratropical near Norway or something?

Might as well dream big...
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Quoting Grothar:


If you don't have anything nice to say about anybody, take a seat right next to me. (I just "shrugged") :)


To be honest, I never knew of her until Paul Ryan. Been watching Youtubes of her and Wiki. Seems like a bit of a hypocrite.
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2344. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is there such a thing as theoretical physics?...lol


Theorectically, Yes. Similar to mental aerobics. You think about exercising, but don't really do it.
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Quoting Grothar:


No.


Did you forget your Metemucil today?
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2341. Patrap
Breaking Bad is on..

Later



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
2340. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is there such a thing as theoretical physics?...lol


Your inevitable conclusion is forgone, you can't miss it.

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Quoting weatherh98:
Link

NEW BLOG JUST FOR YOU TAZ



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
2338. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A little Ayn Rand in you tonight :)


If you don't have anything nice to say about anybody, take a seat right next to me. (I just "shrugged") :)
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UT Oh... thunder on the right...

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Quoting Levi32:
At 50W SSTs start increasing by a degree C or two along the 15N line. That's usually when these Cape Verde waves will start putting up the thunderstorms that they lacked farther east.



Better hope it does not go in the gulf,look at those colors!
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Quoting Patrap:

95L is somethiing that is going to linger here for a while...especially with the cold front t-storm band sagging southward and adding to this area of disturbed weather. I gave a forecast for 95L on my blog...which said it will be stationary for 72 hrs...then begin drifting northward toward S Texas beyond that...

I also released forecasts for 94L....Gordon...and gave a prognosis for the next tropical wave that just came off of Africa (which will probably become 96L)...
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is there such a thing as theoretical physics?...lol


YES
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Link

NEW BLOG JUST FOR YOU TAZ
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Quoting Patrap:
P.S My wife just got her full drivers licence.

Well a hardy congrats to her aussie.

Here driving is a privilege as well, Not a right.


I saw a Telephone pole get wacked walking the Dog Friday on Magazine St...., a bad impact, Gurl gets out and tells the vehicle she hit into the pole..Im sorry I dint see the road I was answering my Boss's text.

I took pics for the other driver.

: )

20y.o and 17y.o men survived this. They hit 2 power poles. They need to buy lottery lickets.



I'm out. Back later.


97W is now TD16





TS/TY Tembin


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2331. Patrap
Now maybe would be a Good Time to wave at Al and Jim over at TWC, eh?





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
2330. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Do you have the link for the ensemble tracks that use gray lines for the extended track? I have the one that has dotted lines,I much prefer the gray lines.



You mean this one?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20we ather/hurricane%20model%20plots

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


No.


LOL
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Is there such a thing as theoretical physics?...lol
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850mb vorticity six hours ago (18Z):



Current 850mb vorticity (00Z):



Notice the increase and consolidation.
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2326. Levi32
At 50W SSTs start increasing by a degree C or two along the 15N line. That's usually when these Cape Verde waves will start putting up the thunderstorms that they lacked farther east.

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2325. Dakster
RTSplayer -- yuk... I don't like that model map.

I bet that gets the blog going if it hold until tomorrow. ALTHOUGH, the morning should be better since the kiddies will all be at school...
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2324. Michfan
94L is very large at the moment so until it consolidates further we will just have to wait and see. These large storms tend to take their time wrapping up and forming as opposed to smaller ones.

Good to see you come and visit us Dr M. I agree with Levi when he says it would be nice to see you stop by more often in the comments section and provide your thoughts on the long term thoughts we tend to throw around here, whether they be right or wrong.

I don't think we will have a good handle on 94L until at least midweek where its circulation is more defined and the models can get a much easier grasp on it. Plus we have flights going up during this time frame to give us better upper air data with dropsondes that can be be inputted in.
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95L rip
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting bappit:

LOL I do like posts of the ensembles like Dr. M used in the blog because they show a spread downrange. Sorry my comment earlier offended.


Do you have the link for the ensemble tracks that use gray lines for the extended track? I have the one that has dotted lines,I much prefer the gray lines.
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Quoting Patrap:


be glad the front didnt stall 100 miles farther north
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Quoting Grothar:


No.


A little Ayn Rand in you tonight :)
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2319. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting Tazmanian:




I may want too re move that or get banned. We got storms out there and now is not the time too be posting off topic photos



All so dr m may be lurking


i was gonna let people see and delete i got this but thanks
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. I'm somewhat impressed by the NHC's liberalism/progressivism (socialism? Since we're using leftist political terms to describe forecasts) with 94L's percentages.


In 48 hours, it should be a tropical cyclone. However, it's still a broad area that needs to tighten to increase convergence and help it enhance thunderstorm development.
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Quoting weatherh98:




this guy?

I heard the state of florida is ready for the big one because of him

#hurricanepreparedness2k12




I may want too re move that or get banned. We got storms out there and now is not the time too be posting off topic photos



All so dr m may be lurking
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
I'll be back later. Enjoy your model watching and procrastinating.

Enjoy your weather. It's the only weather you have.
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2314. Patrap
P.S My wife just got her full drivers licence.

Well a hardy congrats to her aussie.

Here driving is a privilege as well, Not a right.


I saw a Telephone pole get wacked walking the Dog Friday on Magazine St...., a bad impact, Gurl gets out and tells the vehicle she hit into the pole..Im sorry I dint see the road I was answering my Boss's text.

I took pics for the other driver.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, that's Culebra!
chubacabra...?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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