94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RTSplayer:
IN response to my post 2448, I actually disagree with the logic behind that argument, because there is actually no good reason higher and higher levels of reality couldn't or wouldn't exist.

Regardless of coordinate system, you can always build a matrix with one extra dimension, and fill it with an infinite number of matrices of the known number of dimensions.

There's no logical reason for an arbitrary cut-off in a theory without actual knowledge/observation of that limit.

Further "All possibilities of all possible universes" is a no-limits fallacy.

Once you hypothesis multiple universes, or a "multi-verse," then why not multiple multi-verses?

The implication is there could be universes which are not nested within the same multi-verse matrix as our own.


Another fallacy is the assumption that laws exist at all in other universes.

Another fallacy is the assumption that all laws that exist here exist there. there may be no gravity, or no light, or no nuclear force, etc.


Another fallacy is the assumption that a "alternate possibility" is the same as a "reality" that you could actually travel to.


If I have a 6 sided die and I roll it, there are six possibilities, but once rolled, only one of them is "real". There is no good reason to believe that there is any "alternate timeline" where a different number was the result; it cannot be falsified with the knowledge or technology we have today.



Ok
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


latest

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
Thank you, sir. Where this could be found at?
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IN response to my post 2448, I actually disagree with the logic behind that argument, because there is actually no good reason higher and higher levels of reality couldn't or wouldn't exist.

Regardless of coordinate system, you can always build a matrix with one extra dimension, and fill it with an infinite number of matrices of the known number of dimensions.

So you can neither prove nor refute n 1 dimensions having knowledge of only n dimensions.

There's no logical reason for an arbitrary cut-off in a theory without actual knowledge/observation of that limit.

Further "All possibilities of all possible universes" is a no-limits fallacy.

Once you hypothesis multiple universes, or a "multi-verse," then why not multiple multi-verses?

The implication is there could be universes which are not nested within the same multi-verse matrix as our own.


Another fallacy is the assumption that laws exist at all in other universes.

Another fallacy is the assumption that all laws that exist here exist there. there may be no gravity, or no light, or no nuclear force, etc.


Another fallacy is the assumption that a "alternate possibility" is the same as a "reality" that you could actually travel to.


If I have a 6 sided die and I roll it, there are six possibilities, but once rolled, only one of them is "real". There is no good reason to believe that there is any "alternate timeline" where a different number was the result; it cannot be falsified with the knowledge or technology we have today.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Nice video about Andrew and the first forecast cone used ever...
check it out on twc...

Link


Funniest part is that Andrew would have been outside the 5 day cone they showed at the end of the video...
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Thought I would share..

94L

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Monday, August 20, 2012 0:00 Z

Location at the time:

1282 statue miles (2064 km) to the E (84°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Wind (1 min. avg.):

25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:

1010 mb (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa)

Coordinates:

15.1N 40.6W
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Can I have the updated line for 94L? Is it still at 1.5? Where is it? Thanks!


latest

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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Quoting angiest:
I haven't been able to may much attention to 94L, but from the little I've seen of GFS, I'm reminded of Irene. At 10-15 days, GFS was showing the storm that became Irene making landfall basically from Brownsville up to New England (if memory serves). The important things were the consistency in showing the storm forming and being a threat to CONUS.

Contrast this with, say, Danielle, from 2010, which GFS developed consistently, but was always showing staying well out to sea (while threatening Bermuda).

Actually, there were about 10 to 15 consecutive gfs model runs for Irene predicting a track up or near the spine of the Florida. I was a believer. Anyway, we all know how she ended up. So, anything can happen.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Theory of 10 dimensional space times



nice video...its hard to picture in the little space we live in to a huge and ginormous universe... we don't even make a dot in there altogether...
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Glad to see the Azores were able dodge the really high winds.
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Can I have the updated line for 94L? Is it still at 1.5? Where is it? Thanks!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Im not a numbers guy.There's no doubt about that

Are those the 00z models?


No those are the 18z esembles which you can view HERE
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Well, we got a heck of storm coming up this week! Don't forget that we might have a Category 4 hitting Taiwan in few days as well.
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.
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Theory of 10 dimensional space times

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2447. scott39
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
do we have any new information on 95?
still sitting there.
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Nice video about Andrew and the first forecast cone used ever...
check it out on twc...

Link
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when you got the GFS ensembles going into the eastern gulf you should worry :O
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CLEO 1964My first storm that hit the area. Just a toddler --a lot of downed cocoanut trees. Cement roof shingles flew every where.
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do we have any new information on 95?
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2442. scott39
Quoting Altestic2012:


Maria Molina from Fox News is adoreable! She actually said "Invest 94L" yesterday, a first for any news or weather station.
She is a peach.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Wow...the weather babe doing the tropical update just made a new low in ineptitude. Sad. What it used to be was so good.


What happened? I wasn't watching..
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2438. scott39
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Wow...the weather babe doing the tropical update just made a new low in ineptitude. Sad. What it used to be was so good.
Ahh...weather babes are nice...who cares if she knows anything about weather!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know canes. The more it moves west...the ensembles will move west also. But still a ways out.


And plenty of time to watch and get ready if need be.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting AegirsGal:
Uh, yeah, have you ever heard of String Theory?


Im not a numbers guy.There's no doubt about that
Quoting Drakoen:
Bulk of the ensembles now in the eastern GOM with the GEFS mean centered over Florida. Should be interesting to watch over the coming days.


Are those the 00z models?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Adios finger man, lol.
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Still gaining latitude according to ATCF.
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Wow...the weather babe doing the tropical update just made a new low in ineptitude. Sad. What it used to be was so good.
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Running the 15th parallel so it will make it rather easy to see deviations.
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Quoting caneswatch:


They just keep getting worse and worse for us Geoffrey.


I know canes. The more it moves west...the ensembles will move west also. But still a ways out.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is the operational model still outside all the ensemble members?


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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is the operational model still outside all the ensemble members?
no . down the middle
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TAIWAN GONNA GET WHIPPED HARD!!!

I'll upload soon my graphic for path of 94L... still working on it.

I'll would discuss about it as well..
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2426. scott39
Quoting taco2me61:
Hey there Scott I just saw that too and like you said it will change again and again....
Just saying :o)


Taco :o)
and again! Lol
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5-Day track people.

There's a reason NHC doesn't post beyond 5 days, because the model reliability drops off too much.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hardly no "spidey fingers" near Fla.



They just keep getting worse and worse for us Geoffrey.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2421. scott39
We have already had 8 named storms, soon to be 9 and its not even the peak yet. El-Nino is realy going to have to shut down the season in Sept, or i would look for 15 to 20 storms.
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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
OVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CLOUD MASS...BUT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL QUITE STRONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT IS
BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLOW WEAKENING RATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING. GORDON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 72
HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT...BUT IS IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THAT MODEL SHOW GORDON LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
MONDAY.

NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MORE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/17...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GORDON IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GORDON OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED
MAINLY BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE A CONSIDERABLE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT FASTER
THAN THE LATEST GFS TRACK.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
TIMELY ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 36.7N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 37.8N 23.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.8N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 39.2N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 39.3N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
2419. angiest
I haven't been able to may much attention to 94L, but from the little I've seen of GFS, I'm reminded of Irene. At 10-15 days, GFS was showing the storm that became Irene making landfall basically from Brownsville up to New England (if memory serves). The important things were the consistency in showing the storm forming and being a threat to CONUS.

Contrast this with, say, Danielle, from 2010, which GFS developed consistently, but was always showing staying well out to sea (while threatening Bermuda).
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Quoting scott39:
Now trending towards a central/N gulf coast landfall....but we all know it will change again.
Hey there Scott I just saw that too and like you said it will change again and again....
Just saying :o)


Taco :o)
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Here is one of the GFS ensemble members:

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2415. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hardly no "spidey fingers" near Fla.

Now trending towards a central/N gulf coast landfall....but we all know it will change again.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
18Z GFS ENSEMBLE are out now


Is the operational model still outside all the ensemble members?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Hardly no "spidey fingers" near Fla.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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