94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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3363. gugi182
I beginning to think 94L won't even develops into that monster hurricane we where all expecting and it will be just a tropical wave in the Caribbean at least a Tropical Depression. It's just moving to fast it like in a hurry to get somewhere. We should put speed bumps in the ocean to slow theses storms down!!!
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Quoting 954Soxfan:
As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.
What annoys me the most about this is that it almost NEVER works for the Bahamas... if we're in the 7-day cone, it's like DOOM one way or the other... my fave example is Jeanne... came off Hispaniola, went due north as a MLC... big sigh of relief... only to find that we STILL got wiped...

Just can't win for losing.... lol

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm not sure about that long a track. But I was surprised to learn that only one storm that has crossed Florida actually made landfall in TX.
I think a look at MSLP patterns might provide some interesting answers to this. I don't think we see a bridging high that lasts long enough to cover the "gap" over the eastern half of the CONUS... Storms coming out of the Caribbean that also hit TX tend to already be far enough West to begin with, IIRC...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

Speed shear again???

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when is the high supposed to weaken?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

quite a turn for the east coast


Again, I would be interested to know why the operational forecast of the GFS disagrees so heavily with all of it's members.

It's like, "Ah screw it, I'm going to Grand Cayman anyway..."
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yep. I am interested to see where the coc forms with this storm and the interaction with the High and trough
Quoting GTcooliebai:
True we'll see them fluctuate back n forth, but as we get closer in time the path becomes narrowed down.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
Usually slows down when it changes direction of movement. Also, as we get later in the season they tend to slow down, unless picked up by a trough.
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Becoming less well defined and convection is weakening... Probably going to refire soon though.
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Quoting SLU:
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.
So what is the underlying difference with these two models? What is the main factor that makes it into a wave? SAL? shear?
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Quoting 954Soxfan:


Either way South Florida dodges another bullet. I was thinking Gulf Coast but it may go east. Atleast we can rest easy now here in Fort Lauderdale!!!! :)
For now, but the models can converge there again.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting txwcc:


Correct. You can view the results on all the posts. Xyrus2000 is another poster who does not use the + or - button.

How do I view how many people have + or - a post??
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?


It looks like it will continue cruising quickly around 25kts, until it gets further in to the Caribbean. IMO

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PlazaRed,
The rain for Spain... coming from a hurricane... (Think you'll get it?)
The rain in Spain (that) falls mainly on the plain... (Think he'll get it?)

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStoryGordon for 20August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 984millibars to 990millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 65knots(75mph)120km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 67.1*ENEast@18.9mph(27.1km/h)^ to 60.3*ENEast@16.8mph(30.4km/h)

PDL-SaoMiguel :: SMA-SantaMaria :: SCQ-Santiago de Compostela

The westernmost dot is Gordon's final position as a Hurricane
The westernmost dot on the longest line is where H.Gordon became a TropicalStorm, and its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to a coastline
20Aug.~5:20amGMT: H.Gordon made passage ~1.4miles(2.25kilometres)NorthNorthWest of SantaMaria at its closest approach^
20Aug.6amGMT: H.Gordon had been headed for passage over OnsIsland,Spain^ (coastline dot beneath the straightline projection)
20Aug.6amGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage over the southern tip of Muros in ~1day17hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste pdl, sma, 42.368n8.946w, scq, 37.1n25.0w-37.9n23.2w, 37.1n25.0w-42.738n9.087w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information

^ For 2 appropriately scaled maps and other relevant information, see the previous mapping
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quite a turn for the east coast
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Either way South Florida dodges another bullet. I was thinking Gulf Coast but it may go east. Atleast we can rest easy now here in Fort Lauderdale!!!! :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
Disorganized now usually means organized later!
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Quoting Thing342:
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.


The XTRP is the Leeroy Jenkins of computer models. It just plows the storm straight ahead, regardless of what is in the storms path, or the steering currents. The storm just runs in, no thinking or preparation. The storm just yells its famous war cry and goes in.
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN
ACROSS OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLZ039-042-043-048-212000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0006.120820T1400Z-120822T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
A weaker Ridge would do the trick.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
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3343. Grothar
Quoting johnbluedog69:
Good morning grothar as well:)


Morning back to you bluedog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting kshipre1:
maybe right now but of course these tracks could go back and forth.
True we'll see them fluctuate back n forth, but as we get closer in time the path becomes narrowed down.
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3341. Patrap
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Kinda blusterous in Grand Cayman right now.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Yep and they will move again I imagine.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
someone please give me their thoughts on the storm being pulled back into the gulf off the mexico coast....will the front pull it up?
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Quoting SSideBrac:


To be followed by TS BOLAVEN - Taiwan and parts of China are going to take a hit and amounts of rainfall that have the potential for tragic results



Yeah, let's say the GFS is right...

30 to 36 hours of 1.5 inches per hour of rain would be 45 to 54 inches of rain.

And that's not even a stretch for the W. Pacific.

Some of these typhoons have broken 80 or 90 inches of rain when they stall out over an island.


Guy saying "they can handle it" isn't thinking about that.

Sure it's Taiwan, they're advanced and all, but a stall or a slow hook like that would be a nightmare on any island...
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Winds are out of the SW at buoy 41041 at about 10 knots:

Current Weather/Wave Observations
Air Temperature: 76° F
Humidity: 100
Wind direction (W Dir): SW (215 - 224 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 9.7 kts (11.2 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 11.7 kts (13.4 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 8 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 5.58 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 5.6 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 4 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 8 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 4.92 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 4.10 - 5.74 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.88 in
Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
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maybe right now but of course these tracks could go back and forth.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.

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Quoting Thing342:
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.

I still say the XTRP is a better model than all except the GFS and ECMWF through the years
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3333. txwcc
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Knew it.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

This is what the GFS thinks on 95L...lets hope this is what happens...hate the thought of anything getting a chance to develop in the hot water


I hope so too. And maybe it will sling some rain STX way.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
Wow that guy on storm2k site has gone down the drain...says recon shouldn't be going into 95L lol!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.

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3329. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40790
if the center of 94L is more north and north east, doesn't that make the liklihood of a recurve east of Florida more likely?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED.
THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.


This is what the GFS thinks on 95L...lets hope this is what happens...hate the thought of anything getting a chance to develop in the hot water
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Quoting RTSplayer:
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...




To be followed by TS BOLAVEN - Taiwan and parts of China are going to take a hit and amounts of rainfall that have the potential for tragic results
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3325. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
The GFS has this as a slow mover. I know I've been posting these for a few days, but they've been largely overlooked.

That is quite a dangerous scenario if it were to materialize.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
94L LLC a few hours from higher SSTs.
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Quoting sar2401:


I haven't even seen a model for 95L that takes it to a TD. What makes you think it will ever get a name?
The GFS shows 1 isobar approaching the northern Leeward Islands in 180 hrs. but that's about it, not even sure if that would be enough for classification, now the waves behind it are a different story.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Jeff9645:


Looking at the XTRP model, that must have been the one used by Dr. M last night when he commented about how 94L could be a Yucatan storm. I'm thinking Dr. M may be correct yet again.
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...


they.can.handle.it
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SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED.
THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...


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3318. hydrus
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

Conditions should be favorable down the road..Here is a current shear map..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
3317. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
could 95L make it before 94L? Who could be Isaac


I haven't even seen a model for 95L that takes it to a TD. What makes you think it will ever get a name?
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3316. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40790
On the latest ensemble runs there were a pretty good amount headed at NC and SC
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Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
I think you're confusing the philosophy of science with scientific fact, and scientific fact is what Dr. Tyson was referring to with that statement. In that regard, then, it's entirely true. In fact, it's the only absolute, provable, and knowable truth in this entire Universe.


Einstein reportedly manipulated E=MC(2)and is reportedly why he did not add the formula to his memoirs. Much like the hockey stick.
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Quoting 954Soxfan:
As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.


Need I remind you Frances and Wilma were pointed at us 5, 6 days, even a week in advance and still hit here?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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