94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Well done, sir. Well done.

(This is the kind of discussion & reasoning we encountered in my Philosophy of Computation course when I was working on my MS.)


Quoting RTSplayer:
IN response to my post 2448, I actually disagree with the logic behind that argument, because there is actually no good reason higher and higher levels of reality couldn't or wouldn't exist.

Regardless of coordinate system, you can always build a matrix with one extra dimension, and fill it with an infinite number of matrices of the known number of dimensions.

So you can neither prove nor refute n 1 dimensions having knowledge of only n dimensions.

There's no logical reason for an arbitrary cut-off in a theory without actual knowledge/observation of that limit.

Further "All possibilities of all possible universes" is a no-limits fallacy.

Once you hypothesis multiple universes, or a "multi-verse," then why not multiple multi-verses?

The implication is there could be universes which are not nested within the same multi-verse matrix as our own.


Another fallacy is the assumption that laws exist at all in other universes.

Another fallacy is the assumption that all laws that exist here exist there. there may be no gravity, or no light, or no nuclear force, etc.


Another fallacy is the assumption that a "alternate possibility" is the same as a "reality" that you could actually travel to.


If I have a 6 sided die and I roll it, there are six possibilities, but once rolled, only one of them is "real". There is no good reason to believe that there is any "alternate timeline" where a different number was the result; it cannot be falsified with the knowledge or technology we have today.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He's ready for his close up

Is that a West Palm beach socialite?
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2511. bappit
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
it seems to me that pacific (eastern/western) are so much easier to predict track wise! They have fronts/troughs from china/asia, high pressure systems over the ocean, upper level lows in place just like the atlantic, so why is it so hard to predict the movement in the atlantic?

Maybe it is just perception: we agonize over them more.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
I'm tired WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SYSTEMS. 94L looks bad! NEXT


It's forecast by the intensity models to be a major.

The track is probably going to suck for a lot of people less fortunate than Americans.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1010 mb. for the Lesser Antilles, most likely a weak tropical storm because of the difference of pressure at the 500 mb. and surface levels.



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it seems to me that pacific (eastern/western) are so much easier to predict track wise! They have fronts/troughs from china/asia, high pressure systems over the ocean, upper level lows in place just like the atlantic, so why is it so hard to predict the movement in the atlantic?
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Quoting unknowncomic:
CLEO 1964My first storm that hit the area. Just a toddler --a lot of downed cocoanut trees. Cement roof shingles flew every where.


Good analog storm!
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I'm tired WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SYSTEMS. 94L looks bad! NEXT
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2505. bappit
Gloria F. Swanson
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all. Staying up long enough to see the 00z GFS run.



Does it even make sense to look at single ensemble member? They are an ensemble for a reason right?
Yes, but that one appears to be one of the more scarier.
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I know most are focused on points beyond but our friends and fellow Americans in the Lesser & Greater Antilles are within a 72hr window and probably would appreciate some good info.
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Quoting bappit:
Somebody going to post the models from the multiverse?


LOL.

If his theory was true we could just send the real data from our own future into another past, and they could send the data from their future into our past, and as long as the time lines are relatively "close" to one another, it would still be better than any model we could construct.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I'm not surprised that ex-Helene is still kickin' with all that jet fuel in the gulf to draw from, but I guess I didn't expect her to get a new invest number. I thought they'd stick with calling her ex-Helene, and then TD or TS if she revived enough.

They aren't considering it ex-Helene...because the circulation of 95L is not the same circulation of Helene. Helene's circulation fizzled out over the mountains of Mexico last night...

Same kind of confusing thing with our most infamous storm of 2005...many thought Katrina was the remnants of TD 10...but then they called it TD 12 because they said that TD 10's circulation was gone before TD 12 spun up...
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2499. bappit
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Huh. Ex-Helene looks like it has been designated as 95L. Or is it just the tag end of that front?

Separate COC that formed in the area of vorticity that included Helene. This kind of thing has happened in the past out in the Campeche. The front is still up in Texas.
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At 45hrs, it has 95 creeping N and fairly well defined.

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all. Staying up long enough to see the 00z GFS run.



Does it even make sense to look at single ensemble member? They are an ensemble for a reason right?
I know I posted it because it was literally showing something on my doorstep, but it is just one of many possible scenarios.
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2496. bappit
Quoting mynameispaul:
What's happening with El Nino? Bueller? Bueller?

Dr. M took time in a previous blog to point out that we are not in an el nino. You can check out the CPC web site for the latest. I think they issue updates on Monday.
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2495. 7544
everyone ready for the new gfs run let see what it shows lights camera ACTION
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I'm not surprised that ex-Helene is still kickin' with all that jet fuel in the gulf to draw from, but I guess I didn't expect her to get a new invest number. I thought they'd stick with calling her ex-Helene, and then TD or TS if she revived enough.
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Evening all. Staying up long enough to see the 00z GFS run.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here is one of the GFS ensemble members:



Does it even make sense to look at single ensemble member? They are an ensemble for a reason right?
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What's happening with El Nino? Bueller? Bueller?
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2491. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat of east side of 95L.
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2490. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
95L struggling this evening near the Coast.

But the Circ is intact, so we watch




That loop shows the spin quite well. Looks more defined than 94L at this time.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Staying up for the GFS since I worship it like God...j/k.



Lol. A lot of us are hooked on it. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Beautiful... it's a shame it's gonna pounds Taiwan as a Category 4, maybe even Category 5 :\



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36:

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Quoting Patrap:
95L struggling this evening near the Coast.

But the Circ is intact, so we watch





Yep
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
27 hrs:

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Staying up for the GFS since I worship it like God...j/k.


ALL HAIL GFS. lol
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Staying up for the GFS since I worship it like God...j/k.

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Quoting Patrap:



There are now 122 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.



NOOOOOOO!!!! Well atleast still 2 1/2 months till DST ends.
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Quoting Patrap:
95L struggling this evening near the Coast.

But the Circ is intact, so we watch





She still has some good circulation and a lot of very warm water out there.
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Pat it's been a rainin' out here where I be all day and most of this evening. So ya rainbow is correct
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If no one is posting I will
18hrs:

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2478. Patrap
95L struggling this evening near the Coast.

But the Circ is intact, so we watch



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
2477. Patrap
95L Floater Page

GOM Rainbow Image


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Did you forget your Metemucil today?


He needs a Snickers bar... :)
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Huh. Ex-Helene looks like it has been designated as 95L. Or is it just the tag end of that front?


Yes, there may still be some life in the old girl yet.
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Taiwan has 23 million people on that that island. Holy C%*#.
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sorry couldn't help it. lol.
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Huh. Ex-Helene looks like it has been designated as 95L. Or is it just the tag end of that front?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You quoted that long post, just to respond Ok? Just refer to post #. Thanks...:)








































OK
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Tropical Cyclones Position Page
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2469. Patrap
I'm mo a Terrance McKenna fan, than a Einstein one,..easily.


There are now 122 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Ok


You quoted that long post, just to respond Ok? Just refer to post #. Thanks...:)
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2467. TxLisa
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Im still thinking we have another Ike on our hands
%I sure hope not. Ike ruined my new hardwood floors! And arguing with the insurance company was not pleasant.
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2466. bappit
Somebody going to post the models from the multiverse?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
IN response to my post 2448, I actually disagree with the logic behind that argument, because there is actually no good reason higher and higher levels of reality couldn't or wouldn't exist.

Regardless of coordinate system, you can always build a matrix with one extra dimension, and fill it with an infinite number of matrices of the known number of dimensions.

There's no logical reason for an arbitrary cut-off in a theory without actual knowledge/observation of that limit.

Further "All possibilities of all possible universes" is a no-limits fallacy.

Once you hypothesis multiple universes, or a "multi-verse," then why not multiple multi-verses?

The implication is there could be universes which are not nested within the same multi-verse matrix as our own.


Another fallacy is the assumption that laws exist at all in other universes.

Another fallacy is the assumption that all laws that exist here exist there. there may be no gravity, or no light, or no nuclear force, etc.


Another fallacy is the assumption that a "alternate possibility" is the same as a "reality" that you could actually travel to.


If I have a 6 sided die and I roll it, there are six possibilities, but once rolled, only one of them is "real". There is no good reason to believe that there is any "alternate timeline" where a different number was the result; it cannot be falsified with the knowledge or technology we have today.

Exactly what I was going to say. Wait while I spark another one up. . . . and give me time to find my flux capacitor, too.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Ok


I know, it's off topic, but not entirely.

It ties back to the string theory comment, because of the "theoretical physics" comment.


What all of this goes to show is we just don't know....
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting RTSplayer:
IN response to my post 2448, I actually disagree with the logic behind that argument, because there is actually no good reason higher and higher levels of reality couldn't or wouldn't exist.

Regardless of coordinate system, you can always build a matrix with one extra dimension, and fill it with an infinite number of matrices of the known number of dimensions.

There's no logical reason for an arbitrary cut-off in a theory without actual knowledge/observation of that limit.

Further "All possibilities of all possible universes" is a no-limits fallacy.

Once you hypothesis multiple universes, or a "multi-verse," then why not multiple multi-verses?

The implication is there could be universes which are not nested within the same multi-verse matrix as our own.


Another fallacy is the assumption that laws exist at all in other universes.

Another fallacy is the assumption that all laws that exist here exist there. there may be no gravity, or no light, or no nuclear force, etc.


Another fallacy is the assumption that a "alternate possibility" is the same as a "reality" that you could actually travel to.


If I have a 6 sided die and I roll it, there are six possibilities, but once rolled, only one of them is "real". There is no good reason to believe that there is any "alternate timeline" where a different number was the result; it cannot be falsified with the knowledge or technology we have today.



Ok
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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