94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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2863. MahFL
94 L is begining to get the classic S shape on visible, and it's large too....

I am in NE FL.
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Good morning. We still are dealing with a very disorganized system, more disorganized than last night. We may see 70% at 8AM:

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Morning All- Don't like the looks of these latest runs..... Floridians need to watch this one closely.
 
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2858. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Last time we've seen 3-4 invests at one time was last year. One became Gert, one became Harvey, one became Franklin, one got absorbed by Gert.


The next couple of weeks will be busy. I just hope they all become shipping concerns only.
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Last time we've seen 3-4 invests at one time was last year. One became Gert, one became Harvey, one became Franklin, one got absorbed by Gert.
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I still expect 94L to miss the Conus and start to hook around 65 west. Have a great day and stay classy

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96L...



95L...



94L...

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2853. trey33
Quoting spathy:


Thats what I thought,Tampa is west Central. So that warning is not for me. Its for West Central and North West Fl.


It's for me though. Ugh. More floating mulch!
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2851. tkdaime
Weather channel Stephanie Abrams put a circle over all of Florida minutes ago and said were keeping an eye out this Friday
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2850. trey33
Quoting spathy:



Did they mean to say NW Fl and not Sw Florida? Tampa is not considered SWF is it?


West Central Florida
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Would a huge plate of bacon, sausage, eggs and biscuits with coffee and orange juice help? I can cook it up quickly. Obviously our food cooking skills are better than our tropics skills. *G*
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2846. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
Quoting spathy:


You were supposed to change the Models.


Oh, but we did! Only it backfired. Mother Nature said we shouldn't try to play with her, she doesn't like it.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
that wave is huge over africa!

Looks to be a single circulation, too.
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2843. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AS
THE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THUNDER IS HEARD OR
LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS EACH DAY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION
EACH DAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
RESIDENT LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR WATER LEVELS...AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING
BE OBSERVED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
Quoting LargoFl:
that could very well happen, best would be it keeps heading west..all the way west into panama, gee i wish


I'm wishing with you. Of course, I would prefer most of all for it not to hit anyone but it's looking like that chance is getting slimmer and slimmer.
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Quoting spathy:
Ok folks this Florida thing was supposed to be done with by the time I woke up this morning. You all did not do your job last night. Shame!


I DID do it! Unless, of course, I wasn't supposed to do it, in which case I didn't do it. What was it I was supposed to do?
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2839. LargoFl
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Interesting. TWC is now saying 94 will not be turning north.
that could very well happen, best would be it keeps heading west..all the way west into panama, gee i wish
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
Quoting emcf30:


Here you go..

Link
Thank you.
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Interesting. TWC is now saying 94 will not be turning north.
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2835. emcf30
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Can you please give the link where you find this info. TIA


Here you go..

Link
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
lots of fronts comming down through the us should keep anything away from the conus the next week or 2


Wrong
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Quoting emcf30:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208200536
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 129N, 185W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 125N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 121N, 214W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Can you please give the link where you find this info. TIA
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2831. emcf30



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208200536
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 129N, 185W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 125N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 121N, 214W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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2830. Gearsts
Guys i think the center will be expose soon and is already north of 15n visible will soon show this.
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2829. Gearsts
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. I am nowhere near being an expert but I really do not see the coc above 15N. Looks to be around 14.8 or thereabouts to me.
Link
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2828. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
2827. LargoFl
Can you imagine..gulf water temps right off..hmmm corpus christi...96 Degree's!!,,whew jet fuel for a hurricane huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
2826. LargoFl
here is what my local met says..ST. PETERSBURG --
The Bay News 9 weather team is keeping an eye on a tropical wave thousands of miles away in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

According to meteorologist Josh Linker, the large system west of the Cape Verde Islands could develop into the next named storm - Isaac - within a couple of days.

Computer models have the system tracking west toward the Caribbean Sea. If it reaches the Caribbean as a tropical storm, it could become a threat to the southeastern United States, including Florida.
But it's way too early to get nervous, meteorologist Linker said.
"There's a whole lot of uncertainty here because we don't yet know where it will develop and how it will develop," he said. "But with what's out there, it does appear it could develop and move to the west in the coming days."

Meanwhile, Hurricane Gordon sped east (away form the United States) across the Atlantic on Sunday toward the Azores islands, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

Gordon weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of 85 mph and higher gusts.

The hurricane was on a forecast track expected to take it near or over the islands of the eastern Azores early Monday. Forecasters said that while the Gordon was expected to weaken somewhat Sunday, it still was expected to be a hurricane passing near or across the eastern Azores.

Meanwhile, onetime Tropical Storm Helene swiftly weakened into a tropical depression as it lumbered ashore on Mexico's Gulf Coast and degenerated into a rain storm without reports of significant damage.

Authorities in Mexico had worried Helene's rains could pose a threat to areas where thousands of people are recovering from flooding spawned last week by Hurricane Ernesto. But Mexico's Veracruz state civil defense office said none of the region's numerous rivers had overflowed Saturday.

Information from the Associated Press was included in this report.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
Quoting Gearsts:
15.2n 43.2w
Good morning. I am nowhere near being an expert but I really do not see the coc above 15N. Looks to be around 14.8 or thereabouts to me.
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that wave is huge over africa!
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2823. LargoFl
..........GFS at 57 hours..so we have alot of time yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
2822. Gearsts
15.2n 43.2w
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Quoting LargoFl:
well for my area that would be a good track but real bad for the northern gulf who already have had over a foot of rain this week
idk but its a possiblity and plus that was in late september so u can imagine its only august!
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2820. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
and the train keeps on rolling.
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2818. emguy
Quoting Grothar:


It has been doing very well. The other models on this have not been that far off. There has been a good 'general' consensus from the beginning. Sometimes we just listen to the wrong people.


I also agree with Gro on that. Personally speaking, I should have never disrespected the GFS in Ernesto. I was on board with Florida climatology in Debby and liked the GFS as the analogous fighter. Then in Erntesto, I fought against it as a proponent that a trough would come down and snag him. I was wrong. I did not respect the narrow ridge the GFS had. As record shows, like it or hate it, the GFS has been a friend...With some error yes, but generally correct in the overall outcome of tropical systems this year. I am listening to the JFS as we move forward.
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2817. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
now largo what if?
well for my area that would be a good track but real bad for the northern gulf who already have had over a foot of rain this week
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
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now largo what if?
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2814. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
Hey Gro and largo can u imagine a season like this!
sure is an active season alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
2813. Gearsts
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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