94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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8 a.m. NHC Discussion (excerpt)
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 20/1200 UTC IS NEAR 37.7N 23.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 115 MILES/180 KM TO THE ENE OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 38N TO 40N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 44N BETWEEN 16W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

Complete 8 a.m. Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2962. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:

According to Doc's blog on the issue the convention center would have to evacuate for a CAT 1. (I think he said 20-ft. of water would inundate.)
a 20 ft surge would only come IF..the storm came IN from the gulf and pushed the bay inland..i doubt that would happen..and IF the storm came here from the east, no surge happening ..maybe if it hugged the west coast of florida and came IN the bay..thats the worst case scenerio, most of pinellas county and western Tampa would flood..here again..we are only talking IF's here...no storm around here and maybe never will
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting spathy:


Morning Doug. Are the frogs starting to drown yet?



LOL!

Yes! Along with everything else!
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Quoting LargoFl:
IF this things gets kinda strong and they order evacs..it could get very serious here with limited road ways OUT of the area and 60,000 plus MORE people added to the population already here..fingers crossed this wont happen..of course no gas stations open or have gas, planes grounded..not a nice thing to think of..me..im staying put IF it comes, dont want to get trapped on some highway some where..but..this is all talk..nothing at all here and maybe never will huh


Our saving grace will be the 94L will cross over Cuba before arriving to FL but if it stays over water then we could have a big problem later this weekend. FL really needs to watch this as SST's near FL are near 90 so anything that gets near FL could ramp up really fast. Many storms in the past have done this in the past ie. Katrina, Rita, and Charley.
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Quoting mobileshadow:


I doubt that a little rain after a drought is going to make a difference with tree damage but it's nice to see ya'll finally getting rain again :)




It's not a little rain. Ground is soaked thoroughly.
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2958. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think DR. Jeff Masters ginxed the RNC. LOL! I think it's funny Doc does a blog about this potential then 94L is born.


Yes but the odds were pretty low, like 2 % or something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
IF this things gets kinda strong and they order evacs..it could get very serious here with limited road ways OUT of the area and 60,000 plus MORE people added to the population already here..fingers crossed this wont happen..of course no gas stations open or have gas, planes grounded..not a nice thing to think of..me..im staying put IF it comes, dont want to get trapped on some highway some where..but..this is all talk..nothing at all here and maybe never will huh


Just stay safe Largo. Still a ways out. Maybe things will change and it won't be as bad. Hope so.
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hey guys convection just popped on E side of the visible LLCOC of 94L located at 15.6N 44.5W
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Levi continues to be spot on with his forecast for 94L. At this time, 94L is positioned just north of where he forecast the low to be yesterday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
2954. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think DR. Jeff Masters ginxed the RNC. LOL! I think it's funny Doc does a blog about this potential then 94L is born.
IF this things gets kinda strong and they order evacs..it could get very serious here with limited road ways OUT of the area and 60,000 plus MORE people added to the population already here..fingers crossed this wont happen..of course no gas stations open or have gas, planes grounded..not a nice thing to think of..me..im staying put IF it comes, dont want to get trapped on some highway some where..but..this is all talk..nothing at all here and maybe never will huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Little more spread among the dynamic models this morning, at least at the end of the runs:

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Quoting shawn26:
Can someone post the 12Z GFS please?


I don't think today's has run yet.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's possible that we get 95L in the Gulf first across FL then 94L what could Issac right up the western side of FL maybe just off the west coast. Now talk about a serious flood set up across the state. This trough that is expected to drench FL this weekend could send 95L in here first.




Wouldn't it go towards the trough axis?
And
94 l is looking like a Florida storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
33ft wave heights set to hit Taiwan in 72hrs.



If that verifies that is going to be one hell of a storm. It must blow completely through the island and out the other side as a major...
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2949. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

YA TX high too strong!


Hey it's called the Missouri Dome this year. ;) lol
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2947. shawn26
Can someone post the 12Z GFS please?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Keep in mind the GFS isn't showing that strong of a storm impacting FL, it would only be a TS if this panned out:



Rain would be a big problem.

According to Doc's blog on the issue the convention center would have to evacuate for a CAT 1. (I think he said 20-ft. of water would inundate.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
geez and we have 60,000 plus people coming here this week


I think DR. Jeff Masters ginxed the RNC. LOL! I think it's funny Doc does a blog about this potential then 94L is born.
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no.i.yet
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Keep in mind the GFS isn't showing that strong of a storm impacting FL, it would only be a TS if this panned out:



Rain would be a big problem.
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez and we have 60,000 plus people coming here this week

Wuz wondering what the number was. Sheesh.
City Planner must be about to have an egg.
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Quoting txwcc:
Ain't happening. 12Z GFS out to lunch.


YA TX high too strong!
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Quoting LargoFl:
what do you think ST..up the spine of florida?


It's possible that we get 95L in the Gulf first across FL then 94L what could Issac right up the western side of FL maybe just off the west coast. Now talk about a serious flood set up across the state. This trough that is expected to drench FL this weekend could send 95L in here first.


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94L looks like two different systems on ShortWave and Water Vapor loops.
LinkSWLoop

Link WV Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
that wave is huge over africa!
KIRK!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2937. LargoFl
Quoting txwcc:


The last three runs of the GFS (18Z, 00Z, and 6Z) show a Florida landfall for Isaac.

I expect much the same for the 12Z.
geez and we have 60,000 plus people coming here this week
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2936. LargoFl
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Wow…I don't like this morning's GFS at all!!! It even takes 94L back south into South Florida a second time.
oh boy, i hope this changes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
33ft wave heights set to hit Taiwan in 72hrs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expect flooding the next several days across C and N FL. I would be surprised to see some areas of western FL to receive up to 10" of rain this week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2933. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here is the reason below. This has FL landfall written all over it.

WNW steering straigth into FL.

what do you think ST..up the spine of florida?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Code orange in the Gulf.


I wonder if now my locals will say anything about it. At the very least maybe more models will be run on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2931. WxLogic
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Euro and GFS send 94L soon to be Issac into FL this weekend with affects as early as Saturday. Situation looks earily similar to TS FAY in 2008.



That thought has crossed my mind. Assuming it develops.
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hmm
94L 80%
95L 30%
96L 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201144
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For Tembin:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2012 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 18:52:11 N Lon : 125:04:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 941.9mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txwcc:


The last three runs of the GFS (18Z, 00Z, and 6Z) show a Florida landfall for Isaac.

I expect much the same for the 12Z.


Here is the reason below. This has FL landfall written all over it.

WNW steering straigth into FL.

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Wow…I don't like this morning's GFS at all!!! It even takes 94L back south into South Florida a second time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, received a whopping Tenth of an inch, first rain since Middle of July, some areas got more. Stage 3 Water restrictions start today for San Marcos. Have a great day, waiting for tropical system or El Nino to kick in and bring South Texas the rains it desperately needs. The San Antonio area did receive great rains over the weekend, also north and east of Austin. http://www.statesman.com/news/local/san-marcos-ent ers-stage-3-water-restrictions-2437197.html?cxtype =rss_news
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link


Lol. I'm old and slow. Especially this time of day. :)
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Code orange in the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L remains at 80%, 95L up to 30%, 96L still at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Link


Link
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Euro and GFS send 94L soon to be Issac into FL this weekend with affects as early as Saturday. Situation looks earily similar to TS FAY in 2008.

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Quoting victoria780:
MAYBE SOMEONE ELSE CAN HELP.GOING TO WORK.THANKS

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting victoria780:
CK 12 Z (ALLEN HUFFMAN)
MAYBE SOMEONE ELSE CAN HELP.GOING TO WORK.THANKS
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Looks like this weekend is going to be down right nasty here in FL as the GFS is spitting out 20" of rain across SE FL. Come on Issac!



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Quoting mobileshadow:


I doubt that a little rain after a drought is going to make a difference with tree damage but it's nice to see ya'll finally getting rain again :)


Been raining a lot here over the past month +. The drought was broken quite a bit earlier this summer. We just seem to be in one of those patterns where it's raining almost every day.
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Quoting victoria780:
CK 12 Z (ALLEN HUFFMAN)

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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