July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Gearsts:
In the peak of the season the MJO is not as important to get systems going so don't worry about it.
kool got ya. i just never understood it at all
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1504. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
so that means no big blow ups at all?
In the peak of the season the MJO is not as important to get systems going so don't worry about it.
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Maybe this was posted, anyhow.... info

MSG-3, Europe’s latest weather satellite, delivers first image
August 7, 2012

Today, the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on MSG-3 captured its first image of the Earth.
[link]Contact Us

This demonstrates that Europe’s latest geostationary weather satellite, launched on 5 July, is performing well and is on its way to taking over operational service after six months of commissioning.

The European Space Agency (ESA) was responsible for the initial operations after launch (the so-called launch and early orbit phase) of MSG-3 and handed over the satellite to EUMETSAT on 16 July.

The first image is a joint achievement by ESA, EUMETSAT, and the European space industry. For its mandatory programmes, EUMETSAT relies on ESA for the development of new satellites and the procurement of recurrent satellites like MSG-3. This cooperation model has made Europe a world leader in satellite meteorology by making best use of the respective expertise of the two agencies.

FIRST IMAGE:

Link
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By the MJO being weak, will it stay that way or change soon? and wat made it become weak for some reason?
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1501. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:


lol I thought you had put me on your ignore list last year
Wait nvm you are in.
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Quoting Gearsts:
No we don't, just you.


lol I thought you had put me on your ignore list last year
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Quoting Gearsts:
Weak pulse
so that means no big blow ups at all?
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1498. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
what happen to the MJO in the GOM and atlantic??
Weak pulse
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what happen to the MJO in the GOM and atlantic??
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I think Gordon, like Rina of last year, will be upgraded to a major upon post-analysis. Who knows, perhaps he can pull off one last spectacle before his environment goes way downhill - the storms this year have been anything but predictable. The only one that has been was... Alberto, haha.
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1493. pcola57
Their lining up in the Pacific..



And Guam is getting tropical also.. :)



ok..off to slumberland.. :)
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Lol. I can't tell the gfs does anything with said "energy"

HPC

...REMNANTS OF HELENE...
...OTHER ENERGY INITIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF HELENE...

PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY FOR HELENE WAS ISSUED AT 03Z. THE NAM IS
STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY REACHING THE NERN
GULF BY F84 EARLY WED. THE CANADIAN GLBL/12Z ECMWF ARE RATHER
CONCENTRATED WITH ENERGY NEAR THE MEXICO COAST LATE MON ONWARD.
PREFER THE GFS/UKMET THAT GENERALLY LEAN AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SPREAD.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll do you one better:

Two drums and a cymbal fall off a cliff...

Ba-dum-tiss!


LMAO, that was great!
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1490. pcola57
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very true....

But we also have our homeland contaminated... The Nevada testing grounds and New Mexico. Everytime we get a dust storm or forest fire from those areas, the radiation buried there is carried out to the E by the jet stream or by the local weather patterns....

How many tests were performed? Link

The follwing graph is the per capita thyroid doses (in rads) in the continental United States resulting from all exposure routes from all atmospheric nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site from 1951%u20131962



No argument here..
I agree..
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Quoting bigwes6844:
look at the High!


Yep. Pretty strong over the NE.
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1488. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
60%!
:(
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Quoting Gearsts:
80%
60%!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 395
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST
ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE...LOCATED INLAND OVER
MEXICO...ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Will. :) I'm glad they're not showing a cane headed your way. For these runs anyway. This is where 94l ends up before disappearing for good inland here. Lol. His last gasp.

look at the High!
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1484. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
new TWO coming out! F5 F5 F5 F5!!!!!!!!lol
80%
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Quoting pcola57:


Thanks sunlinepr for that link,
They The French)shoild be ashamed and prepare for worst case senerio ,using their own money in some kind of a diaster fund IMO..


Very true....

But we also have our homeland contaminated... The Nevada testing grounds and New Mexico. Everytime we get a dust storm or forest fire from those areas, the radiation buried there is carried out to the E by the jet stream or by the local weather patterns....

How many tests were performed? Link

The follwing graph is the per capita thyroid doses (in rads) in the continental United States resulting from all exposure routes from all atmospheric nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site from 1951-1962



The half life of many nuclear fission products is over 200 years...
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new TWO coming out! F5 F5 F5 F5!!!!!!!!lol
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Quoting will40:



last run dissipates it


Hi Will. :) I'm glad they're not showing a cane headed your way. For these runs anyway. This is where 94l ends up before disappearing for good inland here. Lol. His last gasp.

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It's Florida's turn tonight. :)

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1479. pcola57
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Radioactive Tsunamis?

It is 2012, after all....


My take away is the collasping and iresonponsibility of it..
Radioactive Tsunamis was their inflamatory words..
I was dismayed about the deed preformed on the atoll.. :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:


This is worst....

Why do hurricanes travel so fast? Because if they travelled slowly, we'd have to call them slow-i-canes.


Actually, I like this one better :)
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1477. Gearsts
Lo q Ada monzon cree.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
RadioAustralia report:

Nuclear fears over French Polynesia atoll collapse - Nuclear test site in danger of collapsing — Could create 15 meter tsunami — 193 explosions conducted in little area


Link




Another low forming in the South? That was one of the forecasts last night....


Radioactive Tsunamis?

It is 2012, after all....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


This is worst....

Why do hurricanes travel so fast? Because if they travelled slowly, we'd have to call them slow-i-canes.


I'll do you one better:

Two drums and a cymbal fall off a cliff...

Ba-dum-tiss!
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1474. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:
94L hold on! we, in the northern leewards need your rain
No we don't, just you.
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1473. pcola57
Quoting sunlinepr:
RadioAustralia report:

Nuclear fears over French Polynesia atoll collapse - Nuclear test site in danger of collapsing %u2014 Could create 15 meter tsunami %u2014 193 explosions conducted in little area


Link




Another low forming in the South? That was one of the forecasts last night....


Thanks sunlinepr for that link,
They The French)shoild be ashamed and prepare for worst case senerio ,using their own money in some kind of a diaster fund IMO..
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94L hold on! we, in the northern leewards need your rain
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1471. Gearsts
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1470. scott39
Dust particles from Africa are not going to allow TCs to develope in the central Atlantic.....no moisture...no storm.
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1469. JLPR2
Quoting wxchaser97:
Took these on the last night of vacation, even saw the dissipation of a waterspout but wasnt able to capture it.


Neat. First one is my favorite, rated them for ya. XD
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Wow, that's................Bad


This is worst....

Why do hurricanes travel so fast? Because if they travelled slowly, we'd have to call them slow-i-canes.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I think it's transitioning to extratropical.

Looks like its slowly starting the transition and I meant later today.
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1466. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Another low forming in the South? That was one of the forecasts last night....


I'm thinking the low is somewhere between those two blobs, though closer to the one further north. Expecting convection to form between them.
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1465. scott39
94L will be the another casualty of dry dusty air and wind shear. It may hold it together for another Mexico strike.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Still got an eyewall but seeing weakening beginning, going to write a blog tomorrow.


I think it's transitioning to extratropical.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
WV for 94L, SAL/dry air will have some sort of impact.
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RadioAustralia report:

Nuclear fears over French Polynesia atoll collapse - Nuclear test site in danger of collapsing — Could create 15 meter tsunami — 193 explosions conducted in little area


Link




Another low forming in the South? That was one of the forecasts last night....
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1461. will40
Quoting justsouthofnola:
gfs calls for 94l to go to the gom



last run dissipates it
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Still got an eyewall but seeing weakening beginning, going to write a blog later today.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Lame joke time...

What happened to the group from Europe who went on a trip to the Great Plains to see thunderstorms?

They got caught up in a tournado!


Wow, that's................Bad
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1458. scott39
Tracking MAPS are not the same as tracking a TC.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Lame joke time...

What happened to the group from Europe who went on a trip to the Great Plains to see thunderstorms?

They got caught up in a tournado!

Lol, my cousins are in Europe right now.
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Lame joke time...

What happened to the group from Europe who went on a trip to the Great Plains to see thunderstorms?

They got caught up in a tournado!
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1455. air360
Quoting KoritheMan:


That would have been ****ing awesome.


Yeah it is thinking about it now. At the time though all the cars were going like 10mph and when it hit i ducked down to the side in my car and hit my brakes while I was going down so i didnt hit the car in front of me lol...scared the crap outta me to be honest!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.