July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1555. emguy
Footnote...anything going on in the Western Gulf is likely to be compact, and elongated on a north-south axis.
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1554. LargoFl
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bingo Largo......Good morning.
Good morning Palm beach, had a good shower awhile ago, looks like this will keep up all day here around tampa bay..hows the weather over there?..looks like you folks had some good rains there too yesterday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39052
Quoting pcola57:


Thats quite abit of movement...odd..o-O

A few days ago one of the meteorologists said it had been moving west at 15 knots. I haven't checked its tandem relationship with 94L but that's got to give the western track a little help.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Chicklit..
it looks that wau on MIMIC..and the Eyewall is seeming to responde in kind..what ya think?

I think Gordon's glory days are over. Except forecast to dump 5-6 inches of rain over the Azores.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
1551. emguy
As a footnote...don't forget to look at the Western Gulf today folks...for the spawn of Helene. There is some indication there are goings on over there. Check out the shortwave loops ;)
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1550. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
Another cross-over???



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY
could THIS be what the models had off Nola's coast by wens?..a crossover?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39052
1549. WxLogic
Good Morning
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1548. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:
Interesting to note that according to the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion the Atlantic high was centered at 27N 57W at 8 p.m. and was at 24N 65W in the 2 a.m. Discussion.



Thats quite abit of movement...odd..o-O
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Interesting to note that according to the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion the Atlantic high was centered at 27N 57W at 8 p.m. and was at 24N 65W in the 2 a.m. Discussion.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
1546. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, you're up early.


yeah...
Rough night with Mom..
She's sleeping now though.. :)
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1545. Grothar
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning San Antonio..



And Houston..



Comin' your way New Orleans..





Wow, you're up early.
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1544. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi pcola57. Gordon must have reached the colder water by now.


Hey Chicklit..
it looks that way on MIMIC..and the Eyewall is seeming to responde in kind..what ya think?
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1543. Grothar
Quoting emguy:
It will take some time for 94L to develop...but it will definately happen.

The overall circulation envelope of this system is simply massive. In 27 years of tracking, it may be one of the largest, if not the largest I have ever seen.

That said, these large circulation systems in the tropics always form, but like a figure skater with her arms out, it takes a lot of time.

The only other note I may make about this, is with the large structure, he will not be as fragile as we have seen with other systems. Things like rapid fluctuations in intensity will likely not occur, just the same, this is the type of system that does not decouple...in fact, this is the type of system that becomes dominant and dictates other surrounding weather.

We've got a good one to watch in 94L.


This one does cover a lot of territory. Andrew just looked like a bunch of disorganized clouds and the mets wrote him off twice. Then boom. There he was.
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Hi pcola57. Gordon must have reached the colder water by now.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
1541. pcola57
Yawn..Did Gordon go through EWR..
Or going through one?

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Good Sunday morning Wunderpeople! Up an at 'em!


If you click on the shortwave floater loop you can see 94L's circulation between the two blobs.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
1539. Grothar
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1538. pcola57
Good Morning San Antonio..



And Houston..



Comin' your way New Orleans..



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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:

Yup....No longer looks like a shrimp...Maybe a shredded jellyfish but sure as heck no shrimp.
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Did it get any higher last night? (the wind speed)
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Very good agreement among the dynamic models:



Statisticals are farther north:

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Morning
94L looks rather disorganised, and to use the terminology of the nhc development of this system will be slow to occur. the convection has waxed and waned, indicative that some dry air intrusion into the system. Like it's predecessors Earnesto and TD7, this area of disturbed weather is having great difficulty in getting it's act together.
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1533. emguy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:



Highly disagree. The envelope is broad, and it will take time for this to completely consolidate. When it does, it will be a large system. At this stage in development, considering the nature of system this is, it is well organized at this stage of development considering it's longitutde. This one is showing the structure of something that may be very dangerous down the road.
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1532. emguy
It will take some time for 94L to develop...but it will definately happen.

The overall circulation envelope of this system is simply massive. In 27 years of tracking, it may be one of the largest, if not the largest I have ever seen.

That said, these large circulation systems in the tropics always form, but like a figure skater with her arms out, it takes a lot of time.

The only other note I may make about this, is with the large structure, he will not be as fragile as we have seen with other systems. Things like rapid fluctuations in intensity will likely not occur, just the same, this is the type of system that does not decouple...in fact, this is the type of system that becomes dominant and dictates other surrounding weather.

We've got a good one to watch in 94L.
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http://www.azoreswebcams.com/santa-maria-webcam-v ila-do-porto/

Santa Maria Azores webcam
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Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:

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Another cross-over???



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do people keep posting what the models say when... NOTHING has formed yet.
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Quoting LargoFl:
I take these model runs of 94L with a grain of salt ..why because NOTHING has formed yet and until something does form,whatever is out there is just a bunch of moving westward thunderstorms, we will see in a few days IF something forms, then the planes will go out there and the models will start REALLY picking up on it..until then we watch and wait huh
Bingo Largo......Good morning.
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1526. LargoFl
I take these model runs of 94L with a grain of salt ..why because NOTHING has formed yet and until something does form,whatever is out there is just a bunch of moving westward thunderstorms, we will see in a few days IF something forms, then the planes will go out there and the models will start REALLY picking up on it..until then we watch and wait huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39052
1525. LargoFl
...good morning folks and happy sunday to one and all..looks like a wet setup for the week ahead around the Tampa bay area..then again these forecasts change from day to day huh...well anyway..Have a wonderful day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39052
1524. VR46L
I know 94l is a bust in the Euro models and is no longer the DOOMcane in the GFS models..I will be keeping an eye on it!



Look at the environment



What is ahead could cleanse and moisten the air...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
1523. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

ANNULAR!!!
jk
But Gordon does look good, at least on your post. As of now Gordon seems to be weakening, with its appearance looking sorta ragged.
Latest image of Gordon:


LOL .got my one just a little while ago from the Navy site maybe they are slower updating images
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting VR46L:
My !!! Gordon you are quite the handsome Stud... but please be gentle with the Azores


ANNULAR!!!
jk
But Gordon does look good, at least on your post. As of now Gordon seems to be weakening, with its appearance looking sorta ragged.
Latest image of Gordon:
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1521. VR46L
My !!! Gordon you are quite the handsome Stud... but please be gentle with the Azores

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for CategoryTwo HurricaneGordon for 19August6amGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 965millibars to 969millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 95knots(109mph)176km/h to 90knots(104mph)167km/h
Vector changed from 81.1*East@24.1mph(38.8km/h) to 77.9*ENEast@23.3mph(37.5km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The westernmost dot is where TS.Gordon became a Hurricane
The next dot east is where H.Gordon became Cat.2
The westernmost dot on the longest line is H.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
18August12pmGMT: Cat.1 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 267miles(430kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
18August6pmGMT: Cat.2 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 251miles(403kilometres)South of SantaMaria (top of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August12amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 135miles(217kilometres)South of SantaMaria (lone unlabeled dot beneath the straightline projection)
19August6amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon was heading for passage 88miles(142kilometres)SouthSouthEast of SantaMaria in ~16&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, 33.096n25.71w-33.321n25.583w, 34.975n24.941w, sma, 34.0n39.6w-34.0n37.5w, 34.0n37.5w-34.3n35.0w, 34.3n35.0w-34.7n32.6w, 34.3n35.0w-35.655n24.842w, 36.928n25.017w-35.655n24.842w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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1519. NJ2S
Quoting Kowaliga:
I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...



I HOPE THIS IS
Quoting Kowaliga:
I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...



I LIKE THAT SCENARIO BETTER
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

GFS fails to really develop the system...which is why it shows a straight west track for 120 hrs. It keeps it weak/shallow incapable of feeling upper voritcity features to the NW that would otherwise pull it more poleward...
oh okay. but thats crazy!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
uhh? what the heck is the Gfs tryna do here?

GFS fails to really develop the system...which is why it shows a straight west track for 120 hrs. It keeps it weak/shallow incapable of feeling upper voritcity features to the NW that would otherwise pull it more poleward...
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1516. 7544
looks like whatever is left from 94l still makes it all the way to so fla ala the gfs last run

Link
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uhh? what the heck is the Gfs tryna do here?
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For those that are blogging very late into the night...I just did a special update...as I finally got time to do an in-depth analysis on 94L...

This 94L update also has a link to my latest full assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics...feel free to leave questions/comments...
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1512. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (T1214)
15:00 PM JST August 19 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tembin (1000 hPa) located at 17.4N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.2N 125.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.8N 125.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.0N 123.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
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1511. SLU
625

WHXX01 KWBC 190646

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0646 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600 120820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 34.8W 15.3N 38.1W 16.0N 41.5W 16.8N 45.6W

BAMD 14.4N 34.8W 15.0N 37.7W 15.5N 40.6W 16.0N 43.5W

BAMM 14.4N 34.8W 15.3N 37.9W 15.9N 41.1W 16.8N 44.8W

LBAR 14.4N 34.8W 14.9N 38.2W 15.6N 41.8W 16.2N 45.6W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0600 120822 0600 120823 0600 120824 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.5N 49.9W 18.5N 58.9W 19.6N 67.8W 20.1N 76.0W

BAMD 16.5N 46.5W 16.6N 52.4W 16.0N 57.6W 15.0N 61.3W

BAMM 17.6N 48.6W 18.6N 56.5W 20.1N 64.3W 22.4N 71.1W

LBAR 16.9N 49.2W 17.8N 56.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 92KTS

DSHP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 34.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 26.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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1510. SLU


121

WHXX01 KWBC 190632

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0632 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120819 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600 120820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.7N 32.6W 35.5N 29.2W 36.1N 26.3W 36.9N 23.2W

BAMD 34.7N 32.6W 36.3N 26.8W 39.2N 21.5W 43.2N 16.0W

BAMM 34.7N 32.6W 35.8N 27.7W 37.7N 23.4W 40.4N 19.2W

LBAR 34.7N 32.6W 35.7N 27.9W 38.1N 24.0W 41.9N 19.6W

SHIP 90KTS 78KTS 63KTS 50KTS

DSHP 90KTS 78KTS 63KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0600 120822 0600 120823 0600 120824 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 37.5N 20.3W 38.6N 15.5W 39.0N 11.5W 41.2N 6.9W

BAMD 47.4N 9.1W 54.7N 6.4E 58.1N 24.1E 58.6N 40.9E

BAMM 43.0N 14.1W 46.7N 2.4W 50.6N 9.8E 52.3N 26.2E

LBAR 46.8N 12.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 37KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 37KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.7N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 37.5W DIRM12 = 84DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 34.0N LONM24 = 41.5W

WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 90KT

CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 80NM



$$

NNNN
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Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
1508. JLPR2
94L's 850mb vort weakening.

I'm out, goodnight!
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I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...

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Quoting Gearsts:
In the peak of the season the MJO is not as important to get systems going so don't worry about it.
kool got ya. i just never understood it at all
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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