July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1605. LargoFl
There is a flash flood warning for the Austin Texas area also.............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT

* AT 758 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLOODING OVER EASTERN DURHAM
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF DURHAM SINCE 630 AM.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE PARKWOOD...GORMAN AND
BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER CAN CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUP TRUCKS. TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1604. scott39
Good morning, The common theme this season is dust from Africa. I dont look for TCs to develope into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. The Western Caribbean,GOM and the East coast are where your going to see TCs possibly develope into Major Hurricanes. It looks like that 94L is not going to slow down until its more into the Caribbean. It also looks like that the models continue to bring it father W. Timing of its fast movement and the trough, will determine if it strikes the East Coast, somewhere on the Gulf Coast or not at all. Considering that Mexico has been a target over the past few seasons, I definitely at this point would not take them off the list. It looks less likely that the Islands will be dealing with a Major Hurricane.
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1603. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1602. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
Some of the left-over garbage from Helene appears to be moving north and merging with the tail of the front, though the old mid-level circulation is still well inland near where it was 2 days ago...

Maybe this is what the models were "developing" into a TD or TS a few days ago...

It's probably just over-done by the models.
yes keeping an eye on it thru wens,see what happens
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Some of the left-over garbage from Helene appears to be moving north and merging with the tail of the front, though the old mid-level circulation is still well inland near where it was 2 days ago...

Maybe this is what the models were "developing" into a TD or TS a few days ago...

It's probably just over-done by the models.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1600. LargoFl
looks like its going to be a rainy and stormy day all around the gulf coast today..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1599. emguy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.


I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.


This one has such a large circulation envelope that forward speed will not affect it. In fact, the circulation envelope has become so large that it has turned the entire Atlantic ITCZ into a trough extension to the south...Which is pretty significant. 94L will draw in dry air to the north, but will be counterbalanced by deep tropical moisture it pulls in from that. In a sense, 94L has absorbed all weather in practically the entire MDR zone of the tropical atlantic, and has made it it's own...for good or for bad...it;s doing it. LINK
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1598. LargoFl
Quoting pcola57:
Sorry..having to sign off for obvious reasons.. :)

lots of lightning with that cell huh..stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Quoting stoormfury:
quite a complex situation developing in the catl. first there is wave at 47w ,there is also a weak low near 9n 39w and finally 94L. It appears that all three systems wii merge, judging from the speed of 94L.this will create a hugh and complex system.

That appears to be a possibility that can be extrapolated from the report TropicsWeatherPR posted from the NHC Met in PR this morning unless I am reading it wrong (Post 1564). There is more than one wave out there, so 94L may never catch up and remain pretty disorganized, but one cannot forget the ones still to the east. I think that is the most prudent and probably best interpretation of what the met is saying.
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1596. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
To pick up on what I said earlier, here are a couple 0z GFS ensemble members:







Hey MA, I'll give you a box of cookies if you could not post that ugly purple and pink image.

As I wrote the other night, it looks like somebody poured Pepto Bismol on a purple popcicle. LOLOLOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1595. LargoFl
Oh boy, that guy from the Houston area yesterday was asking for rain in his area..by the looks of this radar he sure got it last night and into today......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1594. pcola57
Sorry..having to sign off for obvious reasons.. :)

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Quoting pcola57:
Yawn..Did Gordon go through EWR..
Or going through one?



Nah this is expect.

It crossed the 26C threshold late last night, and this morning it's already crossing the boundary of 25C and 24C.

It will either hybridize or die now, just a matter of time...

edit: but it still has a lot of spin and momentum so it will take a while to wind down...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1592. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.


I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.


Here is a link for you, I think you may find interesting. That is why I never compare one storm to another. The mets had written off Andrew 3 different times. Only Brian Norcross was insisting to follow it closely. You could tell from his body language he may have known more than he was able to tell. He probably saved a lot of people's lives. Many could tell by the sincerity in his voice that we were going to experience something we had not seen in a long time. Now I am NOT comparing this to Andrew, but don't ever judge one storm by another.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
quite a complex situation developing in the catl. first there is wave at 47w ,there is also a weak low near 9n 39w and finally 94L. It appears that all three systems wii merge, judging from the speed of 94L.this will create a hugh and complex system.
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Quoting LargoFl:
we must remember the normal tracks for august hurricanes huh..either up the east coast or into the gulf and into the texas or nola region in the western gulf

Well, with the ATL High out there it sure looks more likely than it did last year. The question is also intensity with all that dry air out there, but with so many CV waves in such close succession the odds are greater that something will develop into a stronger landfalling system somewhere in the Carib Basin or the CONUS.
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To pick up on what I said earlier, here are a couple 0z GFS ensemble members:





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1588. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1587. pcola57
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.


Alot of "possibilties" right now eh? :)

Quoting gugi182:
Should we worried here in Puerto Rico. If 94L is moving so fast and doesn't wants to slow down it's movement speed?

Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status by the end of the day?


If I lived in Puerto Rico and it was tropical season time,I would be ready for anything my friend.. :)
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1586. Grothar
Quoting pcola57:


#1562

Ok..now thats a pretty good graphic Gro.. :)


I have fun with that one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1585. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.
Some of the GFS ensemble members are on board with one of these scenarios, so don't be surprised to see the operational pick it up at 12z.
we must remember the normal tracks for august hurricanes huh..either up the east coast or into the gulf and into the texas or nola region in the western gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Quoting Chicklit:


If you read #1564 TropicsPR, the met thinks it is catching up with the wave at 47W. Now that would be something, wouldn't it?

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.

Quoting Grothar:


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed

I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.
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Quoting Grothar:


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed

The NHC in PR suggested it is catching up with the wave in front. Then there are waves behind it. Somebody's gonna get wet!
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Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.
Some of the GFS ensemble members are on board with one of these scenarios, so don't be surprised to see the operational pick it up at 12z.
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1581. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.


If you read #1564 TropicsPR, the met thinks it is catching up with the wave at 47W. Now that would be something, wouldn't it?
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1579. gugi182
Should we worried here in Puerto Rico. If 94L is moving so fast and doesn't wants to slow down it's movement speed?

Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status by the end of the day?
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1578. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1577. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
This is the FIM7.

sure is going to be a nail biting week ahead for alot of folks huh..how strong it will be and IS it coming to my area and should I be getting my things together..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1576. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


#1562

Ok..now thats a pretty good graphic Gro.. :)
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1575. gugi182
7:36am 94L still at 60%. Hurricane Gordon down to 100mph still a Cat.2 Hurricane.
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1574. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1573. Grothar
This is the FIM7.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369


NHC thinks it will develop into a TS
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1571. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1570. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 30.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
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Is this what you mean by large emcf?


Link WV Loop CATL
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1566. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:

A few days ago one of the meteorologists said it had been moving west at 15 knots. I haven't checked its tandem relationship with 94L but that's got to give the western track a little help.


You know..I've really got to say it..Just my observation of course,but this has been the strangest weather year that I can remember..A year of excesses as it were..and deprivations..
Natures scales are un-balanced this year by many increments..
Possibly the rest of the year will bode well for us all.. :)
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1565. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
if i lived on Hispanola I'd be getting my things together and getting ready for a big storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Good morning. This is the excerpt from the San Juan NWS regarding what is going on in the tropics that I find very interesting.

MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
There has been the intrusion of dry air into the north and northwest of 94 L. this can be seen .with the arc clouds coming from the system in the northwest.
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1562. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1561. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
whoa..we have to watch the gulf mid week Tampa bay folks..dunno what this is or will be..
didnt quite catch the frame but whatever it becomes ,comes towards florida's west coast according to the Nam
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
1560. LargoFl
whoa..we have to watch the gulf mid week Tampa bay folks..dunno what this is or will be..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Quoting LargoFl:
could THIS be what the models had off Nola's coast by wens?..a crossover?

There are elements of the system that came all the way from Africa! And if it could regenerate into something else, that would be amazing. Still NHC at 2 a.m. said they were giving their last Helene Discussion.
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1558. LargoFl
.............just scattered showers around the bay area so far
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
Meanwhile... a pic from the arctic taken from the Healy

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1556. LargoFl
Quoting emguy:
As a footnote...don't forget to look at the Western Gulf today folks...for the spawn of Helene. There is some indication there are goings on over there. Check out the shortwave loops ;)
yes for sure its something to watch..remember the models Had something there around wens
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1555. emguy
Footnote...anything going on in the Western Gulf is likely to be compact, and elongated on a north-south axis.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.