July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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94L they go up to Cat 3 and 4
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The tropical central Atlantic is much more stable than normal as evidenced by the current anomaly and the seasonal graph below:



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All broad centers are below at or below 12N

you can clearly see the center of 94L
on this link at around 12N/37W Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Saw that. The invest's winds are back down to 25 knots, and the pressure is back up to 1011mb--the highest pressure associated with 94L to date. It may still spin up into the monster some were speaking of yesterday, but it's got quite a ways to go to get there.


I think it got bisected by shear.

I wouldn't expect any really development until about 42W.

Which kinda sucks for today because today will be very boring, cause that's like 24 or 30 hours from now...
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SHIP goes nuts again with intensity.

191244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120819 1200 120820 0000 120820 1200 120821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 36.4W 15.5N 39.5W 16.5N 43.2W 17.5N 47.5W
BAMD 14.4N 36.4W 15.1N 39.1W 15.8N 41.8W 16.6N 44.6W
BAMM 14.4N 36.4W 15.4N 39.3W 16.3N 42.6W 17.4N 46.1W
LBAR 14.4N 36.4W 14.9N 39.4W 15.4N 42.7W 15.9N 46.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120821 1200 120822 1200 120823 1200 120824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 52.1W 18.4N 61.3W 18.5N 70.0W 17.8N 76.4W
BAMD 17.3N 47.4W 17.6N 52.9W 17.3N 57.5W 16.2N 59.8W
BAMM 18.2N 49.9W 18.8N 58.0W 19.8N 66.2W 21.4N 72.9W
LBAR 16.5N 49.5W 17.7N 56.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS
DSHP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 32.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 28.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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1650. GetReal


Remnant low that was once Helene beginning to exit Mexican coast. IMO

There is still a weak swirl.
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Day 7
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Good morning everyone! Looks like I may have a little crow to eat, with my thoughts yesterday to discount the models not showing strong development of 94L.

The strong vorticity is still there, but the surface convergence is down with the ITCZ to 94L's south. Most of the deep convection is located down there, and the area of vorticity should race westward, independent of this other area of convection. There is a LOT of SAL evident on the RGB loops surrounding the disturbance to the north, and all the way across it's future path.

The area of vorticity resides in a stable environment, as evidenced by the image below. Anything below zero is stable.

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Big rain for FL
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Quoting scott39:
If evacuation is needed this season, I wish people would use thier common since. If your on the beach or not far from it, then yes evacuate. If your in a mobile home and you live in a flood zone.... then yes evacuate. But if your are in a house that is farther inland and on a slab....then that is your best shelter. This would eliminate mass confusion outrageous Chaos and what I call end of the world mentality.


double edge sword. if you stay theres a greater risk of death however, if you leave the streets may get clogged and you get stuck
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Waiting for Kman and Levy's assessment this morning of the overall steering pattern for 94L this upcoming week. Is there a blocking high setting up in the Western Atlantic preventing a recurve?
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1644. GetReal



It is getting extremely dark to the west of NOLA!!!
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1643. scott39
If evacuation is needed this season, I wish people would use thier common since. If your on the beach or not far from it, then yes evacuate. If your in a mobile home and you live in a flood zone.... then yes evacuate. But if your are in a house that is farther inland and on a slab....then that is your best shelter. This would eliminate mass confusion outrageous Chaos and what I call end of the world mentality.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB
Saw that. The invest's winds are back down to 25 knots, and the pressure is back up to 1011mb--the highest pressure associated with 94L to date. It may still spin up into the monster some were speaking of yesterday, but it's got quite a ways to go to get there.
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1641. pottery
Good Sunday morning, all.
Not surprisingly, it's raining !
Some flashes and rumbles earlier.
Pressure 1016, which is another surprise to me.
Wind ESE 10mph.

Interesting to read the discussion and look at the various models this morning.
Still a lot of if's and but's on 94L. But in the meantime it is a huge area of wet air with potential still for mischief down the road.

Keep an eye on it, I say .
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Good morning guys..........looks like an EWRC on gordon.
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Quoting Joshfsu123:
I wouldn't live by every model run - take each model and see if there are patterns, etc. But one model run is meaningless and shouldn't be hyped because the next one could have a completely different outcome unless you are seeing a pattern.

The overall pattern of the models have shifted west over the past few days... that's the current take away. It is still WAY TOO FAR out to determine where 94L might ever make landfall.

Besides, it hasn't even developed yet and the way it looks this morning, it won't be developing today. Until we get a storm, these models are worth a whole lot.


We don't take anything too seriously until it either gets classified, or the potential track just becomes to obvious to question.

Once it gets strong enough to classify, the GFS will nail down the 4 and 5 day forecasts to within a few miles on the center line, and about +/- 6 hours in time, as it usually does.
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12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Link
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1637. icmoore
oops sorry :)
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I wouldn't live by every model run - take each model and see if there are patterns, etc. But one model run is meaningless and shouldn't be hyped because the next one could have a completely different outcome unless you are seeing a pattern.

The overall pattern of the models have shifted west over the past few days... that's the current take away. It is still WAY TOO FAR out to determine where 94L might ever make landfall.

Besides, it hasn't even developed yet and the way it looks this morning, it won't be developing today. Until we get a storm, these models are worth a whole lot.
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Thoughts from the NHC @ 72hrs.

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Quoting Dakster:
With the potential size of 94l it could take a little more time to spin up.
This could be a large hurricane.


Mid-level and low-level are nowhere near stacked right now, and upper level sucks.

It needs to get about another 5 degrees west to find good upper level features...and maybe drift another half-degree north.
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1633. Dakster
With the potential size of 94l it could take a little more time to spin up.
This could be a large hurricane.
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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like its going to be a rainy and stormy day all around the gulf coast today..


It woke me up!
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Gustav / Ivan all over again?




Lord, I hope not... I brought up Ivan to my wife yesterday when we were discussing the wave. I remember Ivan too well, and I really have no desire to go through that type of storm again.
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1000mb



990mb



970mb



950mb



940mb



Below 940mb




Maybe...but then again, no way it would get that strong so fast, so it would already be past the weakness before it reached that intensity...
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1629. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:


Good morning Largo and everyone. We got almost 2" of rain out of the storms yesterday in Madeira Beach and it was the first in a while. There has been a lot of rain around lately but it was going north and south of us. It looks like a similar setup today but I don't see nearly as much rain in the Gulf yet.
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More rain in Pensacola this morning. I think that it is now 14 out of the last 15 days we have had rain! Loving it!
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a pleasant good morning, levi or Dr. Jeff is it possible that the monsoonal circulation to the west of 94L trying to develop based on early morning visible sat images it does seem to have a spin within its axis

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Quoting Chicklit:
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...GUARDED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N57W...


Yeah.

A casual look at the CIMMS map reveals this storm is not moving any farther north any time soon.

Maybe a window will open up in like 4 days or so, but for right now no way.

Even category 4 would not break through that...
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1625. scott39
Quoting RTSplayer:


There's only two GFS ensemble members that totally miss the mainland of North America now.

Everything else either hits the East Coast, or goes through the Caribbean, with the consensus track ending right in the same route as Gustav, Camille, Ivan, and a few other baddies.

This is not a good scenario if the storm actually develops. In fact, it's probably a terrible scenario, because the Gulf has insane maximum potential this year. Some of the highest values I've ever seen.
We are getting closer to fall, where the troughs will start having more of an influence on the steering of TCs. I said a month ago that weak TDs or TSs would track across the Atlantic and develope more once farther W closer to land. I believe there will be more than one major hurricane to strike land. Unfortunately the masses will have less time to evacuate due to majors developing rapidly closer to land.
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BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...GUARDED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N57W...
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1623. LargoFl
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1622. LargoFl
bouy report right near 94L.............Model: AP19
Initialized: Aug. 19, 2012 0:00 Z
Hour: 18 (forecast position for 8/19 18Z)
Model Type: Late Cycle
(released 6 hours after initializaton date)
Coordinates: 14.8N 37.2W
Wind Speed: 22 kts (25 mph)
MSLP: 1011 mb
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Link to a webcam on Santa Maria Island Azores. Notice all the boats docked. Could be in for some gusty weather soon.
Link
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Morning All. A lil closer today.

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1619. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN THE GULF WILL
SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE COAST AND FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON INLAND. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
OF STORMS OFF THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING FROM TAMPA
BAY NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
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1618. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BREVARD COUNTY COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...AND MANY STORMS WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS THEY NEAR THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND OTHER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

FLORIDA IS THE LIGHTNING CAPITAL OF NORTH AMERICA. IF SKIES THREATEN
OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT RETURN OUTDOORS
UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE FINAL CLAP OF THUNDER.
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1617. scott39
Quoting RTSplayer:


Scott39:

IN all likelihood, Gordon is going to get upgraded in post-season analysis.
It was close, but Gordon is now weakening. Its possible i suppose.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.



There's only two GFS ensemble members that totally miss the mainland of North America now.

Everything else either hits the East Coast, or goes through the Caribbean, with the consensus track ending right in the same route as Gustav, Camille, Ivan, and a few other baddies.

This is not a good scenario if the storm actually develops. In fact, it's probably a terrible scenario, because the Gulf has insane maximum potential this year. Some of the highest values I've ever seen.
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Keep in mind guys that models have trends. In 94l's case, they're trending to the west and 94l is only about halfway across the basin, so we can only expect that they will continue trending west for the time being.

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1614. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLOODING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM DIPS UNUSUALLY FAR
SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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1613. LargoFl
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1612. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
Gustav / Ivan all over again?


oh boy
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Quoting scott39:
Good morning, The common theme this season is dust from Africa. I dont look for TCs to develope into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. The Western Caribbean,GOM and the East coast are where your going to see TCs possibly develope into Major Hurricanes. It looks like that 94L is not going to slow down until its more into the Caribbean. It also looks like that the models continue to bring it father W. Timing of its fast movement and the trough, will determine if it strikes the East Coast, somewhere on the Gulf Coast or not at all. Considering that Mexico has been a target over the past few seasons, I definitely at this point would not take them off the list. It looks less likely that the Islands will be dealing with a Major Hurricane.


Scott39:

IN all likelihood, Gordon is going to get upgraded in post-season analysis.
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1610. LargoFl
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This is a summary of the two waves closer to the Antilles from the NHC report at 8 a.m.:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE ERN/CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 34W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL GYRE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 31W-38W...WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE REGION ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 KT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N44W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS LIMITED DUE TO A LARGE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE DISCUSSED BELOW.

Agree Taz. The NHC says still moving west. Scott makes a good point to keep in mind that neither of these waves has passed the 50-60W point yet. This is when KmanIslander will probably step in and be able to tell us where it will go lol.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.




No mode runs are showing 94L going out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Gustav / Ivan all over again?


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I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.

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1605. LargoFl
There is a flash flood warning for the Austin Texas area also.............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT

* AT 758 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLOODING OVER EASTERN DURHAM
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF DURHAM SINCE 630 AM.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE PARKWOOD...GORMAN AND
BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER CAN CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUP TRUCKS. TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
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