July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 705 - 655

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting floridaboy14:
dry air hurting 94L not surprised. wont become a ts until further west


it really isnt though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Latest
(click to enlarge)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm saying 60% for the next 48 hours, but 80% of this developing for the next 72 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
dry air hurting 94L not surprised. wont become a ts until further west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
701. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back for a sec, but I've looked over the 18z GFS run and it appears to be a little suspect. Look at what it develops behind 94L, the system at 40W at 162 hours for example. None of the other models are showing this and the last run of the GFS also wasn't showing this. I suspect this run is having *some* convective feedback IMO. If the 00z run has it (which, just to make things difficult it probably won't) then watch out for a trend.

Also worth nothing I believe the 12z ECMWF had a bad initialization. Look at where the vortmax is located at current position, well to the south of the actual vort max. Basically, it's showing two lows competing against each other that kills it. This appears suspect to me as well.


We might as well wait until 94L develops, that would give the models a better initialization therefore a more precise track. And at the rate 94L is organizing, by tomorrow afternoon we should have a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, what is 94L's current location?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Consolidating.


yup next 48 should see deveopment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is very near or at TD status!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Teleconnection?




Appears so Nrt!
Glad you posted that, was curious how some of the FL totals compared to LA...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... didn't yesterday's 18Z also have a bad initialization?


The 18z runs and the 12z runs yesterday seemed to have a good handle on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L will probably be bumped to 70%,JMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:

Consolidating.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The NHC is smart enough to know that one model run =/= trend. They'll probably raise it to 60%.

Patience, we're in the time of year that storms do develop out there. I see no reason as to why, other than some dry air, 94L won't develop. Even so, look at Gordon. It as 93L punched through the entire Saharan Air Layer and still developed.

I'm with you, I see this thing developing. Personally I don't think dry air will even be that big of an issue, its forward speed will probably be its only problem... However it's not impossible the NHC keeps it at 50%, especially if one of the real conservative forecasters writes the TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm convinced that at least one NHC / TAFB regular is also a member of this blog.... but that's just my feeling... [sigh] no proof....

LOL



IS ANYONE HERE WORKING FOR THE NHC????? SPEAK TO US...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back for a sec, but I've looked over the 18z GFS run and it appears to be a little suspect. Look at what it develops behind 94L, the system at 40W at 162 hours for example. None of the other models are showing this and the last run of the GFS also wasn't showing this. I suspect this run is having *some* convective feedback IMO. If the 00z run has it (which, just to make things difficult it probably won't) then watch out for a trend.

Also worth nothing I believe the 12z ECMWF had a bad initialization. Look at where the vortmax is located at current position, well to the south of the actual vort max. Basically, it's showing two lows competing against each other that kills it. This appears suspect to me as well.
Hmmm... didn't yesterday's 18Z also have a bad initialization?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
Quoting Grothar:


Please, this blog is no place for logic.

ROFLMBO

I'll leave you with it my friend.
Time to light the grill!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Current shear map. Looks pretty unfavorable, but apparently it will decrease...



Actually has a very nice anticyclone over it ventilating it from the shear.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The NHC won't like the fact that models aren't as enthusiastic as earlier. I don't see more than 60%.


The NHC is smart enough to know that one model run =/= trend. They'll probably raise it to 60% but I could see them going with 50%.

Patience, we're in the time of year that storms do develop out there. I see no reason as to why, other than some dry air, 94L won't develop. Even so, look at Gordon. It as 93L punched through the entire Saharan Air Layer and still developed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
rescueguy: My thoughts turn to how well FEMA will respond to a Major Hurricane hitting a heavily populated area....
...Local governments I am not so worried about, it's the Federal Response that has me concerned.


True... the local governments can always be depended upon...
...to sit on their heinies and scream "WHY AREN'T THE FEDS HELPING US?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


we can say the NHC doesn't bother to read our blog...
I'm convinced that at least one NHC / TAFB regular is also a member of this blog.... but that's just my feeling... [sigh] no proof....

LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
684. VR46L
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's because there's nothing to talk about.


Well there always which is the worst model? or do you discount this 18z due to the previous consistency? or there is the storm live in the ocean? or the bones of Helena that are to stick around for quite a while?
Personally Not keen on seeing DOOMcane frequently on a model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Methurricanes:
you only see the larger islands on the Satilite, Populated islands spread southeastward for a couple Hundred Miles.


It looked to me he was a bit further north as opposed to straight easterly track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Meanwhile in other wet weather news... soggy SE Louisiana continues to get soggier... with more very much unneeded hvy rainfall ongoing, as 2nd wave tstms have arrived... No end in sight to the rain train for us.

In fact, mark it today Aug 18 2012 - My year to date amount just met and exceeded the normal total yearly average of 62.25" (new climo avg, previous was 63.67") during the 5 PM hour... Had 2.64" from the midday storms to bring the YTD amt to 61.94"... Now the 2nd batch rain has dropped another 1.5" plus, will update totals thru midnight later...

With yet over 4 months to go, I'm estimating a yearly total in range of 85-90" for 2012, conservatively, and may go higher considering El Nino's effect on N Gulf region... A top 5 wettest year, perhaps could challenge 1991's incredible totals, which locally ranged between 101.87" to 121.93"...

Only wish those that need it, could... well, you know.


Teleconnection?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Ines skirt Puerto Rico as a Category five....
The Bahamas got lucky with Inez... that was one bad lady all the way...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
Current shear map. Looks pretty unfavorable, but apparently it will decrease...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back for a sec, but I've looked over the 18z GFS run and it appears to be a little suspect. Look at what it develops behind 94L, the system at 40W at 162 hours for example. None of the other models are showing this and the last run of the GFS also wasn't showing this. I suspect this run is having *some* convective feedback IMO. If the 00z run has it weak (which, just to make things difficult it probably will) then watch out for a trend.

Also worth nothing I believe the 12z ECMWF had a bad initialization. Look at where the vortmax is located at current position, well to the south of the actual vort max. Basically, it's showing two lows competing against each other that kills it. This appears suspect to me as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 2004 + 2005 seasons were unbelievable. It was like, DISASTER, DISASTER, DISASTER. But the storms in the past several years have been different. Cat 2's, 1's, or weakening before landfall (excluding Ike). I feel like we haven't really had a huge scare recently, with a cat 4 or higher threatening our coastline. Ivan, Rita, Katrina, Dennis, all really were crisis storms, with mass exoduses and such. I'm not trying to be an alarmist, but I would keep an eye out for this situation again soon, whether it be from soon to be Isaac, a storm later this year or even next year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't I and J used to be the same thing back in Roman times?


Yes, that is why I was a little confvsed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
i wounder if this year TD 10 when we get it will be name this year


it seem like in years pass when the TD # gets too 10 it seems too not like geting a name
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting Grothar:
Blob alert coming soon.

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It may be reforming more north and that could have big implications down the road.


It may or may not, the ridge to the north is strong so it could push the system to the WSW for a bit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The NHC won't like the fact that models aren't as enthusiastic as earlier. I don't see more than 60%.
I agree with your number, but more because of Dmin than because of the models. IIRC, the 'reliable' models all show some kind of development to NS status before the islands...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
i think the GFS 18z run is hanging a lot on the forward speed of 94
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not buying the south track. I think 94L will make it to strong tropical storm status/hurricane status and pass over the NE Caribbean in a week or so.


It may be reforming more north and that could have big implications down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't know a thing about it... lol... I'll have to ask my mom what she remembers about it.


sure...let me...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The NHC won't like the fact that models aren't as enthusiastic as earlier. I don't see more than 60%.


we can say the NHC doesn't bother to read our blog...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's silly for me to ask you were alive back then to know it...
Didn't know a thing about it... lol... I'll have to ask my mom what she remembers about it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
Gfs has 1 bad run no big deal future Isaac is coming prepare now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
80% is way too high right now



how evere i do think at lest 60 or 70% is more likey


all it has to do is detach from the vorticity lobes, is pretty strong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not 1966?



"Bad" 18Z run suggests it dissipates between Cuba and Jamaica...
Ines skirt Puerto Rico as a Category five....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile in other wet weather news... soggy SE Louisiana continues to get soggier... with more very much unneeded hvy rainfall ongoing, as 2nd wave tstms have arrived... No end in sight to the rain train for us.

In fact, mark it today Aug 18 2012 - My year to date amount just met and exceeded the normal total yearly average of 62.25" (new climo avg, previous was 63.67") during the 5 PM hour... Had 2.64" from the midday storms to bring the YTD amt to 61.94"... Now the 2nd batch rain has dropped another 1.5" plus, will update totals thru midnight later...

With yet over 4 months to go, I'm estimating a yearly total in range of 85-90" for 2012, conservatively, and may go higher considering El Nino's effect on N Gulf region... A top 5 wettest year, perhaps could challenge 1991's incredible totals, which locally ranged between 101.87" to 121.93"...

Only wish those that need it, could... well, you know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
So I could make a case that all the really bad J storms are also I storms???

;o)


yes...see post 647.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
80% is way too high right now



how evere i do think at lest 60 or 70% is more likey
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256

NHC BEGAN THE YELLOW CIRCLE IN CENTRAL AFRICA FOR THIS ONE..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I was told by some to be raised to 80%... but NHC has the last word

The NHC won't like the fact that models aren't as enthusiastic as earlier. I don't see more than 60%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That's right...I know Latin. Just like Julius was Iulius...kinda weird or even Jesus-Iesus
So I could make a case that all the really bad J storms are also I storms???

;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

94L will likely either stay at 50% or go to 60%. They probably won't mention the second wave but if it maintains itself they may circle it at 2AM.


I was told by some to be raised to 80%... but NHC has the last word
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

94L will likely either stay at 50% or go to 60%. They probably won't mention the second wave but if it maintains itself they may circle it at 2AM.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256

Viewing: 705 - 655

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.