July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
..GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


ALMOST THERE!!!



Can we all say it?

The Joes beat the Pros for sure on this one...

Joes: 1
Pros: 0
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
now they mention TD in the discussion...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HELENE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. yoboi
Quoting LargoFl:
we had almost the same here but suns out and the skies have almost turned blue..alot more coming tomorrow they say...the lake in the park near me went up almost 2 feet whew


i think more rain for tomm in la looking by whats still in cen texas....had to rain during the weekend blaaaaaaaaa..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2346
60%!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT22 KNHC 182031
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
2100 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 98.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 98.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 99.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z HWRF likes 94L somewhat


NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 18

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -32.00 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 3.0 LONG: -32.30 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -32.70 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 9.0 LONG: -33.30 LAT: 13.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -33.90 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 15.0 LONG: -34.40 LAT: 13.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -35.10 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 21.0 LONG: -35.90 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -36.70 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 27.0 LONG: -37.50 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -38.30 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 33.0 LONG: -39.20 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -39.90 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 39.0 LONG: -40.60 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -41.40 LAT: 15.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 45.0 LONG: -42.20 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -43.10 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 51.0 LONG: -43.90 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -44.90 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 57.0 LONG: -45.80 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -46.70 LAT: 15.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 63.0 LONG: -47.40 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -48.20 LAT: 14.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 69.0 LONG: -49.10 LAT: 14.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -49.90 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 75.0 LONG: -50.70 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -51.40 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 81.0 LONG: -52.20 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -53.00 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 87.0 LONG: -53.60 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -54.40 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 93.0 LONG: -55.10 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -55.80 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 99.0 LONG: -56.60 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -57.30 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 105.0 LONG: -58.00 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -58.60 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 111.0 LONG: -59.40 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -60.10 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 117.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -61.40 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -62.10 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -62.70 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



3.5 inches today in swla and still raining...


Does the sugarcane like all that rain or is it too much?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Code red!.I repeat code red.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17070
Gordon's eye looks angry.



So close to becoming a major hurricane!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


yes it is
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 660
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HELENE...LOCATED INLAND JUST NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN


for real?


that's not it...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting weatherh98:


yes it is
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 660
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HELENE...LOCATED INLAND JUST NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN


for real?





thats old
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFDL not impressed with 94L, dissipates at 48 hours:


HOUR: .0 LONG: -32.37 LAT: 13.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 17.57
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -33.08 LAT: 13.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.68
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -34.17 LAT: 13.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -35.50 LAT: 13.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.95
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -36.73 LAT: 13.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.43
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -38.52 LAT: 14.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.17
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -40.25 LAT: 14.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.38
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -42.30 LAT: 14.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -44.21 LAT: 14.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.33


Isn't this the first run from the GFDL for 94L? I haven't seen any other runs for it yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gro -

Thanks Bud... Do you still have the original, signed Mayan Calendar handy? I would love to take a look at it. Make sure that we really are not going to end on 12-21-12...


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Quoting Tazmanian:




the map have not updated the new two is not out


.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Really only the Miami area in South Florida, on the other coast we have:




Yes, realized quite a contrast over the peninsula... The numbers I provided are from one of my two cocorah gauges, official records here got screwed when closed the wx station June 2011.. only recently has another gauge or station been implemented, and I need to check with state climatologist Barry Keim for source details.

Oh, BTW on teleconnections and such... I well remember after Betsy, Andrew, and Katrina hit S Fl also slammed me over here, lol... Thanks, but no thanks!!!
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HELENE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

TXZ198-199-212-213-182345-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-GRIMES TX-
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAGNOLIA...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
PINEHURST...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF MOTHBALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...CHATEAU WOODS...STAGECOACH...WOODLOCH AND
TODD MISSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UP TO 60! just 10% up


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HELENE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Felix2007:
STILL 50%, GORDON 110MPH





the map have not updated the new two is not out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
It would be smart to wait for the 00Z run to see if this is in fact is a trend. The 18Z and 6Z are notorious for dropping or having convective feedback due to them being extrapolated. There seems to be some poor initialization as well so we should just wait and see if the 00Z cleans this up and has the same results. Also have to remember that the models get a much better handle on these systems once they actually form vs them being blobs. Anything past 5 days can normally be thrown out because a lot can change after that. I'm sure many of us can cite numerous systems that did the opposite of what we thought they would do in spite of the models.

Good thing is that we have time to watch this one and get a better grasp on how or where it might go. Cyclogenesis is both a magnificent and nerve wrecking science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Let the blob watching commence.

Gro - Can you pass the salt for the popcorn?


Fer sure! This is more exciting than the chariot race in Ben Hur. The actual one was better than the movie.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Only other trend I found interesting in the model guidance, besides the much weaker system, was the shift in the 18UTC GFS ensembles toward the end of their track to the right, more between the US and Bermuda than along the US Coastline.

I'm confident that 94L will be a threat strength wise, we just have to hope for a stronger weakness, and I'll want to see a consistent trend in the ensemble guidance towards a recurve storm before I buy this 18UTC shift.

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. yoboi
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I have to respectfully disagree. When Rita hit us this area all came together. By the time FEMA arrived we had re-rescued the Katrina refugees here, restaurants had called for grills to be brought to them, each a different meal, and free food for all. People gave out their addresses if they had wells for those who didn't, etc.


i agree in swla everyone was nice for a few months....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2346
STILL 50%, GORDON 110MPH

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Quoting Grothar:


It is already get that "coma" shape to it.

yes starting to look nice now
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It is already get that "coma" shape to it.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
..GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


ALMOST THERE!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Dakster:


Let the blob watching commence.

Gro - Can you pass the salt for the popcorn?


Shoot! He lived during the salt trade!
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18Z GFDL not impressed with 94L, dissipates at 48 hours:


HOUR: .0 LONG: -32.37 LAT: 13.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 17.57
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -33.08 LAT: 13.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.68
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -34.17 LAT: 13.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -35.50 LAT: 13.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.95
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -36.73 LAT: 13.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.43
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -38.52 LAT: 14.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.17
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -40.25 LAT: 14.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.38
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -42.30 LAT: 14.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -44.21 LAT: 14.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.33
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One year ago at this time (eventually became Tropical Storm Harvey):
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Quoting Grothar:
WE NOW HAVE A BLOB.

The NHC will have to take notice now. And yes, they read this blog all the time.




Let the blob watching commence.

Gro - Can you pass the salt for the popcorn?
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Quoting Grothar:
WE NOW HAVE A BLOB.

The NHC will have to take notice now. And yes, they read this blog all the time.




they read the blog more than dr m
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Quoting yoboi:



3.5 inches today in swla and still raining...
we had almost the same here but suns out and the skies have almost turned blue..alot more coming tomorrow they say...the lake in the park near me went up almost 2 feet whew
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Good Evening Everyone!

Popped in for a quick visit before enjoying a nice Saturday evening BBQ.

Ultimately, I think the improved vorticity at 850 and 700mb plus improved look on satellite/TPW loops indicates that the NHC will bump to 60-70% as others suggested.

While the satellite does show a fair amount of dusty SAL air around the northern part of 94L, the large pouch of moisture, strong vorticity, and favorable SSTs in it's path signal development and then strengthening.

Not sure what the GFS and ECMWF are up to, but at least we should start having some hurricane models run soon, and these should do a better job of handling some of the internal structure issues than the lower resolution global models.

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

The Epac taking its nap after a lot of storms...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
On the 18Z 94L, shear picked up at the 156 hour point


shr_mag 15 10 8 9 5 6 10 12 9 6 8 7 10 8 7 14 10 33 27
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks



but that was done at the 18z update so it could be a little more N and W by now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
WE NOW HAVE A BLOB.

The NHC will have to take notice now. And yes, they read this blog all the time.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
12z NOGAPS:


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7831
Quoting Tazmanian:


here is 94L last no location



AL, 94, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB
Thanks
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Quoting aspectre:
rescueguy: My thoughts turn to how well FEMA will respond to a Major Hurricane hitting a heavily populated area....
...Local governments I am not so worried about, it's the Federal Response that has me concerned.


True... the local governments can always be depended upon...
...to sit on their heinies and scream "WHY AREN'T THE FEDS HELPING US?"


I have to respectfully disagree. When Rita hit us this area all came together. By the time FEMA arrived we had re-rescued the Katrina refugees here, restaurants had called for grills to be brought to them, each a different meal, and free food for all. People gave out their addresses if they had wells for those who didn't, etc.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
94L is very near or at TD status!
we really wont know til a plane goes in or a ship reports for sure
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm saying 60% for the next 48 hours, but 80% of this developing for the next 72 hours.


I agree, due to the dry air right now.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
94L is very near or at TD status!
Quoting stormpetrol:
94L will probably be bumped to 70%,JMO.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The NHC won't like the fact that models aren't as enthusiastic as earlier. I don't see more than 60%.



could you three read and agree with each other???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey, what is 94L's current location?


here is 94L last no location



AL, 94, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Appears so Nrt!
Glad you posted that, was curious how some of the FL totals compared to LA...


Really only the Miami area in South Florida, on the other coast we have:


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Quoting floridaboy14:
dry air hurting 94L not surprised. wont become a ts until further west


it really isnt though
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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