July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 805 - 755

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting FLASPOTTER:
94L is different then just about all the disturbances that came off of Africa there seems to be no big wind shear in its path thoughts?
well to its north it has the SAL which is affecting it..we'll see tomorrow how it is
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
I think Gordon is within 5mph of it's theoretical maximum.

The theory could be wrong, however, and it appears to be a small circulation, so it may violate the assumptions of the map.

I don't THINK it will go beyond 115 to 120mph sustained, because by 6 hours from now at the speed it's moving, it should start hitting cooler water...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
It will be one for the record books if Gordon hits at Cat 2 or higher. Nothing greater than a Cat 1 has hit the Azores.

(According to Wikipedia)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
801. SLU
Hmmm .. the HWRF and GFDL not all that excited about 94L. What if the EURO turns out to the right?

I suspect 94L's higher latitude could limit rapid intensification because of cooler SSTs and dry air ingestion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txwcc:


Luckily though, they'll be on the clean side of the storm.


On the other hand, have the Azores ever dealt with anything like this in strength.

Also, strength isn't all of the story with Damage. Irene was only around a strong Tropical Storm for much of the time when it hit the US, and it caused $15.6 Billion in Damage.

I could see this being bad enough for the Azores to require retirement. Which would be 18 years overdue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 34:12:42 N Lon : 35:16:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

120 MPH!
..wow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
94L is different then just about all the disturbances that came off of Africa there seems to be no big wind shear in its path thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. JLPR2
Quoting ncstorm:
long long long way out but the CFS model in the first week of september..



DOOM!
Definitely doom.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8697
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 34:12:42 N Lon : 35:16:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

120 MPH!
is this right?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
795. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at the one behind.


Yes, that one is looking nice and ridding lower.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8697
Quoting Grothar:


See I declare a blob and the NHC brings it up 60%. Maybe before the next advisory I'll declare a Massive blob.
LOL do it lets see what happens hahaha
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
long long long way out but the CFS model in the first week of september..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
The key to Gordon reaching 100kts lies in what Dvorak says...any minute now. T5.5 we're likely gold, confirmed by an ATCF update not much later.

The eye is slightly colder than earlier, so if warms back up, we should be golden. Big if though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1 mph away! I swear, I'm going to be pissed if it stops intensifying right now.



Don't look at NOAA ADT, specifically the flags......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HrDelta:


The Azores are in deep, deep trouble.

I'm beginning to think that this may be Gordon's last time. The Azores are probably not prepared for a storm with 100+ mph winds. This will suck.

Anybody think it will be declared Major at 9pm?


why at 9 PM?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting LargoFl:
yes now at 60%, wonder what it will be at the 8am tomorrow


See I declare a blob and the NHC brings it up 60%. Maybe before the next advisory I'll declare a Massive blob.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1 mph away! I swear, I'm going to be pissed if it stops intensifying right now.



If this keeps the kind of structure it had 2 hours ago on microwave imagery, it's going to do some serious damage when it passes the eastern Azores. It's going to be almost a direct hit.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
94L is clearing the way for the wave be hid it so may be the wave be hid it wont have that marh dry hear and dust that 94L has well somewhat
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting JLPR2:


The low is just now emerging from the African continent, maybe it will get mentioned tomorrow morning.



And look at the one behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The key to Gordon reaching 100kts lies in what Dvorak says...any minute now. T5.5 we're likely gold, confirmed by an ATCF update not much later.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting osuwxguynew:



Interesting, thanks for posting. Wasn't sure if they started on the 18UTC or were going to start on the 00UTC.

Maybe there was some issue with the vortex at initialization? I just don't see such a powerful 700/850 vort max, in the low shear environment starting tomorrow for the next 5 days leading to development...


Does appear the "bogus" storm spun-up in the model at initialization was weak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1 mph away! I swear, I'm going to be pissed if it stops intensifying right now.



Remember Bud in the Epac earlier this year? the same thing...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting HrDelta:


The Azores are in deep, deep trouble.

I'm beginning to think that this may be Gordon's last time. The Azores are probably not prepared for a storm with 100+ mph winds. This will suck.

Anybody think it will be declared Major at 9pm?
i dunno, those islands get those horrific winter storms, and stuck way out there im sure they know what to do and when
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looking very good under there. If he can hold on to his current organization, he definitely has a shot to be classified as a major category 3.



someone said something about a weak southern eyewall...look at it now...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting JLPR2:


The low is just now emerging from the African continent, maybe it will get mentioned tomorrow morning.




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1 mph away! I swear, I'm going to be pissed if it stops intensifying right now.




there be more storms too track
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
777. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
they did not say any thing about the wave be hid 94L


The low is just now emerging from the African continent, maybe it will get mentioned tomorrow morning.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8697
Quoting Clearwater1:
They, the NHC, are the experts, so they must be looking at a lot of other dynamics, just not the models, etc gfs. So the fat lady has not sung as of yet, for 94. The swan song, has not been played, the nail is not in the coffin. I'm trying to get all these types of sayings out of the way, in advance, should things really change.
yes we have almost a week ahead with this storm, way too early to tell anything, gee this morning the blog was going nuts lol..way too early for that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1 mph away! I swear, I'm going to be pissed if it stops intensifying right now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:



Can we all say it?

The Joes beat the Pros for sure on this one...

Joes: 1
Pros: 0


The Azores are in deep, deep trouble.

I'm beginning to think that this may be Gordon's last time. The Azores are probably not prepared for a storm with 100+ mph winds. This will suck.

Anybody think it will be declared Major at 9pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
They, the NHC, are the experts, so they must be looking at a lot of other dynamics, just not the models, etc gfs. So the fat lady has not sung as of yet, for 94. The swan song, has not been played, the nail is not in the coffin. I'm trying to get all these types of sayings out of the way, in advance, should things really change.



yeahhh, I was getting lost tying to understand what you were saying
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
they did not say any thing about the wave be hid 94L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
770. JLPR2
5mph shy of major status...

Ah, so close!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8697
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
now they mention TD in the discussion...
They, the NHC, are the experts, so they must be looking at a lot of other dynamics, just not the models, etc gfs. So the fat lady has not sung as of yet, for 94. The swan song, has not been played, the nail is not in the coffin. I'm trying to get all these types of sayings out of the way, in advance, should things really change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any new UW -CMISS info?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting BahaHurican:
Listen to what the man said... [or woman, as may be...]


That person didn't write anything new. Too many public safety announcers on this blog. Of course the FL Panhandle will get hit again, just like the entire Eastern seaboard and the Gulf coast...eventually. If people are stupid enough to hang around when the calamity of a storm is on their doorstep, that's their own fault and nobody here can change their minds because it's doubtful they even view this blog.

I can remotely understand those types of statements, board up your house and move inland when a storm is threatening but there's nothing tropical anywhere near the panhandle of Florida right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Isn't this the first run from the GFDL for 94L? I haven't seen any other runs for it yet.


Yes, first cycle for the cyclone specific models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Major hurricane seems imminent out of Gordon.People in the Azores going to get whacked.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Looking very good under there. If he can hold on to his current organization, he definitely has a shot to be classified as a major category 3.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Gordon doesn't become a major hurricane next update then it will be in the post-season analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so dumb to know Gordon is ONE MPH away from major hurricane status
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting yoboi:


i think more rain for tomm in la looking by whats still in cen texas....had to rain during the weekend blaaaaaaaaa..
yes they are saying 5 and a half inches or more for you guys..going to be alot of local flooding..stay safe over there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
760. JLPR2
Quoting Felix2007:
60%!!!


Knew it, 70% was just too much for the conservative NHC. :P

Though with the models now backing up a little, they might just be playing it safe.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8697
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Gordon's eye looks angry.



So close to becoming a major hurricane!
Pretty storm for the NE atl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well they up it to 60 percent

we should get a T.C.F.A after midnight if conditions stay the smae or improve slighly with sat presentation and a good run of the models 00z

by 2 am it will be heading into the dmax phase as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFDL not impressed with 94L, dissipates at 48 hours:


HOUR: .0 LONG: -32.37 LAT: 13.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 17.57
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -33.08 LAT: 13.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.68
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -34.17 LAT: 13.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -35.50 LAT: 13.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.95
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -36.73 LAT: 13.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.43
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -38.52 LAT: 14.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.17
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -40.25 LAT: 14.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.38
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -42.30 LAT: 14.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -44.21 LAT: 14.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.33



Interesting, thanks for posting. Wasn't sure if they started on the 18UTC or were going to start on the 00UTC.

Maybe there was some issue with the vortex at initialization? I just don't see such a powerful 700/850 vort max, in the low shear environment starting tomorrow for the next 5 days not leading to development...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
now they mention TD in the discussion...
yes now at 60%, wonder what it will be at the 8am tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
..GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 35.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


ALMOST THERE!!!



Can we all say it?

The Joes beat the Pros for sure on this one...

Joes: 1
Pros: 0
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

Viewing: 805 - 755

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
76 °F
Mostly Cloudy