July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe they are crazy....what time frame?


I didn't see it a friend told me. Idk
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.
........ OK BUBBA!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
Quoting SLU:
94L over 27C waters



What's with the one tiny circle of cool water in the eastern Caribbean?
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What is the difference between a Prawn and a Shrimp?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting lottotexas:
and WHO say that?


LOL Does Shrimp Lo Mein count?
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and pickled shrimp
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hmmmm...haven't heard anything about that. The CMC has something, maybe Helene's remnants, crawling up the coast to the TX/LA border. The FIM9 model had the same storm I'm assuming taking a straight path to around Galveston. But that's all I heard.


Ok maybe so. I'm not home can't catch the news. So I turn to the trusty blog.
thanks guys
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948. SLU
94L over 27C waters

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4838
Quoting yoboi:


and shrimp gumbo...

and Jumbo Shrimp.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
Latest TCHP: This is a high as it gets in the Atlantic, W-caribbean and Gulf!

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Quoting yoboi:



when they say that???
and WHO say that?
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944. yoboi
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.


and shrimp gumbo...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
Quoting Grothar:


Ok, Bubba!


Man! You're fast. :P
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Quoting LargoFl:
..nothing by us..maybe they said a tropical storm by texas..coming to florida?..a model earlier had something like that

Lol maybe my friend got it backwards. Idk
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Quoting Articuno:
Are the people in the chatbox right now fake?..icanttell

IDK the answer could somebody tell?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
Quoting SLU:
SHIPS backs down....

933

WHXX01 KWBC 190045

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0045 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0000 120819 1200 120820 0000 120820 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 32.6W 15.1N 35.9W 15.9N 39.5W 16.6N 43.6W

BAMD 14.2N 32.6W 14.7N 35.5W 15.2N 38.3W 15.7N 40.9W

BAMM 14.2N 32.6W 15.1N 35.8W 15.8N 39.1W 16.5N 42.6W

LBAR 14.2N 32.6W 14.9N 36.1W 15.5N 39.7W 16.2N 43.5W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0000 120822 0000 120823 0000 120824 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.3N 48.0W 18.1N 57.3W 18.6N 66.5W 18.2N 74.5W

BAMD 16.1N 43.7W 16.6N 49.1W 16.3N 53.6W 15.3N 55.5W

BAMM 17.3N 46.4W 18.3N 54.4W 19.1N 62.5W 20.3N 69.4W

LBAR 16.9N 47.0W 17.8N 54.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS

DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 28.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 25.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN



It's run off the 18z GFS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.


Bubba?
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18z HWRF
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.


Ok, Bubba!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25304
Quoting yoboi:



when they say that???

My friend just called me.said 13 said models bring a TS to Houston at the end of this week
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935. SLU
SHIPS backs down....

933

WHXX01 KWBC 190045

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0045 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0000 120819 1200 120820 0000 120820 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 32.6W 15.1N 35.9W 15.9N 39.5W 16.6N 43.6W

BAMD 14.2N 32.6W 14.7N 35.5W 15.2N 38.3W 15.7N 40.9W

BAMM 14.2N 32.6W 15.1N 35.8W 15.8N 39.1W 16.5N 42.6W

LBAR 14.2N 32.6W 14.9N 36.1W 15.5N 39.7W 16.2N 43.5W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0000 120822 0000 120823 0000 120824 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.3N 48.0W 18.1N 57.3W 18.6N 66.5W 18.2N 74.5W

BAMD 16.1N 43.7W 16.6N 49.1W 16.3N 53.6W 15.3N 55.5W

BAMM 17.3N 46.4W 18.3N 54.4W 19.1N 62.5W 20.3N 69.4W

LBAR 16.9N 47.0W 17.8N 54.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS

DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 28.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 25.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4838
934. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



that is not a major. and it dos not have 105mph winds it has 110mph winds



112 to be exact...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
Just checking in for a second,

I am getting very concerned for the Azores islands. Gordon's structure is very conducive for maintaining its Category 2 intensity through cooler waters and a less unstable atmosphere. It has a large eye with a strong eyewall and is a pretty shallow system (as many are at this latitude). Weakening is going to take longer to occur than usual under the conditions that it is encountering. If I were in the southeastern Azores, I would prepare for a high-end Category 1 to low-end Category 2 hurricane on Sunday night thru Monday.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I like shrimp


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.
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Quoting LPStormspotter:
Local news in Houston says maybe tropical storm off coast of Fl coming towards Houston. But no mention here. Anyone know?


maybe they are crazy....what time frame?
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930. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:
The 00z just came in

14.2N 33.2W Definitely a WNW motion over the last six hours.



i thought it wobbled....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
929. VR46L
Quoting yoboi:


it might produce rain for ya....


LOL .think I get enough rain already.... but he aint coming near me ...unless there is a drastic change of course ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Local news in Houston says maybe tropical storm off coast of Fl coming towards Houston. But no mention here. Anyone know?


Hmmmm...haven't heard anything about that. The CMC has something, maybe Helene's remnants, crawling up the coast to the TX/LA border. The FIM9 model had the same storm I'm assuming taking a straight path to around Galveston. But that's all I heard.
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Latest TCHP:

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...............no tropical storm here by florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Local news in Houston says maybe tropical storm off coast of Fl coming towards Houston. But no mention here. Anyone know?
..nothing by us..maybe they said a tropical storm by texas..coming to florida?..a model earlier had something like that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
924. yoboi
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Local news in Houston says maybe tropical storm off coast of Fl coming towards Houston. But no mention here. Anyone know?



when they say that???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
Quoting Thing342:
I belive that is for the 8pm update. I saw that at about 7:30.


no,, it came out at 8:29 pm EDT
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am sorry but this is a major. I find it ridiculous it still has 105 MPH on it.


bravo..estoy de acuerdo con usted.. pero es 110 mph
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AL, 08, 2012081900, , BEST, 0, 343N, 350W, 95, 965, HU,

nooo!
I belive that is for the 8pm update. I saw that at about 7:30.
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Quoting LargoFl:
sure has a nice eye
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am sorry but this is a major. I find it ridiculous it still has 105 MPH on it.



that is not a major. and it dos not have 105mph winds it has 110mph winds
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114705
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am sorry but this is a major. I find it ridiculous it still has 105 MPH on it.

It's actually 110.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
Local news in Houston says maybe tropical storm off coast of Fl coming towards Houston. But no mention here. Anyone know?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Are the people in the chatbox right now fake?..icanttell
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
I am sorry but this is a major. I find it ridiculous it still has 110 MPH on it.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey, y'all. I've been working on this graphic for last two days. What do y'all think of my forecast and graphic?



I'll explain the forecast in a blog post later tonight

I took 3 days for my own
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
I was definitely surprised to see Gordon flirting with major hurricane intensity after I got back from work. Another busted forecast on my part. :P
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Quoting weatherman12345:

center consolidated just along the southern part of the convective blob


Yes, just exactly on the southern part.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25304
Quoting stormchaser19:


Levi the models have the X factor of the SAL in his logic solution? or only the dry air


SAL is dry air...plus dust.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
I still hope for it to be major by 11 PM
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
K... it's back... [breathes sigh of relief]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21433
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well dang.


Something seems funny about that strength estimate, considering the T-Numbers have supported a Major for several hours now.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
Quoting BahaHurican:
great. Our power just went out... :o(


Uh ohh.... Hope you get it back soon.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is vary close to TD right now


not so close... BD has to change to LO before that... in most cases
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.