July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1005 - 955

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting yqt1001:


65mph-70mph
Quoting Methurricanes:
about 65-70 mph


thanks. so what is major hurricane 115 mph winds in kph?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Anybody no how to block e-mails from a blogger?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17088
Quoting ltlurker:
and pickled shrimp
Gee,I feel like watching Forest Gump now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1002. yqt1001
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how strong 115 kph in mph?


65mph-70mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1001. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39247
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how strong 115 kph in mph?
about 65-70 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You have to get Flash Player.


I do and even upgraded it... It says it cannot connect to the server.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10448
Quoting Methurricanes:
Hurricane Gordon has intesified during the day and has reach catigory 2 on the Saffier Simmson scale.

With winds fron 70-90 Km/h with gusts to 115 km/h for Sao Miguel


how strong 115 kph in mph?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?


They expect heavy winds and rain and the Island of St. Mary is supposed to have the strongest winds. And the islands should expect storm surges near 14 feet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Would love to. I have tried IE and Firefox and neither is working...


You have to get Flash Player.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Grothar:


$12.00
LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39247
Quoting Methurricanes:
Hurricane Gordon has intesified during the day and has reach catigory 2 on the Saffier Simmson scale.

With winds fron 70-90 Km/h with gusts to 115 km/h



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
I still believe Gordon will pull of major hurricane status before he gets caught up in unfavorable conditions.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17088
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Evening guys.

Come to Weather Chat...


Would love to. I have tried IE and Firefox and neither is working...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10448
Quoting Grothar:


Are you sure that's the good map? :)


No but it seems to be the only one running a 18z run. :p Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gordon is going higher then the NHC predicted, (Yay, I'm right for once) and I can see Gordon jumping to the first major of the season, a low-end cat3, but one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.


How 'bout shrimp po-boys?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?
Hurricane Gordon has intesified during the day and has reach catigory 2 on the Saffier Simmson scale.

With winds fron 70-90 Km/h with gusts to 115 km/h for Sao Miguel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening guys.

Come to Weather Chat...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, you think I'm an amateur at this :)


I don't know
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
FIM9 18z Keeps Helene? over Mexico and coming in weaker with 94l so far...



Are you sure that's the good map? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
984. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (T1214)
9:00 AM JST August 19 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tembin (1002 hPa) located at 17.6N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.1N 125.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.3N 125.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 22.7N 124.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


weatherbug??? never heard of that one


Hey, you think I'm an amateur at this :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
What is the difference between a Prawn and a Shrimp?


$12.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?
duck and cover
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


weatherbug??? never heard of that one
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Tillman @ ch 13 in Houston filled his forecast with "possible, maybe, watch and see about something near Houston by Fri. He apparently doesn't read anything here or updated model runs or forecast because his talking points came from 24 hrs ago. Typical TV weather people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?


It basically says Gordon is a Cat two and should weaken to a Cat one when it hits. At least, I think that's what it says.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
976. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?


rain & wind....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
buoy in front of 94L..water temp 81 degrees..........Model: AP19
Initialized: Aug. 18, 2012 12:00 Z
Hour: 30 (forecast position for 8/19 18Z)
Model Type: Late Cycle
(released 6 hours after initializaton date)
Coordinates: 13.2N 37.6W
Wind Speed: 15 kts (17 mph)
MSLP: 1011 mb
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39247
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
from wikipedia:
They differ from other, similar crustaceans, such as Caridea (shrimp) and Stenopodidea (boxer shrimp) by the branching form of the gills and by the fact that they do not brood their eggs, but release them directly into the water.



on topic:
so how bout that Gordon? first major of the altantic season, nevermind what NHC says =p


Thanks. Was curious. They taste the same to me.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10448
Quoting yoboi:



112 to be exact...


which would make it a major

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FIM9 18z Keeps Helene? over Mexico and coming in weaker with 94l so far...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Busy night on chat. Anybody is welcome to join.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?


LOOKOUT!!! Run and hide....

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10448
Quoting Tazmanian:




what that say?


google translate
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
from wikipedia:
They differ from other, similar crustaceans, such as Caridea (shrimp) and Stenopodidea (boxer shrimp) by the branching form of the gills and by the fact that they do not brood their eggs, but release them directly into the water.

Quoting Dakster:
What is the difference between a Prawn and a Shrimp?


on topic:
so how bout that Gordon? first major of the altantic season, nevermind what NHC says =p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



that is not a major. and it dos not have 105mph winds it has 110mph winds


Oh taz he's just saying it should be a major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
DATA FROM PORTUGAL FOR THE AZORES....
all Portuguese

Portugal Met. Institution
Informação especial
Comunicado válido entre 2012-08-18 22:10:00 e 2012-08-19 22:10:00
Assunto: Aviso de Furacão - Gordon 2012.08.18 21:00 TUC

O furacão Gordon intesificou-se durante as últimas horas classificando-se neste momento como de categoria II na escala de Saffir-Simpson.

Prevê-se que até as 06h TUC de segunda-feira 20 enfraqueça para categoria I e se encontre localizado muito próximo da ilha de S. Maria.

Para a ilha de S. Miguel estão previstos ventos médios entre 70 e 90 km/h com rajadas até 115 km/h.

Para a ilha de S. Maria estão previstos ventos médios até 130 km/h com rajadas até 160 km/h.

Está prevista ainda para a zona do Grupo Oriental precipitação muito forte, trovoada e agitação marítima muito forte com ondas entre 14 e 16 m

Link




what that say?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


About $10 bucks a pound?


That is one...

Also, I can't get into weather chat for some reason. Ohh well..
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10448
Quoting Tazmanian:
RIP

AL, 07, 2012081900, , BEST, 0, 227N, 990W, 25, 1009, LO,


For now... until it reemerges into the Gulf. Apologize if me being so adamant about it is bothering anyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
What is the difference between a Prawn and a Shrimp?


About $10 bucks a pound?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
962. yoboi
Quoting ltlurker:
and pickled shrimp


and shrimp boudain....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39247
DATA FROM PORTUGAL FOR THE AZORES....
all Portuguese

Portugal Met. Institution
Informação especial
Comunicado válido entre 2012-08-18 22:10:00 e 2012-08-19 22:10:00
Assunto: Aviso de Furacão - Gordon 2012.08.18 21:00 TUC

O furacão Gordon intesificou-se durante as últimas horas classificando-se neste momento como de categoria II na escala de Saffir-Simpson.

Prevê-se que até as 06h TUC de segunda-feira 20 enfraqueça para categoria I e se encontre localizado muito próximo da ilha de S. Maria.

Para a ilha de S. Miguel estão previstos ventos médios entre 70 e 90 km/h com rajadas até 115 km/h.

Para a ilha de S. Maria estão previstos ventos médios até 130 km/h com rajadas até 160 km/h.

Está prevista ainda para a zona do Grupo Oriental precipitação muito forte, trovoada e agitação marítima muito forte com ondas entre 14 e 16 m

Link
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

shrimp etouffee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ltlurker:
and pickled shrimp


YES! One of my guilty pleasures hahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Official Shrimp Blog....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some 00Z models coming out - not much change in BAM suite...
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe they are crazy....what time frame?


I didn't see it a friend told me. Idk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1005 - 955

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.