94L a threat to the Lesser Antilles; Gordon a hurricane; Helene hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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A large tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night (Invest 94L) is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, and is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 27.5°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. This morning's 8:15 am EDT ASCAT pass caught the east side of 94L, and showed a partial surface circulation. Satellite images show just a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and I expect the earliest that 94L could develop into a tropical depression would be Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will gradually warm from 27.5°C to 28.5°C over the next four days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm more to the northwest, as suggested by the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model, and by three members of the GFS model ensemble forecast (Figure 2.) However, the models have been trending more towards a solution where this trough is not strong enough to influence 94L's path. This scenario will be more likely if 94L takes its time to develop, since a weaker storm will be smaller and shallower, and less likely to respond to the trough passing to the north. Our two best performing models, the GFS and ECMFW, both take 94L through the Lesser Antilles. The ECMWF, which predicts that 94L will stay weak and not develop, is faster, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The GFS model is slower, bringing 94L to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday as a hurricane. The models have shown poor run-to-run consistency in both the timing and the track of 94L, so it is difficult to assess which land areas might be most at risk, and when. A database of historical probabilities of storms in the same location as 94L maintained by Dr. Bob Hart of Florida State University reveals that historically, 45% of storms in this location have eventually hit land, with Canada (13% chance) and North Carolina (15% chance) the most likely targets. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 17, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white.

Gordon becomes a hurricane
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon heads eastwards at 18 mph. Gordon became the third hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season at 5 am Saturday morning, and is sporting an impressive-looking eye on visible satellite loops. Gordon should be able to maintain hurricane status until Sunday, when wind shear will rise steeply to 30 - 40 knots, and ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. The combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon to a strong tropical storm by the time it arrives in the Azores Islands Sunday night, but the storm will be strong enough to bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland. About 126,000 homes were without power after the storm in Northern Ireland and one injury was reported.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Gordon.

Helene makes landfall in Mexico
Tropical Storm Helene made landfall near 10 am EDT as a tropical storm near Tampico, Mexico, with 40 mph winds. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, but moisture from Helene may feed into a stalled frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy rains to the northern Gulf Coast early next week.

I'll have a new post this afternoon, giving a quick global weather summary for July, the 4th hottest July in Earth's history.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
A Cat. 2 heading to the Azores? Interesting.

Bust season. :P


Wow, it looks very good. Hope that the Azores get prepared.
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576. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gordon at 105mph, strongest storm of the season so far.


Is that official?
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If anybody cares, Tropical Storm Aletta's TCR is out.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.


They're only trending weaker because of land interaction from what I've seen.
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TO BahaHurrican let me tell,I AM always prepared for hurricane season so how dare you try to say that I not. As a matter of fact also ALL BARBADIANS know about hurricane preparations. I have not come here to hang out unlike some people I have other things to do your highness.
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A Cat. 2 heading to the Azores? Interesting.

Bust season. :P
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Euro hates Isaac."No mean "I" storm this year" lol.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?

Yes,but when irene ,the storm changes the COC to other to the North of PR, i remember tha.....t is a difference system
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.

End of The Season....

LOL
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.4N 124.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
124.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES (180929Z
AND 180933Z) SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS CAN BE SEEN A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER LARGER TUTT CELL RESIDES FURTHER TO
THE EAST, SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE LLCC AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE SMALLER TUTT CELLS SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE WEST AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME CONNECTED TO THE LARGER TUTT CELL WHICH
RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. CURRENTLY, AN 181334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD
OF 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING
FROM 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EQUATORWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD
TURN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, people here stated that winds might be now between 105 - 115 mph... still a very strong storm even if becomes extratropical...I think whether its tropical or not is as dangerous and strong


Well, people here who say things like that are wrong. It's doubtful that Gordon currently has winds anywhere near 115 mph, and it's going to weaken very rapidly over the next 24 hours. By the time it gets to the Azores, maybe 65 mph, and the Azores get winter storms wth winds in that range on a regular basis.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF agrees that Gordon is, indeed, a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 0, 1013, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, D,
The strongest of the season.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm was flirting with 90 mph at 11 am AST, and 105 mph at 2pm AST. I honestly have no clue why Brennan was so conservative in the intermediate.

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What's been done to deserve crow lol.
Just projecting--all sorts of theories flying around about 94L.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



I was just saying anyway...they should though... or the Azores do something themselves...whatever
Something many in the US are not used to thinking about... very hard to evacuate from islands...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If ATCF is right, Gordon's gone from 983mb to 969!

The storm was flirting with 90 mph at 11 am AST, and 105 mph at 2pm AST. I honestly have no clue why Brennan was so conservative in the intermediate.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
The EUROPEAN model couple of run back was showed a strong system,so take it easy its just matter of time to see the consensus
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No change to 94L.

AL, 94, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB
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If ATCF is right, Gordon's gone from 983mb to 969!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 07, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 987W, 25, 1009, TD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting unknowncomic:
Crow Burgers, Crow....


What's been done to deserve crow lol.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Are first OFFICIAL cat 2 of the year.It would be something to see a major that far north.That's highly unlikely though.

Only 2 hurricanes to become major north of 38 N



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Gordon at 105mph, strongest storm of the season so far.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's 94L lol

Helene dissipates 120 hours sooner.
LOL, I realise that.
But it says 'Helene' on the header.... and there is nothing.
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494 aspectre: Gordon sure is pretty for a Cat.1

And this explains why: AL08 18August6pm 34.0n3.75w 90knots 969millibars
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Crow Burgers, Crow....
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University of Wisconsin WRF

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting sar2401:


Models always do poorly with invests since they have so little data to work with. You'll see them all over the place until 94L at least becomes a TD, and I wouldn't put a lot of faith in them until it becomes a TS. It gets a little tiring to have every update causing some here to predict a storm that crushes the Islands...Florida...the east coast...take your pick.


94L's predicted path/s changed dramatically since leaving Africa.
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548. SLU
978

WHXX01 KWBC 181839

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1839 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120818 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 1800 120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 34.6W 14.6N 37.6W 15.2N 40.8W

BAMD 13.3N 32.0W 13.7N 34.7W 14.3N 37.2W 14.9N 39.7W

BAMM 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 34.8W 14.5N 37.7W 14.9N 40.7W

LBAR 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 35.8W 14.6N 39.6W 15.3N 43.4W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 1800 120821 1800 120822 1800 120823 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 44.8W 16.5N 53.7W 15.9N 62.3W 14.6N 68.8W

BAMD 15.5N 42.4W 16.6N 47.8W 17.0N 52.9W 17.8N 56.1W

BAMM 15.6N 44.1W 16.5N 51.5W 16.5N 59.2W 16.2N 65.8W

LBAR 16.0N 47.2W 17.1N 54.1W 14.9N 58.8W .0N .0W

SHIP 64KTS 84KTS 96KTS 100KTS

DSHP 64KTS 84KTS 96KTS 100KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 23KT

LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 23.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


$$

NNNN

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no reason at all for this not to develop that I can think of. It's already developing as we speak. 24 hours ago, this model was showing a major hurricane. Very poor consistency.
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/1 2zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif"
This goes back to what I just posted earlier. These models are very bad with invest and will turn the strength of these potential future storms on and off like a light switch. as long as 94L is a invest the models are pure Garbage right now IMO.
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Quoting pottery:

That's Helene ???????

Going to get Nasty, with a head-on collision between her and 94L......


That's 94L lol

Helene dissipates 120 hours sooner.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Are first OFFICIAL cat 2 of the year.It would be something to see a major that far north.That's highly unlikely though.
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Quoting HrDelta:
I'm getting a real big feeling of deja vu here. In 2006, Hurricane Gordon caused Hurricane Warnings in the Azores.

In 2012, Hurricane Gordon is Hurricane Warnings in the Azores. Has there been another instance like this?
The previous 2 incarnations of Gordon both hit FL...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF agrees that Gordon is a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 30, 30, 0,


I'm getting more of a feeling it might still be a Hurricane when it gets to the Azores in about 36-48 hours.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Un-nested HWRF has a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.


That's Helene ???????

Going to get Nasty, with a head-on collision between her and 94L......
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That's why I was saying earlier you just have to watch. You should already have your preliminary preps in place anyway [sure most Bajans have an idea of what to do]. Now the idea is to keep an eye on 94L to see if it does live up to the lofty predictions. If it passes near Barbados as a storm, it could bring anything from Tropical Storm force to Cat. 3 winds, but the lower level winds seem more likely at this point.

My thinking is that forewarned is forearmed. If you keep track of the storm's progress with NHC, it will give you a good idea of what's going on with it. But worrying about a storm that is not likely to affect Barbados before Friday is over-stressing. Better to use the information to help you make informed decisions.

If you stick around the blog, read the Doc's post FIRST, and remember that a lot of what gets posted in the comments is people's opinions about possible options for the storm. This information can be useful because it gives you an idea of the storm's potential to harm you and yours. However, very few in here are experts or professional mets. We have some talented amateurs, and they often have worthwhile thoughts to share. The rest of the blog comprises enthusiasts with varying levels of knowledge, understanding, experience, and skill. Some of us are [ahem] very enthusiastic....

This is a great place to hang out if you want to stay on the leading edge of information about various tropical cyclones and in particular their formation. HOWEVER, I strongly advise, Use With Caution - it's highly addictive...

I said this earlier... lol... we need a "this makes me unhappy" button... lol

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08L/H/G/C2
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
539. VR46L
still searching for Isaac 144hr EURO 12z



But heres Isaac Newton

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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like a wet tuesday morning for the panhandle of florida..with schools open


Thank goodness we never had wet days when I went to school. We didn't even have school busses - we had to walk through the not wet weather. Kids today have it so tough. :)
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Quoting Chiggy:
12Z EURO @ 144hrs...


Yawn,over me.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14777
Since living in PR heaved been thru: Hugo, Hortense, Georges, Jeanne and last year queen "irene". Will Issac be next or will it go south of PR or nort east of the islands just like Earl did.
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Un-nested HWRF has 94L as a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
...Also, I am wondering why haven't UJMET, GFDL & HWRF jumped on to developing 94L - UKMET just have as I write this! Usually HWRF would be the first one to blow this kind of systems..
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, you mean the bottle? Yeah, OK.

You are too kind !
Thank you.
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532. SLU
317

WHXX01 KWBC 181834

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1834 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120818 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 1800 120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.0N 37.5W 34.3N 34.3W 34.6N 30.9W 34.6N 27.8W

BAMD 34.0N 37.5W 34.6N 32.0W 36.3N 26.2W 39.2N 20.7W

BAMM 34.0N 37.5W 34.4N 33.0W 35.3N 28.1W 37.1N 23.8W

LBAR 34.0N 37.5W 34.3N 33.2W 35.5N 29.1W 37.7N 25.2W

SHIP 90KTS 91KTS 80KTS 69KTS

DSHP 90KTS 91KTS 80KTS 69KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 1800 120821 1800 120822 1800 120823 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 25.3W 35.5N 21.0W 35.8N 16.0W 36.5N 11.7W

BAMD 43.0N 15.0W 50.5N .2E 54.2N 18.5E 52.7N 36.1E

BAMM 39.5N 19.8W 44.2N 10.6W 49.5N 1.7W 54.4N 9.6E

LBAR 41.7N 20.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 60KTS 37KTS 20KTS 15KTS

DSHP 60KTS 37KTS 20KTS 15KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.0N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 41.5W DIRM12 = 93DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 45.0W

WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT

CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 80NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
144 hours
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Quoting pottery:

Can I use the Hookah, then?


Oh, you mean the bottle? Yeah, OK.
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ATCF agrees that Gordon is, indeed, a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 0, 1013, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, D,
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12Z EURO @ 144hrs...
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Quoting Skyepony:


Here's Debbie's final model average error to compare. Just as bad..

And I don't think there is any reason to assume that any of the models is correct as yet, for 94L. Track, intensity, timing will all be better analysed if it becomes a TS soon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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