Tropical Storm Helene arrives; 94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

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After a long path across the Atlantic that mirrored the track of Hurricane Ernesto, Tropical Depression Seven finally got its act together enough over the Bay of Campeche tropical storm breeding grounds to earn the name Helene. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's eighth storm. Most of this year's storms have been weak, though, so the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 21 is not that much higher than the normal year-to-date ACE of 15, based on a 1981 - 2010 ACE climatology. The normal yearly ACE for the Atlantic is 104. Helene doesn't have much room to work with before landfall, but has the potential to be a prodigious rainmaker for Mexico, with NHC predicting 5 - 10 inches for portions of Northeast Mexico. This part of the coast is not in drought, so will be prone to heavy flooding. Fortunately, Ernesto's main rains fell to the south of where Helene's rains are falling. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, though we can't rule out a few thunderstorms bringing 1 - 2 inches of rain to extreme South Texas on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Helene.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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1776. hydrus
4:49 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the track could even have a bit of WSW bias to it in the short term but certainly West it is.

The Bermuda High is south of where it usually is this time of year. That is not good .
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1775. kmanislander
3:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Looks like the track could even have a bit of WSW bias to it in the short term but certainly West it is.

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1774. HuracanTaino
3:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't trust the Euro for tropical systems unless they've already been named.

It's notorious for not even initializing something as strong as category 3 anyway, which happened a few times in the past 2 or 3 years...

Plus that screwy map system doesn't even have the pressure values listed for the storms on some of the frames.

Although it's true that scenario would be screwed up, since it would put a developed system going into the Gulf already in tact, and the Antilles and PR would probably get hits or close calls twice within the same week..
That happened in Puerto Rico in 1979 when cat 5 David passed 45 miles to our south spreading hurricane winds above a 100mph through the Island. Three days later a weaker Frederick crossed the island from east to west.....just from what I remember ...
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1773. Jedkins01
3:38 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Good morning Jed..yeah finally some great rains


Yeah it's great to see it returning, it looks like there will be plenty more over the next several days, wet pattern setting up that's for sure. There will be periods of concentrated heavy rain as upper disturbances move through occasionally as well.
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1772. BahaHurican
3:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.
Thought about that earlier... maybe he's sleeping in... lol.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1771. BahaHurican
3:31 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1770. RTSplayer
3:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Wow.

0600z GFDL still takes Gordon to 87kts and 973mb on the 20th...

And the 1200z takes it to 95kts...

...but the other models keep it in the 75kts to 80kts range.


What do they have for building code in the Azores?

If GFDL or HWRF is right, they are about to get a category 2 hurricane, or a very close call from one anyway...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1769. xtremeweathertracker
3:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Tropical Storm Helene has made landfall along the central Mexican coastline this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. While dissipation over land seems likely over the next few days over northern Mexico, a second solution is also possible as depicted by the GFS model. Helene could move back out over water and restrengthen, possibly moving northward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is also possible that the GFS is "seeing" a piece of energy or leftover convection interating with a frontal system currently pushing into SE Texas and later offshore. Development along frontal boundaries are all too common this time of year especially since conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable and water temperatures are high. This is something to watch over the next few days as steering currents for Helene remain weak and it appears she may meander for a few days.
Invest 94L has been designated for a robust tropical wave that moved off the African coast a few days ago. Models are latching onto development of this system and conditions appear to be ripe in the central and western Atlantic as 94L makes its trek westward. All indications are that this system could become Tropical Storm Isaac in 24 to 36 hrs. This system will need to be watched closely over the next few days and will likely become the leading weather story as most models predict 94L developing into a powerful system. The first landmass to feel future Isaac's effects will be the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico in approximately 5 days or so. Thereafter the models diverge somewhat on a track into the Gulf of Mexico by a weaker system, or recurve just off the East Coast by a strong hurricane. A recurve near Bermuda is also not out of the question. Future Isaacs eventual track will depend on the orientation of the A/B high, and timing of troughs of low pressure over the eastern seaboard. This area needs to be watched carefully over the next 10 days or so.
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1768. midgulfmom
3:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Tropicalupdate.....glad you are interested. No worries....no perfect people in here including/esp me. BBL.....
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1767. stormchaser19
3:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
94L is crossing over a 29 grade celsius water Woooo!
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1766. BahaHurican
3:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:
OMG, my heart is pumping


I remember at the time thinking Georges was about as bad as it could get for a season... then we had Mitch. Pple forgot about Georges altogether for a while...

Quoting LargoFl:
I dunno..looking at 94L in this pic..does not look impressive at all..doesnt even look like its trying to form.....my hope is it stays disorganized..some people might get hurt with this one down the road if it doesnt......................
IIRC, NHC never expected more than slow development before tomorrow anyway... it's why they didn't go right to high. Like H23 and others have said, we have plenty of time to watch this.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I'm not back yet I'm just checking in seeing whats going on

so far it is good

Hmm I don't know. but my gut is telling me, this will be a Carib/GOM system and the recurves in the GOM into Fl. not sure about the time frame, but thats what me guts telling
I can see the CAR part of this. I think it's way too early to call anything else right now. There are too many complex relationships out there to resolve, especially if the Twave behind 94L does attempt its own, separate, cyclogenesis. What we might end up with is 94L catapulted off to the NW, while the system behind it meanders into the CAR...

Lots of possibilities out there.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1765. Dakster
3:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Speaking of nasty historical storms. There are some events regarding the memories of Hurricane Andrew...

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/16/2956859/eve nts-commemorate-hurricane-andrew.html

I don't really like the word 'commemorating' as I usually associate that word with a positive event - I don't have positive memories of Hurricane Andrew.
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1764. sunlinepr
3:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
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1763. redwagon
3:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wonder how many remember the GFS longrange about 10, 12 days ago spitting out several storms in a row... looks like it had the correct general idea...

That last ascat SLU posted depicted the western half of a confused center.. Skyepony should get us the goods as soon as they come in. No need to send the HHs in until one storm gets absorbed by the other.
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1762. Hurricanes305
3:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting victoria780:
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)


Unlikely, as the ridge remains adamant. In fact the system might take a slight dip wsw then a west to WNW track ensues.
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1761. seer2012
3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting victoria780:
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)
My guess after P.R. and missing the conus.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1760. Clearwater1
3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Glad you are back from the short vacation WKC. Hope you enjoyed yourself. Do you think 94L will impact the convention (aug 27-30 in Tampa)???
I know you are not asking me that question, but I live in TB area. It may or may not affect us, but I bet it has a lot of RNC officials a little more than worried. What do you think?
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1759. lurkersince2008
3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
.
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1758. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1757. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1012 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

MSC005-157-181715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.Y.0086.120818T1512Z-120818T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
AMITE MS-WILKINSON MS-
1012 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
WESTERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1012 AM CDT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN WILKINSON AND WESTERN AMITE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&
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1756. stormchaser19
3:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.


Maybe he is waiting the 12z gfs
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1755. Hurricanes305
3:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Very Ominous setup being depicted by the latest GFS.
Notice during the run it shows it slightly weaken near the DR due to land interaction and the trough is quite flat over Canada. Thus setting up a classic trap for 94L as ridging will likely build over the system and force a WNW to NW motion. However the GFS underestimate the unually strong subtropical high and the system shoots up the slight weakness in the ridge rather than it building it over Issac. Stay tune for the 12z run.............................
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1754. LargoFl
3:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
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1753. kmanislander
3:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting SLU:


Still disorganized at the surface based upon that partial pass but the 850 mb signature is looking good.
I would give it another 24 hrs to TD status, possibly 36. These CV systems usually take their time developing closer to 40W.
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1752. BahaHurican
3:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting redwagon:

Where'd Gro go?

This is still obviously 2 discrete systems, the next ascat/oscat will show that. We still haven't solved the argument of which blob will be absorbed by which..
Or whether they will go their separate ways, which is looking more likely by the frame.......

I wonder how many remember the GFS longrange about 10, 12 days ago spitting out several storms in a row... looks like it had the correct general idea...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1751. victoria780
3:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1750. LargoFl
3:18 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40721
1749. SLU
3:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Could this become a TD today maybe?


If it has a closed circulation I think it's already a TD.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5352
1748. Tazmanian
3:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
all right at 2 pm I think it could go to 60 or 70% chance?



may be
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
1747. Tropicalupdate
3:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:




i said may be sunday but not today



you need too learn too read evrere ones commets be for asking the same thing
k Iam only 14 dont know much about hurricanes?
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1746. BahaHurican
3:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
I keep looking at the purples just off the SE CONUS coast and wondering if that implies some kind of troughiness [a ULL? haven't looked] in the area...

Quoting hydrus:
It is entirely to early to make predictions, but I am a bit concerned about Haiti. The CMC has it missing the Caribbean which is good.
Looks like it clips Antigua, though...

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1745. SLU
3:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5352
1744. Tropicalupdate
3:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L would likey be come a TD by sunday
all right at 2 pm I think it could go to 60 or 70% chance?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1743. Tazmanian
3:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Could this become a TD today maybe?




i said may be sunday but not today



you need too learn too read evrere ones commets be for asking the same thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
1742. kmanislander
3:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is HH going anywhere today?


No, Helene is inland so the mission slated for today from yesterday's plan will be scrapped.
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1741. Tropicalupdate
3:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting SLU:
Could this become a TD today maybe?
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1740. Tazmanian
3:14 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What u think what happens at 2pm with Tropical wave and is it possible it could form a TD today?



94L would likey be come a TD by sunday
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1739. SLU
3:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5352
1738. LargoFl
3:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE
STEADY WEST WINDS WILL PUSH THEM WELL INLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROHIBIT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. IF THE SEA BREEZE FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE...IT WILL BE
PINNED TO THE COAST.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...WIND IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND OTHER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

FLORIDA IS THE LIGHTNING CAPITAL OF NORTH AMERICA. IF SKIES
THREATEN OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT
RETURN OUTDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE FINAL CLAP OF THUNDER.
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1737. washingtonian115
3:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.
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1736. Tropicalupdate
3:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop
What u think what happens at 2pm with Tropical wave and is it possible it could form a TD today?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1735. SLU
3:12 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur _25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds124.png
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5352
1734. Walshy
3:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Hurricane Warning...

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Midday updates on Gordon and Helene: the government of Portugal has now issued a hurricane warning for the central and eastern Azores. Helene has moved inland near Tampico Mexico and weakened to a tropical depression, but there still is a threat of flash floods and mud slides over higher terrain. For more, visit www.hurricanes.gov
Like · · Share · 19211 · 8 minutes ago ·
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1733. Tazmanian
3:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is HH going anywhere today?



nop
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1732. Tropicalupdate
3:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

That is my concern right there. If 94L is at those coordinates then it will be really bad news down the road. I never did buy the hard right turn the models had over the past two days showing 94L near 20 N at 50 W
Is HH going anywhere today?
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1731. LargoFl
3:10 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
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1730. Dakster
3:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
I am hoping that 94L does not become as much a pain in the neck as Wilma was... Since we are drawing comparisons between the two.
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1729. kmanislander
3:08 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon Plan of the Day was a little later coming out..

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK--PSBL LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N AND 50W ON 21/1800Z.


Good morning.

That is my concern right there. If 94L is at those coordinates then it will be really bad news down the road. I never did buy the hard right turn the models had over the past two days showing 94L near 20 N at 50 W
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1728. LargoFl
3:08 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
.....................tropical wave down by the islands right now
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1727. LostTomorrows
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
\hey, Gordon looks like he's mixing out that bit of dry air quite well. I think he may, in fact, make it to category 2 by day's end. His recurvature towards the Azores should also be happening then.

I should warn a good friend of mine who has taken a vacation to a family villa up there, he's not very attuned to weather, so he probably has no idea that there may be a hurricane barreling towards him. Seems that this Gordon is living up to his namesake's legacy of six years ago after all.

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1726. midgulfmom
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2012
Ok....now a little concerned about a storm impacting my area. Worst for me between Houma, LA and N.O.
Just got word my home elevation approved and can start in a week or two. Murphy's Law may come into play....:p
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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