Ex-TD 7 reawakening; Gordon Azores-bound; 94L may be a long-range threat
Satellite loops show that a small area of disturbed weather with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms has developed in southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven. Heavy rains from ex-TD-7 are beginning to impact the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, and radar from Mexico shows some rotation to the echoes, but little in the way of spiral banding. With wind shear a light 5 -10 knots and very warm ocean waters of 30°C to take advantage of, ex-TD-7 has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall over the Mexican coast on Saturday, said NHC in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate ex-TD-7 this afternoon around 2 pm EDT. Ex-TD-7's west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through landfall, and the storm may be capable of bringing heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the Mexican coast near Tampico. Brownsville, Texas should stay just north of the heavy rain area of ex-TD-7.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of ex-TD 7.
Tropical Storm Gordon heads toward the Azores
Tropical Storm Gordon continues eastwards towards the Azores, and is not a threat to any other land areas. Satellite loops show Gordon has a respectable amount of organization and heavy thunderstorm activity. Gordon's environment has gotten marginal for a hurricane--wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C, which is right at the border of where hurricanes can usually exist. Water vapor satellite loops show a large region of dry air on the south side of the storm. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain moderate through Saturday night, then rise steeply to 30 - 40 knots on Sunday. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical. However, Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. The extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.
Figure 2. Tropical Storm Gordon as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 10:25 am EDT August 16, 2012. At the time, Gordon was strengthening, with 50 mph top winds. Image credit: NASA.
94L developing off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been very gung-ho on this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. 94L will follow a west to west-northwest track over the next week, and may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Friday, August 24. This storm could eventually affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or Canada 10 - 14 days from now, but could also recurve harmlessly out to sea well before reaching the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the 00 UTC run of the GFS model. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.
I'll have a new post this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
It's what I've been saying all along. The pattern favors a more westward solution, maybe not a landfall, but not a recurve east of Bermuda. The ridge builds more after Gordon passes to the north, and steers 94L more to the west. The EURO probably has the right idea.
Earl part 2?
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormHelene for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 1005millibars to 1006millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
Vector changed 334.8*NNWest@5.1mph(8.2km/h) to 339.4*NNWest@6.1mph(9.9km/h)
CVM-CiudadVictoria
TAM-Tampico :: MMNU-Nautla :: VER-Veracruz :: VER-Ciudad del Carmen :: CPE-Campeche
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is exTD.7's became a TropicalDepression again
The next dot NNWest of that dot is where TD.7 became TropicalStormHelene
The southernmost dot on the longest straight line is TS.Helene's most recent position
The longest line is a straightline projection thru exTD.7's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
17August6pmGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over LaPesca (right,CVMdumbbell)
18August12amGMT: exTD.7 was heading toward passage over El Porvenir,Tamaulipas in 1day15hours from now (when this mapping was posted)
Copy&paste cvm-23.9n97.75w, tam, mmnu, ver, cme, cpe, pcm, 19.2n90.7w- 19.3n92.6w- 19.3n94.2w- 19.7n95.2w- 19.9n95.7w, 19.9n95.7w-20.3n95.9w, 20.3n95.9w-20.8n96.1w, 20.3n95.9w-24.575n97.661w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormGordon for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 993millibars to 990millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 92.9*East@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 93.1*East@18.2mph(29.2km/h)
CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria
The westernmost dot marks Gordon's position at the start of its 2nd day as a TropicalStorm
The westernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Gordon's most recent position
The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
17August12amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 24.4miles(39.2kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,top)
17August6amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 95.4miles(154kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,bottom)
17August12pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 452miles(727kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (unconnected unlabeled dot)
17August6pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 365miles(587kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (bottom blob hanging beneath the straightline projection)
18August12amGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage 348miles(559kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria in ~1day22hours from now (when this was posted)
Copy&paste cvu, sma, 36.575n25.029w-35.548n25.144w, pxo, fnc, 30.71n27.5w, 31.806n26.621w, spc, vde, 34.3n51.1w-34.6n49.1w, 34.6n49.1w-34.4n47.0w, 34.4n47.0w-34.3n45.0w, 34.3n45.0w-34.2n43.1w, 34.3n45.0w-32.03n26.46w, 36.928n25.017w-32.03n26.46w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Viewing: 1251 - 1262
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index