Ex-TD 7 reawakening; Gordon Azores-bound; 94L may be a long-range threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

Share this Blog
37
+

Satellite loops show that a small area of disturbed weather with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms has developed in southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven. Heavy rains from ex-TD-7 are beginning to impact the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, and radar from Mexico shows some rotation to the echoes, but little in the way of spiral banding. With wind shear a light 5 -10 knots and very warm ocean waters of 30°C to take advantage of, ex-TD-7 has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall over the Mexican coast on Saturday, said NHC in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate ex-TD-7 this afternoon around 2 pm EDT. Ex-TD-7's west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through landfall, and the storm may be capable of bringing heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the Mexican coast near Tampico. Brownsville, Texas should stay just north of the heavy rain area of ex-TD-7.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of ex-TD 7.

Tropical Storm Gordon heads toward the Azores
Tropical Storm Gordon continues eastwards towards the Azores, and is not a threat to any other land areas. Satellite loops show Gordon has a respectable amount of organization and heavy thunderstorm activity. Gordon's environment has gotten marginal for a hurricane--wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C, which is right at the border of where hurricanes can usually exist. Water vapor satellite loops show a large region of dry air on the south side of the storm. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain moderate through Saturday night, then rise steeply to 30 - 40 knots on Sunday. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical. However, Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. The extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Gordon as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 10:25 am EDT August 16, 2012. At the time, Gordon was strengthening, with 50 mph top winds. Image credit: NASA.

94L developing off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been very gung-ho on this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. 94L will follow a west to west-northwest track over the next week, and may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Friday, August 24. This storm could eventually affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or Canada 10 - 14 days from now, but could also recurve harmlessly out to sea well before reaching the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the 00 UTC run of the GFS model. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1262 - 1212

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1262. aspectre
7:30 AM GMT on August 18, 2012
While waiting for a late ATCF, a very very late mapping derived from
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormGordon for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 993millibars to 990millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 92.9*East@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 93.1*East@18.2mph(29.2km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The westernmost dot marks Gordon's position at the start of its 2nd day as a TropicalStorm
The westernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
17August12amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 24.4miles(39.2kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,top)
17August6amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 95.4miles(154kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,bottom)
17August12pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 452miles(727kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (unconnected unlabeled dot)
17August6pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 365miles(587kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (bottom blob hanging beneath the straightline projection)
18August12amGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage 348miles(559kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria in ~1day22hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, sma, 36.575n25.029w-35.548n25.144w, pxo, fnc, 30.71n27.5w, 31.806n26.621w, spc, vde, 34.3n51.1w-34.6n49.1w, 34.6n49.1w-34.4n47.0w, 34.4n47.0w-34.3n45.0w, 34.3n45.0w-34.2n43.1w, 34.3n45.0w-32.03n26.46w, 36.928n25.017w-32.03n26.46w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1261. aspectre
6:06 AM GMT on August 18, 2012
While waiting for the newest ATCF, a very late mapping derived from
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormHelene for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 1005millibars to 1006millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
Vector changed 334.8*NNWest@5.1mph(8.2km/h) to 339.4*NNWest@6.1mph(9.9km/h)
CVM-CiudadVictoria
TAM-Tampico :: MMNU-Nautla :: VER-Veracruz :: VER-Ciudad del Carmen :: CPE-Campeche

The westernmost dot on the kinked line is exTD.7's became a TropicalDepression again
The next dot NNWest of that dot is where TD.7 became TropicalStormHelene
The southernmost dot on the longest straight line is TS.Helene's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection thru exTD.7's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
17August6pmGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over LaPesca (right,CVMdumbbell)
18August12amGMT: exTD.7 was heading toward passage over El Porvenir,Tamaulipas in 1day15hours from now (when this mapping was posted)

Copy&paste cvm-23.9n97.75w, tam, mmnu, ver, cme, cpe, pcm, 19.2n90.7w- 19.3n92.6w- 19.3n94.2w- 19.7n95.2w- 19.9n95.7w, 19.9n95.7w-20.3n95.9w, 20.3n95.9w-20.8n96.1w, 20.3n95.9w-24.575n97.661w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1260. sunlinepr
1:12 AM GMT on August 18, 2012
Freaking serious....


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
1259. BahaHurican
11:28 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Hmmm... getting some thunderboomers here... hope we don't loose power... too hot.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1258. bigwes6844
11:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Where did everyone go, or is this my computer not updating?
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
1257. wxchaser97
11:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Where did everyone go, or is this my computer not updating?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
1256. flwxboy
11:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1255. bigwes6844
11:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
NEW BLOG EVERYBODY thats still on this one
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
1254. GeoffreyWPB
11:01 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Are the models trending more westward since this was posted?...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
1253. wxchaser97
11:01 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
So I come back to find the gfs run of doom/very close to doom running, great.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
1252. tropicfreak
10:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Felix2007:
300h


Earl part 2?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1251. reedzone
10:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd like to see a defined LLC develop before making decisions, but the more westerly track does make sense.

I don't see this getting plucked out of the CATL and moving NNW like the 12z showed.


It's what I've been saying all along. The pattern favors a more westward solution, maybe not a landfall, but not a recurve east of Bermuda. The ridge builds more after Gordon passes to the north, and steers 94L more to the west. The EURO probably has the right idea.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1250. emcf30
10:53 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
hid the mode runs dont went JFV see them


LMAO
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1952
1249. Hurricanes101
10:52 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
does anyone have the latest atcf coordinates for Invest 94L?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1248. bigwes6844
10:52 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
NEW BLOG EVRYBODY!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
1247. louisianaboy444
10:48 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
GFS 18Z: Very bad news for the Islands and the East coast while gulf coast residents' hurricane kits are collecting dust
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
1246. STXHurricanes2012
10:47 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Yall, calm down.

The models are certainly terrible beyond 7 days on forecasting track, and they even suck within 5 days on intensity.

Needs to be strong enough to classify so they can get a better center fix on it before everyone goes nuts worrying about some northern turn a week from now.

Besides all that, whatever happens in the BoC over the next 5 days is going to screw up the steering anyway...

Agree! You guys need to calm down...we got Helene first!!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1245. Stormchaser2007
10:47 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Explanation for the changed track from a meteorologist:

"Looks like the mid-Atlantic ridge at 18Z was analyzed quite a bit stronger than progged by the 12Z GFS. I'm guessing some satellite radiances were assimilated with warmer mi-level temps than forecasted."

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1244. NJcat3cane
10:45 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Since a run like this is playing out right now let me say..If a bad storm came up the east coast like Irene did no one in De NJ or NY would evacuate at all..They blew up Irene so much and had everyone in south jersey leave(i stayed was in "eye") and nothing happened around here worse then that derencho that happened about 2 months back..so it would end up really bad if a big storm came rolling threw the NE or MidAtlantic
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1243. Stormchaser2007
10:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
I'd like to see a defined LLC develop before making decisions, but the more westerly track does make sense.

I don't see this getting plucked out of the CATL and moving NNW like the 12z showed.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1242. RTSplayer
10:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Yall, calm down.

The models are certainly terrible beyond 7 days on forecasting track, and they even suck within 5 days on intensity.

Needs to be strong enough to classify so they can get a better center fix on it before everyone goes nuts worrying about some northern turn a week from now.

Besides all that, whatever happens in the BoC over the next 5 days is going to screw up the steering anyway...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1241. SFLWeatherman
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
lol
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is going to love this run..
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
1240. Felix2007
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Impossible.
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1239. stormchaser19
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1238. Levi32
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
18z GFS makes much more sense with 94L's long-term track, more in line with my thoughts from earlier. Still a long time to work on this one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
1237. ncstorm
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Joe Bastardi is going to love this run..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1236. WxGeekVA
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
1235. Felix2007
10:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
What the?
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1234. washingtonian115
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hey GFS, really appreciate the offer. But I'll pass thanks.
Me to...All though we do need the rain..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
1233. Stormchaser2007
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1232. SFLWeatherman
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
WOW!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
1231. Felix2007
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
New England is done
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1230. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1229. Tazmanian
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW 971!!!!!!!!



poor new york
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
1228. Articuno
10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Felix2007:
300h


This might get bad for the Delmarva Peninsula
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
1227. SFLWeatherman
10:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
WOW 971!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
1226. CarolinaHurricanes87
10:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


the thing with earl though is that most models were showing the recurve even while Earl kept going NW..the NHC discussions are a little comical with them kept using the verbage, "should turn"


IIRC, Earl easily made it close enough to be seen on local radar. Despite the NHC confidence that it definitely would make the turn, it was not easy to believe when a major hurricane was so close AND looked to be heading directly for our area! Living in Raleigh I (thankfully) don't think I'll have to deal with anything like that again... WAY too close for comfort.

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1225. Felix2007
10:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
NOT GOOD
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1224. VAbeachhurricanes
10:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Hey GFS, really appreciate the offer. But I'll pass thanks.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
1223. ncstorm
10:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1222. Tazmanian
10:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Felix2007:
975!!



i think NC could get hit
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
1221. washingtonian115
10:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Watch out NC.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
1220. Felix2007
10:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
300h
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1219. CybrTeddy
10:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a recurve just east of the CONUS.


Close shave, really bad news for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic if it where to verify.

Don't put much faith in it though personally IMO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
1218. Felix2007
10:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
975!!
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1217. SFLWeatherman
10:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
NY 975MB
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
1216. WxGeekVA
10:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
264


IRENE PART 2!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
1215. bigwes6844
10:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
any long tracking storm is gonna blow up fast with these waters!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
1214. Gearsts
10:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
hold your breath..186 hours

hitting PR?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1960
1213. Felix2007
10:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
979 mb!!
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1212. SFLWeatherman
10:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2012
264
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957

Viewing: 1262 - 1212

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.