Tropical Storm Gordon forms; 5th earliest appearance a season's 7th storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2012

Share this Blog
29
+

Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fifth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, 2011, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Gordon's place in history
The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.


Figure 2. Track of the 1994 version of Hurricane Gordon. The storm killed over 1100 people in Haiti.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The most likely formation location of such a storm would be off the Texas coast, or off the Mexican coast south of Texas.

A large tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today, and the GFS and ECMWF models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. Preliminary indications are that this new storm will follow a path similar to Gordon's, recurving to the east of Bermuda, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 127 - 77

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Quoting jascott1967:


Good.


:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
Now if you move that 5 to the last place with the two 00's in the middle it'll be 2005 :P!!!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
this is the GFS ensembles for the 1st cape verde system..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14461
Quoting AussieStorm:
From....

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 54.8W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

To...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.



we can say Gordon is dropping 1mbar per hour...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
??

I guess Gustav and Ike doesn't count??
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.


Good.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 607
The GFS operational may keep the potential GOM storm south but the ensembles dont..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14461
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.

I was just about to post that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gordon going through RI now?.
Nah.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
Looking at this pic, it appears there are two centers of rotation. But it could just be my old eyes are seeing something not there. I see the one over water, but to the sw there is a circulation to the clouds over land. Does anyone else see that? BTW Good Morning :)


Good morning! :) Now I see the second circulation to the SW too. Good catch. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gordon going through RI now?.

6MB in 6Hrs.... I am not sure if I'd call it R.I
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hurricane Ernesto was born on August 1, 2012 and it's still alive on August 16, 2012 as Tropical Depression Hector... hmm.


I had had a quick look earlier to see just when he did form LOL

I think it would be grand if these remnants drifted around Gulf of Calif and regenerated yet again :P I know, not likely at all...but I think it'd be great LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting AussieStorm:
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.


Microwave showed about an 80% eye wall structure had developed in just about 24 hours. Tonight should be interesting to see how he will intensify. He has a trough to the west that is providing excellent outflow to his north and east, just like Chris from earlier this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:


Post #95: What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?


Mid level spin
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.



Yeah it looks like a storm that would dump 3 to 6 inches. Honestly we always flip about strong winds and what not but flooding from torrential rain is much more destructive and effects more people and kills more people. Lighting also is more destructive and often kills more, although lightning deaths are down thanks to people listening to advice on how to stay safe. But lightning sounds dangerous and looks dangerous, therefore people heed its power more and listen to the education on how to avoid death or injury.

However despite the same amount of effort if not more being put into dangers of flooding, people still don't take it seriously enough. People still think they can drive through flash floods with their cars because they continue to underestimate the power of water and it's ability to destroy and kill. Water might move slow or not look as powerful as severe winds but it packs a lot of energy from a physics standpoint regardless of human perception, and the damage it does speaks of itself.


At least here in Florida the ground handles heavy rain amounts a lot better, especially high rainfall rate events. However, it doesn't mean we still can't and don't get flash flooding too, just not as easily as many other regions in the country.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:


What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?


That's what I'm seeing too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC dropped TS Gordon's pressure 6 mb going from 1011 to 1005 in just 6 hours. Impressive... and the winds are up to 50 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Conversation I had yesterday with a met from Houston


Me:
Do you see a similar setup compared to TS Frances in 1998 coming about? A tropical entity in the BOC with a cool front stalling over Gulf coast pooling moisture and the high pressure ridge causing tight pressure gradient with a low in the Gulf.

Partial Report on Frances 1998

“After drifting southwest for a day, the cyclone organized into a tropical storm, still poorly
defined, on the afternoon of the 10th. By this time, Canadian High pressure had settled into
the Ohio Valley, draping a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. This acted to focus rains,
and increase wind speeds along the western Gulf Coast. Gale force winds lashed the coast
from the 10th through the 12th in the tight pressure gradient between Frances and the high
pressure center, leading to a large area of coastal flooding and erosion.”


Him:
Frances could be a good analog…only more south and west. Bret 99 is another possible analog…although I would not expect the current system to be as strong given the likely decent W/SW shear over the western Gulf. The GFS has stuck to its guns with development and the other models have with the no development. 12Z GFS is further south and into MX well south of the Rio Grande.

Me:
Maybe a good thing then, as Frances’s heaviest rains were well east into LA, I assume because of the frontal boundary being stalled out helped with all that. If something goes to MX then maybe SE TX would be in the bulls eye.

Him:
It is possible as long as not too much dry air from the north gets involved. But it is middle August and not mid September.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
86% Humidity at da Haus.


Phew

Uptown, New Orleans, LA 83.8 F Heat Index 96 F 79 F Humidity 86% North at - 0.00 in / hr 20 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Looking at this pic, it appears there are two centers of rotation. But it could just be my old eyes are seeing something not there. I see the one over water, but to the sw there is a circulation to the clouds over land. Does anyone else see that? BTW Good Morning :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Major winter coming up for East Coast? According to forecasters, it's a yes.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Now I see it...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 607
103. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Post #95: What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That would make sense as this is a powerful trough moving in a few days. There is going to be a strong pull to the NE.
I think the models will start to go more north over these next few runs.That would be the better solution.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
From....

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 54.8W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

To...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.



Yeah it looks like a storm that would dump 3 to 6 inches. Honestly we always flip about strong winds and what not but flooding from torrential rain is much more destructive and effects more people and kills more people. Lighting also is more destructive and often kills more, although lightning deaths are down thanks to people listening to advice on how to stay safe. But lightning sounds dangerous and looks dangerous, therefore people heed its power more and listen to the education on how to avoid death or injury.

However despite the same amount of effort if not more being put into dangers of flooding, people still don't take it seriously enough. People still think they can drive through flash floods with their cars because they continue to underestimate the power of water and it's ability to destroy and kill. Water might move slow or not look as powerful as severe winds but it packs a lot of energy from a physics standpoint regardless of human perception, and the damage it does speaks of itself.


At least here in Florida the ground handles heavy rain amounts a lot better, especially high rainfall rate events. However, it doesn't mean we still can't and don't get flash flooding too, just not as easily as many other regions in the country.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Interesting that the Euro brings this up to LA.If that's the case it has more time over water..


That would make sense as this is a powerful trough moving in a few days. There is going to be a strong pull to the NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Hurricane Ernesto was born on August 1, 2012 and it's still alive on August 16, 2012 as Tropical Depression Hector... hmm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

This part bears repeating.


Yep. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Msdrown:



Please attach a link to article.



Israel warns of monthlong war after possible strike on Iran's nuclear program

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Interesting that the Euro brings this up to LA.If that's the case it has more time over water..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
The Gulf of Mexico should have a bit of action soon..84 hour..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
"EP, 08, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1159W, 30, 1004, TD

up to 35 mph.... DIE ALREADY!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Visible loop of X TD 07
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WHETHER AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO FORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE IMMATERIAL TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...WITH THE MOIST PLUME FROM THE SOUTH INTERSECTING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE

This part bears repeating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."



Please attach a link to article.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."
Why does this sound like war-mongering to me?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here some pics from yesterdays massive storms that rolled thru E C FL.

Ponce Inlet


Lightning bolt over a Clermont


Port Orange


Flagler Beach


Very near my house
Even though posting about storms in Floria gets old, the pictures doesn't. Great images!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all, I hope that system in E mex goes right over TX. You guys need the rain bad. I just hope it doesn't start fires with lightning or cause flash floods. Good luck.

I guess the doc and TWC thinks this cold front could at least cause some thunder storm conditions and at worse stir up a TS/TD. Is that pretty much what he is saying guys??????
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Quoting PlazaRed:

I'll do some more later, I just got to extract them from the camera.
Once I have uploaded them, can somebody advise me how I can include by pasting the odd one of them in a post?
Sometimes we get very interesting pictures of weather here as well as you guys.
Same way u do it in your own blog setting... just use the URL from the pic on the wunderground page.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."
Israel have been saying that everyday the past 20 years... won't believe it until they actually strike Iran. I also don't believe it's a month long war either... more like more than a year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


I don't see it.


Kind of looks like off the W YUC kinda NW of that big thunderstorm mass over the Yucatan. Sorry not very scientific. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Great photos man, powerful thunderstorms, I bet they put down some crazy rainfall amounts and some insane lightning. Anytime you get thunderstorms like that in Florida you expect insane rainfall and large amounts of lightning.


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Gordon [2000] was one of two U.S. landfalling tropical storms of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season. The seventh named storm and fourth hurricane of the season, Gordon developed in the extreme western Caribbean Sea from a tropical wave on September 14.

So two Gordons hit FL, and two seem likely to impact the Azores...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody else notice the EPac has gone relatively quiet the last 3-5 days?


Morning, about to be real quiet, not much left here......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thrawst:
Yanno.. all this dry weather in the Bahamas is really sketchy.. it's usually like this in the winter... not the summer.

It's usually not that wet at first in August, anyway. Big rain usually don't start till next week, or even week after. Then there's enough for the whole month... lol

I doubt we get through next week dry. Maybe not even through today. Some p.m. popup showers are supposedly likely....

Go on the beach while u can... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487

Viewing: 127 - 77

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.