Tropical Storm Gordon forms; 5th earliest appearance a season's 7th storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2012

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Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fifth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, 2011, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Gordon's place in history
The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.


Figure 2. Track of the 1994 version of Hurricane Gordon. The storm killed over 1100 people in Haiti.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The most likely formation location of such a storm would be off the Texas coast, or off the Mexican coast south of Texas.

A large tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today, and the GFS and ECMWF models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. Preliminary indications are that this new storm will follow a path similar to Gordon's, recurving to the east of Bermuda, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I guess, perfect conditions allow systems to bomb out big time.


That could be but sometimes conditions are perfect and a storm doesn't intensify as much as expected. Intensity forecast are still the most difficult.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol I don't know what to tell you, it doesn't have full model support, maybe that's why, I'm not counting on it but it does look good. Bay news 9 seems to be picking up on it somewhat as they have the later half of the extended forecast at 50% with cooler temps. they are probably waiting to see how it materializes before bumping them up too much more. I'm not jumping on the gun until I see it but given that such events are common in August it seems reasonable that a wetter pattern for the coast will arrive.

Thank you Jed. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?

Lol. Sorry NOW the link works. :)


Okay great..glad to hear Texas is doing that..NC should follow suit..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15194
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is what I was implying it doesn't have to be the winds and storm surge that kill it is the fresh water flooding. Good link.

The NHC has a very good archive which goes back to 1958.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Patrap:
Ike images








Ike from the ISS








Now that is telling.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31916
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
I am in Cape Coral and have not heard anything about this potentially heavy rain event. TWC has us with a 30% chance of rain for the next four days. What's up with that?



lol I don't know what to tell you, it doesn't have full model support, maybe that's why, I'm not counting on it but it does look good. Bay news 9 seems to be picking up on it somewhat as they have the later half of the extended forecast at 50% with cooler temps. they are probably waiting to see how it materializes before bumping them up too much more. I'm not jumping on the gun until I see it but given that such events are common in August it seems reasonable that a wetter pattern for the coast will arrive.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?


I think so....because it was endangering rescue crew members by not evacuating & thus putting then foolishly at risk of their lives for the stupid peeps not evacuating.

BTW, if Ike had tracked a mere 20 miles more to the West, I would have possibly been hit much harder. As it was, I was on the "easier" side of the storm.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think the African loop is not updated. Here is in real time what is going on there.



I'm thinking that the African wave is going to be a contender.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia


Water level in my House in Lake Charles was actually
some 4-5 inches higher from Ika than from Rita and Rita passed much closer to us..I think Dr, M. did a
post on "integrated kinetic energy" or Ironically
the "IKE" scale as a more accurate way to describe
storm strength...
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217. wpb
gordon will weaken the ridge causing anything moving off africa to curve north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gordon RGB Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting AussieStorm:

1994 Gordon also killed 500 in Haiti and left 1000's homeless.

Link
That is what I was implying it doesn't have to be the winds and storm surge that kill it is the fresh water flooding. Good link.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its pulling an Humberto mid-ocean...I really wish we understood why Humberto-like scenarios happen...

I guess, perfect conditions allow systems to bomb out big time.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Gordon is likely going to be stronger than I forecasted yesterday... And I went on the high end on intensity with my forecast... So I thought!


Its pulling an Humberto mid-ocean...I really wish we understood why Humberto-like scenarios happen...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3657
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Yep, some try to "hunker down" to ride it out, but hunkering down doesn't help when your entire house goes underwater. The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations. Even if they don't actually say "evacuate", sooner, they need to influence people's mindframes & get people ready to possibly do so much sooner, or else many could get caught in traffic jams & never make it out in a major hurricane. I know it is costly to do evacuations, but what is the cost of many lives if a storm doesn't do what they think it should?


-- Not talking about Ike in the matter of late warnings or no warnings, but at other times.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Ike images








Ike from the ISS





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting ncstorm:


I cant remember which storm it was Ike or Gustav but the news was showing people standing at some type of walkway right at the beach and the waves were roaring over the railings and they were talking about they werent leaving and the storm hadnt even gotten there..might have been galveston?

In NC, they are fining people for failing to heed mandatory evacuation orders..

Not heeding evacuation orders in NC to get more expensive


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?

Lol. Sorry NOW the link works. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting BahaHurican:
It was still pushing the cat 4 surge from earlier. Same thing with Katrina. That's why it's so important to remember that wind category is not automatically synonymous with surge potential. I feel sorry for some of the Bolivar residents who stayed to help others get to safety, then couldn't get out because they didnt' expect the kind of surge impacts that actually occurred. I really wouldn't advise anybody to stay on a barrier island as a storm approaches. Unlike much of the Bahamas, these islands are extremely vulnerable to 100% washover. At least here most islands have a few spots above 35 ft where residents can huddle to get away from the surge...


Yep, some try to "hunker down" to ride it out, but hunkering down doesn't help when your entire house goes underwater. The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations. Even if they don't actually say "evacuate", sooner, they need to influence people's mindframes & get people ready to possibly do so much sooner, or else many could get caught in traffic jams & never make it out in a major hurricane. I know it is costly to do evacuations, but what is the cost of many lives if a storm doesn't do what they think it should?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Ike and Gustav in '08 were cat 2s @ landfall...so that sounds right.

So I think we have to go all the way back to Wilma 2005....which was a cat3 at landfall (cat 3 or higher = major hurricane)...

Wow...it really has been so long since the US has seen a major hurricane landfall. This is interesting...since 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now 2012 have been really active...

Check #187. 1860-1869 didn't have a major. 3285days approx with out a major.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Bluestorm5:
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.



I think the African loop is not updated. Here is in real time what is going on there.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah we really need it now, and given that large rain events off the gulf are common in August and September due to stalling fronts from the north and large available moisture over warm waters mixing with these fronts, it seems reasonable to me.
I am in Cape Coral and have not heard anything about this potentially heavy rain event. TWC has us with a 30% chance of rain for the next four days. What's up with that?
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Good Morning. Interesting "split" between the lower trajectories of the more recent CV waves (that did not develop/finally developed in the case of Ernesto) after getting into the Caribbean because of their weakened state and Gordon, and the models as to the next wave, which are developing before making it to the Antilles thus taking them out into the Central Atlantic. We have yet to see a classic long track CV storm that does not fully develop until just before reaching the Antilles as a TD or TS then enters into the Caribbean, or steers towards PR, as a hurricane or close to it. That type of system/trajectory are the ones to worry about if it comes to pass.......Fish storms (with the exception of impacts to Bermuda or the Azores) are a good thing.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.


Dang! Is Gordon is undergoing RI? ...based on that visible loop and that microwave image.

Dag nabbit...I hate suprises like this...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3657
Quoting GTcooliebai:
"During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired."

Thanks Dr. Masters, just goes to show you don't need a big powerful hurricane plowing through your front door to have lives taken and destruction to occur. Interesting storm track this Gordon took it was bouncing around making sure it visited as much countries as it could and while it didn't make landfall on Haiti the effects were still the same.

1994 Gordon also killed 500 in Haiti and left 1000's homeless.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Speaking of Ike, when a storm is approaching don't be this guy!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLykQrCLKE8
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201. HurrMichaelOrl
3:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Jeff9645:


Typical, every day, every year normal thunderstorms! Its not like its an amazing thing that afternoon storms form ya know but hey some people get really excited over some rain and thunder!


I agree that our typical summer thunderstorms (especially posting about them constantly) can become tiresome. These thunderstorms, however, are the most interesting and exciting weather we usually experience from May-September. If it were not for these, our summer weather would be unbearable, boring and the Florida landscape would look like a desert.

It appears that storm in the Atlantic the models are picking up on for next week is forecast to take the path that most Cape Verde storms do-out to sea.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111
200. Jedkins01
3:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia


Ike was a strange hurricane in terms of structure as it approached land and made landfall, powerful though that's for sure.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
199. WxGeekVA
3:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Gordon is likely going to be stronger than I forecasted yesterday... And I went on the high end on intensity with my forecast... So I thought!

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
198. NCHurricane2009
3:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

History in the making, guys.

Ike and Gustav in '08 were cat 2s @ landfall...so that sounds right.

So I think we have to go all the way back to Wilma 2005....which was a cat3 at landfall (cat 3 or higher = major hurricane)...

Wow...it really has been so long since the US has seen a major hurricane landfall. This is interesting...since 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now 2012 have been really active...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3657
197. reedzone
3:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Lets remember that we do have people that live in the Azores, this isn't a pretty picture for them..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7363
196. Bluestorm5
3:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7995
195. AussieStorm
3:21 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:


You think Gordon has a shot at CAT 2? Maybe a 90knot storm? He will have 2 days to with good conditions, what direction will shear be out of on day 2 and 3? Because if it has a western component at all to it it may negate the shear impacts to this storm if it has enough forward speed. We have already seen Chris this year survive well into cooler waters. Azores need to be keen on this storm it could surprise them a bit.

Remember the HWRF had Gordon hitting 106.1kts. Could it really be right?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
194. Msdrown
3:21 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
It was still pushing the cat 4 surge from earlier. Same thing with Katrina. That's why it's so important to remember that wind category is not automatically synonymous with surge potential. I feel sorry for some of the Bolivar residents who stayed to help others get to safety, then couldn't get out because they didnt' expect the kind of surge impacts that actually occurred. I really wouldn't advise anybody to stay on a barrier island as a storm approaches. Unlike much of the Bahamas, these islands are extremely vulnerable to 100% washover. At least here most islands have a few spots above 35 ft where residents can huddle to get away from the surge...


Thats how barrier Islands get formed. From big storms. Good Advice you have there.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
193. GTcooliebai
3:21 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Felix2007:
2006


2012
Gordon likes the Azores now, the first 2 Gordon's made landfall in FL.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
192. StormTracker2K
3:21 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
I believe Gordon has rapidly intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane.





Pinhole Eye?

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191. NCHurricane2009
3:20 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Hey y'all...

Did another one of my detailed tropical updates this morning. My intensity forecast for Gordon was just a touch higher than NHC's...but if this keeps up...I wonder if I under-estimated him...

Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3657
190. ncstorm
3:20 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The water was washing cars off some of the roads in my county on the TX/LA border the morning of the 11th. And it only got worse and spread west after that.


I cant remember which storm it was Ike or Gustav but the news was showing people standing at some type of walkway right at the beach and the waves were roaring over the railings and they were talking about they werent leaving and the storm hadnt even gotten there..might have been galveston?

In NC, they are fining people for failing to heed mandatory evacuation orders..

Not heeding evacuation orders in NC to get more expensive
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15194
189. WalkingInTheSun
3:19 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) – the high end of Category 2 – but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.


Snap, - yeah, I remember that. Very wide wind-field!!
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
188. GTcooliebai
3:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
"During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired."

Thanks Dr. Masters, just goes to show you don't need a big powerful hurricane plowing through your front door to have lives taken and destruction to occur. Interesting storm track this Gordon took it was bouncing around making sure it visited as much countries as it could and while it didn't make landfall on Haiti the effects were still the same.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
187. AussieStorm
3:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast%u2026 a record length of time.


This is not a record...
September 1860 to September 1869
9yrs or 3285days approx


Click image for full size
Of course this data is slightly questionable.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
186. StormTracker2K
3:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Hmmmmmmm..... Microwave of Gordon




About to be hurricane Gordon

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
185. Jedkins01
3:17 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Given the pattern coming up Jed I think the west coast of FL is in for a major rain event as a strong SW flow takes hold and add cold mid level temps to the mix we should see a wide spread rain event for several days.




Yeah we really need it now, and given that large rain events off the gulf are common in August and September due to stalling fronts from the north and large available moisture over warm waters mixing with these fronts, it seems reasonable to me.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
184. ILwthrfan
3:17 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
I believe Gordon has rapidly intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane.





You think Gordon has a shot at CAT 2? Maybe a 90knot storm? He will have 2 days to with good conditions, what direction will shear be out of on day 2 and 3? Because if it has a western component at all to it it may negate the shear impacts to this storm if it has enough forward speed. We have already seen Chris this year survive well into cooler waters. Azores need to be keen on this storm it could surprise them a bit.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1504
183. WxGeekVA
3:17 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Hmmmmmmm..... Microwave of Gordon


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
182. aspectre
3:16 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
62 VR46L: exTD7 starting to get interesting for the first time in a while

It's never quit being interesting, not even during its crossing through Nicaragua and Honduras.
NHC shoulda never Deactivated the ATCF file.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
181. Tropicsweatherpr
3:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Here is this morning's analysis of the big wave (Pouch 15L) emerging West Africa that the models develop.

P15L
13N, 7W
700 hPa

All models analyze an initial circulation that is oriented SW-NE over west Africa with an OW max on the SW end and another at the NE end. However, the models handle the situation quite differently. ECMWF & GFS tend to merge these features into a single, westward-moving pouch. UKMET and NOGAPS forecast the northeastern portion of the wave/pouch to be stronger and eventually emerge off of Africa, but slower and later than in ECMWF and GFS. In the meantime, UKMET and NOGAPS spin up an additional circulation to the west in the ITCZ/MT. Is the southwestern portion of the initial circulation playing some sort of role with the spin up of this additional circulation?


ECMWF: As it often does, ECMWF depicts yet another OW max in the center in the elongated initial circulation, which is what I use at that time for the position. The OW maxima merge as they become more S-N oriented over the African coast. The resultant single-OW max pouch then moves relatively straight westward over the eastern Atlantic, intensifying gradually and steadily.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the southwestern OW max stronger during the first couple days.

UKMET: Initial position is between the two OW maxima, and then UKMET strengthens the northeastern portion. That pouch eventually moves off of Africa, faster than NOGAPS but still east of ECMWF and GFS. Like NOGAPS, UKMET then develops a very strong additional pouch in the ITCZ/MT west/ahead to P15L, between P15L and P14L.

NOGAPS: Initial position is between the two OW maxima, and then NOGAPS, like UKMET, definitely favors the northeastern portion, almost dissipating the southwestern OW max by 12 hours. That results in a position that is farther east than in ECMWF & GFS. Then P15L moves slowly westward. Like UKMET, NOGAPS then develops a new circulation in the ITCZ/MT to the west/ahead of P15L.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
180. BahaHurican
3:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Yes, I mentioned it in the parentheses :)

The NHC can't send HH there, can they?
Not unless they were already in the Azores, I'd guess.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
179. Bluestorm5
3:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Ike was both. I think the major damage was from tidal surges as those came from it's pre-landfall winds, right? Didn't it then lose wind speed before landfall? So, it came across Houston less powerful than it really was at first, but the storm surge was already there, if I remember correctly.
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7995
178. hurricanehanna
3:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting Msdrown:


According to the Archivial record here on WU they both came in as a CAT 2 with very low MB's which caused the storm surge. I'm just quoting the data on this web page.

my bad - Gustav was a 2. I thought I remembered landfall as a 1. It wasn't fun here...but points further East got it worse than us.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
177. etxwx
3:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
And now for the Asian weather news...
China issues top alerts on typhoon Kai-Tak
Updated: 2012-08-16 21:03
Excerpt: BEIJING - Chinese marine environment authorities upgraded the alert about sea waves and storm surges to the highest level of red for the approaching typhoon Kai-Tak on Thursday afternoon. The move was made at 4 p.m., eight hours after the previous upgrade in the morning, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center said in a report.
The center uses a four-tier color-coded wave warning system, with red being the most severe, followed by orange, yellow and blue. Typhoon Kai-Tak, the 13th of this year, was about 600 km to the southeast of Zhanjiang city of Guangdong province at 2 p.m. and was expected to hit the coastal area of southern Guangdong on Friday, at noon or during the afternoon, said the report. It forecast that from Thursday evening to Friday, northern waters in the South China Sea will produce waves six to eight meters high, while waters off coastal areas in Guangdong will see waves four to six meters high.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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