Tropical Storm Gordon forms; 5th earliest appearance a season's 7th storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2012

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Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fifth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, 2011, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Gordon's place in history
The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.


Figure 2. Track of the 1994 version of Hurricane Gordon. The storm killed over 1100 people in Haiti.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The most likely formation location of such a storm would be off the Texas coast, or off the Mexican coast south of Texas.

A large tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today, and the GFS and ECMWF models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. Preliminary indications are that this new storm will follow a path similar to Gordon's, recurving to the east of Bermuda, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

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240 hours
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Will be interesting to see how much Gordon interrupts the flow/changes the high.
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228 hours
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Quoting ncstorm:
180 hours
Mean trough coming through the Mid-west.This will certainly kick this baby out to sea.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
washingtonian115.......Not all Florida is the Miami, Orlando,Tampa craziness...Many wonderful small towns to see . Micanopy is one of my favorites...This is where Doc Hollywood was filmed with Michael J Fox...Lots of history, and it takes you back 100 years..
Lived in Bronson, talk about little towns....
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Quoting AegirsGal:
The TV WX folks were saying that anyone east of Worchester, MA were under the gun again tonight as well as the next few days. I am keeping my eyes peeled since I live less than 1/4 mile from the Merrimac River.
ok glad your here..keep the folks updated ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
192 hours--looks like its stalling?
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180 hours
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Quoting aspectre:
209 WalkingInTheSun: The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations.

The NHC issued very clear "Evacuate or Die" Advisories for the coastal areas surrounding Galveston well before Ike started to cause even the most minor problems.
The problem was ya had a buncha I D I O T local&commercial forecasters who were saying that the NHC was WRONG, and local politicians and business owners who wanted to believe those idiots.


The local mets were even saying evacuate. I believe it was the mayor of Galveston who hesitated to react.
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Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for the update, hope the flooding doesnt hurt too many people up there,maine has alot of hills and the low lands are going to get all that water..wish it wasnt STILL raining there but there's a low pressure with this rain, sure thought I saw a spin on the radar....stay safe up there
The TV WX folks were saying that anyone east of Worchester, MA were under the gun again tonight as well as the next few days. I am keeping my eyes peeled since I live less than 1/4 mile from the Merrimac River.
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washingtonian115.......Not all Florida is the Miami, Orlando,Tampa craziness...Many wonderful small towns to see . Micanopy is one of my favorites...This is where Doc Hollywood was filmed with Michael J Fox...Lots of history, and it takes you back 100 years..
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maybe some of the weather guys here can answer this...any chance this Low over maine goes out to sea abd begets yet another storm headed towards europe in time?..or no......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting hurricanehanna:
when is the tail end of the front coming across the states anticipated to be in the GOM ?


This weekend and into Monday according to TWC.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
GMZ001-162015-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1045 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012


.SYNOPSIS...ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W ALONG 27N AND ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE N GULF THROUGH MON. TROPICAL WAVE EXITING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH LATE SAT. POSSIBLE LOW PRES MAY
FORM ALONG THE WAVE FRI AND SAT.
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N
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21195
Quoting AegirsGal:
293. I live in Northern Mass, we got a nice swath of rain after midnight until about 10am this morning. It moved off North into NH and ME, so yeah I think they may have some flooding issues. We got something like 3-4 inches of rain, and NE is anything but flat, so streets become rivers with any significant rainfall here.
thanks for the update, hope the flooding doesnt hurt too many people up there,maine has alot of hills and the low lands are going to get all that water..wish it wasnt STILL raining there but there's a low pressure with this rain, sure thought I saw a spin on the radar....stay safe up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
174
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Quoting Chicklit:


yup lookin good
It's in a moist environment with shear being not much of a problem.Not to mention it all ready has a good structure.Should start to see this ramp up in a couple of days.Looks like a decent chance of recurvature but don't count on this yet as things can change.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
....
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lower convergence


upper divergence
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't be surprised to see the GFS go more northward.I agree with the Euro at this time in terms of track...Still a ways out though.Did you pick on the joke in post 294?


LOL..I just saw it..the Nogaps is going to make a believer out of yall one day..
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209 WalkingInTheSun: The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations.

The NHC issued very clear "Evacuate or Die" Advisories for the coastal areas surrounding Galveston well before Ike started to cause even the most minor problems.
The problem was ya had a buncha I D I O T local&commercial forecasters who were saying that the NHC was WRONG, and local politicians and business owners who wanted to believe those idiots.
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293. I live in Northern Mass, we got a nice swath of rain after midnight until about 10am this morning. It moved off North into NH and ME, so yeah I think they may have some flooding issues. We got something like 3-4 inches of rain, and NE is anything but flat, so streets become rivers with any significant rainfall here.
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National Weather Service New Orleans la
1000 am CDT Thursday Aug 16 2012


Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CDT Thursday Aug 16 2012/


Short term...once again it was a quiet night but look for the
weather to become a little more active beginning today. Temperatures
overnight have dropped into the middle 70s to lower 80s.


Today could be the least active day of the bunch but that said we
will still see almost twice as much convection this afternoon as we have
the last 2 days. Moisture has already been increasing and is
expected to through the day with precipitable waters near or above 2". The low we have
been talking about for a week is deepening over Ontario currently
with a l/west trough expected to be fully entrenched over the eastern Continental U.S.
By Friday. This has already caused the middle levels to amplify with weak northwest
flow expected over the area today and this should help to get
slightly better lift over the region. That in combination with the
increase in moisture and daytime heating should allow decent afternoon
coverage today.


As we head into the weekend look for a soggy outlook. The middle levels
will continue to amplify with the l/west trough remaining over the eastern
Continental U.S. Through the entire weekend. This will drive a cold front into
the region by Sat morning and this front will stall right over the
County Warning Area late Sat and remain there through Sun night. Ahead of the cold
front on Friday moisture will be ample and with the increasing northwest flow
numerous rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will develop. Northwest flow will then remain over
the region sending multiple impulses across the area and with a
stalled boundary over the County Warning Area rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will have no problem
developing through the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible
but flash flooding parameters dont appear to be lining up. First
upper level divergence is not really in place until late Sun night.
Second moisture will not be anomalous as precipitable waters will remain near 2"
which is only 105-115% of normal. Third...we will be under northwest flow
and even though it will send multiple impulses over the region
developing scattered/num rain showers/thunderstorms and rain the flow will not parallel the surface
boundary which has a better chance of leading to training. /Cab/


Long term...overall the medium range models are in decent agreement
for the first half of the work week.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have
made sizable adjustments from what they were showing 24 hours ago but the European model (ecmwf) has had the biggest adjustments. With that confidence is
low in the forecast basically from Wednesday and Onward.
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162 hours
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Classic Cape Verde hurricane being portrayed by the models today.
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Okay fishs time begins... i hate when everything develops too far east and leave us without rain...
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Quoting ncstorm:
156 hours
Don't be surprised to see the GFS go more northward.I agree with the Euro at this time in terms of track...Still a ways out though.Did you pick on the joke in post 294?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
would love to see the rainfall totals for maine, this has been going on since early this morning gee..stay safe up there folks...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave by Africa is impressive.Since it has model support from the two top models and the Garbage ones(ncstorms should pick up this.Lol) I bet the NHC immediately gives this a 20% chance with a side of invest.


yup lookin good
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Yes, Florida storms are seripous business. This came from yesterday's news:

WHITE CITY — A strong midday storm apparently threw a high-energy lightning bolt directly into the side of a home on Tuesday, blasting a hole in the concrete block and spewing rubble outward.

Owner Paula O'Neal wasn't home at the time, but her three dogs, birds, rabbits and an infant squirrel on an electric incubator were, and they weren't harmed.

"Poor babies," she said of the pets in the home in the 5400 block of Palmetto Drive. "It must have been one ruckus. They are looking at me like 'you are not going to leave me?,'" she said Wednesday.

Initially O'Neal didn't see that her house was struck. All she knew was that her cable television was out.

"Then a neighbor came over and had a piece of my house in their hand," she said. "I said 'oh my goodness'."

On the north side of her house, she found chunks knocked out of the wall, leaving a hole about 3- to 4-feet wide that didn't penetrate into the house. At the center, only a thin membrane of concrete covers the drywall inside the house, she said.

"Lightning is quite powerful," said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Bragaw. A typical lighting bolt has 100 million volts, compared to 110 volts in a standard house outlet. All that is concentrated into a lighting bolt with a quarter-size diameter, creating a force "exceeding a nuclear reactor," Bragaw said.

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156 hours
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when is the tail end of the front coming across the states anticipated to be in the GOM ?
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That wave by Africa is impressive.Since it has model support from the two top models and the Garbage ones(ncstorms should pick up this.Lol) I bet the NHC immediately gives this a 20% chance with a side of invest.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Folks there are several flood advisories for Maine, they must have had one huge rainstorm up there...................................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1037 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

MEC007-025-161830-
/O.NEW.KGYX.FA.Y.0051.120816T1437Z-120816T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SOMERSET ME-FRANKLIN ME-
1037 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MAINE...
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 1029 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4586 6992 4567 6978 4547 6976 4502 6963
4496 7007 4480 7069 4506 7073 4559 7045

$$

TFH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting RitaEvac:


That was before smart phones? at least I didn't have one, I could use it during and after storm to see wth is going on, but can't be using cell phone battery for that when in a hurricane situation and need battery life for making emergency calls to contacts,etc...


That is very true. I had a piece of crap blackberry but had it off most of the time unless I needed to contact someone.
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144 hours

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄


You must have been on a lunch break all day. I've seen posts from you from the first page of comments until now. Nice try.
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BBL... gotta make a run.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
132 hours
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Quoting LargoFl:
they have the Best strawberries and festival there in season, go there every year
Oh yes and at the end of the night you get to make your own strawberry shortcake.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I missed out as it was lights out for me
We're just glad u r still around to tell the tales...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shut up, nobody asked you.

Lol jk.
LOL... u started it... lol

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄
See, this is what I call blog dedication... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
TWC just announced that Dr Postel is having a live chat RIGHT NOW on Tropical storms.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting washingtonian115:
"Plant city" that sounds like a interesting city.
they have the Best strawberries and festival there in season, go there every year
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
GFS and ECMWF always had a poleward bias when showing STRONG storms forming east. an example of this is hurricane Ivan. they had it turning east of 55W east of 60W east of 70W. it turned out he turned RIGHT INTO ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. once we get something, it will be up to the ridges and troughs showing the possible scenarios
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Quoting jascott1967:


What's really pathetic is that Ike arrived after K...K...Ka..., the K storm that devastated NOLA, Alabama, MS, and parts of Florida.


Thats very true. I was lurking here at the time without a account. But I was posting on the internet on various articles that reported it. These poster from there said they were staying and having parties. I did my best doom and gloom speach based on my experience with K. Don't know if they heeded the warning or not.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Gordon becomes a hurricane(Which is more than likely) we will have 8-7-3-0.Pretty impressive for just another dead beat El nino year right?.In terms of hurricanes this is certainly surpassing 2011 so far....


NO IT'S DEAD...IT'S OVER BLAH BLAH :P

Just who is in that profile pic of yours headbanging?! LOL


"Was it N FL during Ivan where the pple walking door to door were telling pple to write their SS#s on their torsos and forearms in indelible marker so their bodies could be IDed after the storm?"

It's harsh, but I think that would be more a deterrent than fines and they should do it everytime.

In the UK you get some huge storm tides and people playing chicken on the promenades...and subsequently some do get washed out. Combine that with some of those places are party towns, and those doing it are sometimes really drunk (you'd have to see how Brits drink to know what I really mean), lifeguard can be kept busy saving stupid people in really bad and dangerous conditions. Same as people who go hiking in the mountains here unprepared. The rescue volunteers keep a log of the rescues, and you can tell they're none too happy with these people many times!
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126 hours..wasnt this depicted on the GFS in earlier runs to head out to sea way before it got here?
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Quoting sar2401:
Mandatory evacuation laws are always problematic. The Texas law allows a plice officer to arrest you and take you into custody if you refuse a mandatory evacuation order. This works if only a few are not following the order, but you can't arrest an entire town. The key is good public information so people know the chances are greater that they will die than not if they refuse to leave. We used a form that had to be filled out for people that refused to leave flood evacuation areas. It included things like next of kin information and identifying information like birthmarks and tattoos. When asked why they had to fill out the form, we told the person it would make it easier to identify their body when we recovered it and allow us to notify next of kin more quickly. Most people took the hint pretty fast when the probability of death was staring them in the face. The NWS can really hep with this by issuing strongly worded warnings, like the famous one issued just before Katrina's landfall.


Yeah, but the Galveston bear should have been arrested and probably wasn't because the entire police department were LOL.

It's odd to note, when I was living in Minnesota the NWS strongly emphasized in their Snow Storm Warnings "if you venture out you are taking your own lifes at risk" but I don't recall such warnings here in Texas when a Hurricane Warning has been posted. Of course, in MN snow storm advisory's/warnings were common so maybe I just remember them more.
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Quoting VR46L:


There's actually something nice about him when he is changing his whites top to ordinary shirt..lol ...I dont know if you get Ramseys kitchen nightmeres..

Anyway the other Gordon in rainbow



I saw it one time and he seemed tamer in the UK version than the American version which is "bleep..bleep..you donkey..bleep"..LOL..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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