Tropical Storm Gordon forms; 5th earliest appearance a season's 7th storm
Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fifth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, 2011, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Gordon.
Gordon's place in history
The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.
Figure 2. Track of the 1994 version of Hurricane Gordon. The storm killed over 1100 people in Haiti.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The most likely formation location of such a storm would be off the Texas coast, or off the Mexican coast south of Texas.
A large tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today, and the GFS and ECMWF models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. Preliminary indications are that this new storm will follow a path similar to Gordon's, recurving to the east of Bermuda, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
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This page is to give users information on the current low water or low flow situation on the Mississippi River. The river is nearing historically low levels as a drought across the central United States has limited the water making it into the basin. This has caused many problems along the river, including stranding ships that cannot navigate the low water levels and causing salt water intrustion from the Gulf of Mexico. The saltwater intrusion itself can cause many additional problems, including limiting the water supply to the residents of Southeast Louisiana.
Mississippi River at Red Landing Stage Hydrograph
Thank you!
If anyone here is a problem with me or other bloggers posting about afternoon thunderstorms in Florida on a regular basis, I ask, why?
It seems some of you would rather talk about how evil liberals are, or how evil business owners hoard too much profit, or how oil is too expensive etc. but get mad at individuals who have a passion for weather. Well you know you'd be right if this was a political/national issues blog but it's not. Last I checked it was a blog designed for weather enthusiasts...
With that said, if my passion for weather is greater than some here should those who have less of one criticize me for it? I think not, or hope not anyway. Please, if you don't like my in depth analysis of local weather then you can just leave if you really hate weather posts so much ;)
BTW, ncstorm, I don't care if you post about thunderstorms in North Carolina just as much. In fact I like hearing other people discuss their local weather, it doesn't take a severe thunderstorm to get me excited at all, in fact in only takes a simple storm, that's just how I am made.
It is said that to err is to be human, however I think that one could also argue that "to criticize is to be human" effectively.
Not bad, convection continues to be well organized with spiral banding becoming more prominent. Yea, I could now see this becoming a brief Category 1 hurricane.
Overdoing and not likely
The EUROs trough is weaker, still recurves the storm but is at a more reasonable strength. The GFS is really overdoing the strength of the troughs. It's all about timing as well.
Saffir and Simpson can define what a category 3 is but they don't get to define what a major TC is. Using cat 3 as equivalent to major is not good since the worst destruction done by TC's is not determined solely by wind speed. (Not by a long shot.) The NHC took out mention of storm surge size from the Saffir Simpson text. They should take out the word major as well.
Correct, they often do have a poleward bias.
Yeah, sometimes I forget that most of my native Houstonian and Galveston friends have not read the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 history as I have. King Vidor, film director was witness to that storm and said being on Galveston Island at that time was like living in a fish bowl with the Galveston Bay and the GOMEX coming over the top from all sides.
If we can get some 500mb height rises along the East Coast at the right time, us hurricane lovers (nuts?) may see one or two hits before the season is done, according to a meteorologist I've been following. He thinks it will happen in a couple of weeks. Time will tell.
Thing is, someone in MD or NY isn't gonna give 2 shakes about a DAILY OCCURANCE 1000 miles away. It's not a large scale system that will effect anyone else. I get tired of seeing radar of piddly little rain showers 25 miles away from (bloggers) house on the daily... imagine if everyone did that, and tell me it doesn't matter.
We deal with evacuation every time there is a storm in heading toward the keys. They evacuate the tourists first and of course the businesses and city fathers fight it. They don't want to scare off business for a false alarm. Unfortunately, timing is everything and we would rather be safe than sorry. Many a time after kicking the tourists out of town, the storm veers off. Hey, maybe I have discovered the hurricane magnet. Tourists!
I forget the year want to say the 30's but there was a large hurricane that hit the keys when many former military and out of work citizens were working on the r/r project. They were living in tents. The project manager pleading with his supiors to evavcuate the men but got the OK too late. A train from Miami came down, evaced citizens and the men just to get broad sided by the storm surge as they headed north. I think evacuations from that area took a whole new meaning after that. Saw this on History Channel.
Hey! some of us like the Miami, Orlando, Tampa craziness... lol
Think I vaguely recall this; the mayor was a woman?
I completely disagree, no one should ever be removed from their personal property for any reason. However, they should be told that if they choose to stay agianst the evacuation order there will be no city services including rescue offered to them. No rescuer should ever risk their life for someone that had fair warning, but no one should ever be removed by force from their property.
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