Hottest rain on record? Rain falls at 115°F in Needles, California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2012

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A searing heat wave rare even for the Desert Southwest sent temperatures soaring to record levels on Monday, with Needles, California tying its record high for the date of 118°F (47.8°C). The temperature might have gone higher in Needles, but a thunderstorm rolled in at 3:20 pm, and by 3:56 pm PDT, rain began falling at a temperature of 115°F (46.1°C). Most of the rain evaporated, since the humidity was only 11%, and only a trace of precipitation was recorded in the rain gauge. Nevertheless, Monday's rain at 115° in Needles sets a new world record for the hottest rain in world history. I don't think many people were outside to experience to experience the feeling of rain falling at 115°, but if they were, it must have been an uncomfortable, sauna-like experience! Thanks go to Dr. Warren Blier of the NWS Monterey office for pointing out this remarkable event to me.

It is exceedingly rare to get rain when the temperature rises above 100°F, since those kind of temperatures usually require a high pressure system with sinking air that discourages rainfall. Monday's rain in Needles was due to a flow of moisture coming from the south caused by the Southwest U.S. monsoon, a seasonal influx of moisture caused by the difference in temperature between the hot desert and the cooler ocean areas surrounding Mexico to the south. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the previous record for hottest rain, which I blogged about in June, was a rain shower at 109°F (43°C) observed in Mecca, Saudi Arabia on June 5, 2012 and in Marrakech, Morocco on July 10, 2010. The 11% humidity that accompanied Monday's rain shower at 115° in Needles was the lowest humidity rain has ever occurred at anywhere on Earth in recorded history, according to Mr. Herrera.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F. Image credit: NASA.

A "very rare" heat wave for Phoenix
The heat wave that brought Needles' record hot rain has broken an exceptional number of heat records in Phoenix, Arizona the past two weeks. According to the Phoenix NWS office, the "almost unbearable heat" of the first two weeks of August is a "very rare" event, and August 1 - 14, 2012 was the warmest such 2-week period in city history. The average temperature on August 6 - 13 was 100°F or higher each of the eight days, tying the record for most consecutive days with an average temperature of 100°. The temperature peaked at 116° on August 8, just 6° below Phoenix's all-time record of 122° set on June 26, 1990. The forecast for Phoenix call for a bit of relief--highs are expected to be a relatively modest 105° today, and down near 100° by Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

93L close to tropical depression status
A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles east of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation has formed, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased to the point where 93L should be considered a tropical depression, if the heavy thunderstorms can persist through this afternoon. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 28°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, and dry air should no longer be a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain in the low range through the weekend, and I expect this system will become Tropical Storm Gordon by Friday. The storm will not affect Bermuda, but residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass through the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week, and the GFS model is predicting something could start to spin up near the Texas/Mexico border on Monday. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms.

Most of the models predict development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.

Jeff Masters

Haboob #7 (nukegm)
Another dust storm rolling into town.
Haboob #7
Strike over the Lake. (weathercts99)
A stunning bolt of lightning over a lake in Chandler.
Strike over the Lake.

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367 Tropicsweatherpr: 93L has been renumbered!!!
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al082012.ren


Unless nominal MaxSusWinds has gone up to 35knots -- ie 93L goes straight to TropicalStormGordon -- the call is marginal. Travel-speed has been 15.6knots which doesn't leave much room* for a TD.7

* A TropicalDepression's MaximumSustainedWinds are 32.4knots at most after accounting for downward rounding to a nominal 30knots.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
EAST CENTRAL SURRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
CITY OF HAMPTON IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN CITY OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN CITY OF POQUOSON IN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF PORTSMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF ISLE OF
WIGHT...OR 8 MILES WEST OF SMITHFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ISLE OF WIGHT AROUND 445 PM EDT.
SMITHFIELD AROUND 450 PM EDT.
RESCUE AROUND 455 PM EDT.
CRITTENDEN...BEACONSDALE AND NEWPORT NEWS AROUND 500 PM EDT.
NORTHAMPTON AROUND 505 PM EDT.
FORT MONROE...BUCKROE BEACH AND HAMPTON AROUND 515 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LAWSON...MOGARTS BEACH...BENNS CHURCH...CARROLLTON...HOBSON...HILTON
VILLAGE...RALEIGH TERRACE AND PHOEBUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, the real question would be why is space on this blog's forum being taken up with talk about a Fox editorial? The OIG did an audit, then drew up a report. That report contains a dozen and a half recommendations for greater oversight and management. The audited agency has promised to implement all or most of those changes in time. It's standard operating procedure, that's all. FWIW, the Office of the Inspector General does several dozen of these a year; it's one of the ways spending by the federal government is kept in check. It's only because this particular report mentioned the word "climate" that the Fox folks started clutching their pearls in typical mock despair, knowing that in doing so they'd rile up that segment of their viewers who lack critical thinking skills. The thing is, Fox completely failed to get any traction whatsoever with the manufactured climategate and Solyndra "scandals", so now they've come back to the mud pit to try yet again.

Yawn.....
You have such a way with words Nea. Never before have I seen or heard that phrase "clutching their pearls", but it is so descriptive. Thank you. I can't wait for an opportunity to use it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
NWS is investigating a potential tornado that moved through portions of Petersburg and rural southern VA.
..bad weather in Virginia today alright, lots of warnings out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok..severe storm warnings up and down the east coast..you get the picture..stay safe out there and heed your local warnings.................................LASH FLOOD WARNING
VAC165-660-152245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0056.120815T1945Z-120815T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF HARRISONBURG IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE DALE
ENTERPRISE AND HARRISONBURG.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS...
UNDERPASSES AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
STERLING VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3860 7891 3853 7875 3839 7882 3848 7899

$$


HTS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS is investigating a potential tornado that moved through portions of Petersburg and rural southern VA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INIT 15/2100Z 18.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 21.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 23.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Wow... have we ever seen the NHC put 15kts as an intensity on any other storm? o.O
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Quoting Felix2007:

Nope


But these days would they not have declared it subtropical somewhere along there?! I have a hard time believing the NHC would claim it to be a hurricane or tropical storm all the way to near Shetland Islands these days
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

NCC065-083-127-152045-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0326.000000T0000Z-120815T2045Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-NASH NC-
348 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN NASH...SOUTHERN HALIFAX AND NORTHERN EDGECOMBE
COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WHITAKERS...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... ENFIELD...LEGGETT...
TILLERY...SPEED...SCOTLAND NECK AND HOBGOOD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 145 AND 154.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3609 7724 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
3585 7735 3604 7788 3621 7784 3633 7745
3630 7741 3627 7741 3624 7737 3622 7738
3619 7731 3617 7730 3616 7727 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 273DEG 22KT 3612 7772

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterKen:
Why are you surprised that the government mishandles our tax dollars? The question should be why is the State Department even involved in GW.
No, the real question would be why is space on this blog's forum being taken up with talk about a Fox editorial? The OIG did an audit, then drew up a report. That report contains a dozen and a half recommendations for greater oversight and management. The audited agency has promised to implement all or most of those changes in time. It's standard operating procedure, that's all. FWIW, the Office of the Inspector General does several dozen of these a year; it's one of the ways spending by the federal government is kept in check. It's only because this particular report mentioned the word "climate" that the Fox folks started clutching their pearls in typical mock despair, knowing that in doing so they'd rile up that segment of their viewers who lack critical thinking skills. The thing is, Fox completely failed to get any traction whatsoever with the manufactured climategate and Solyndra "scandals", so now they've come back to the mud pit to try yet again.

Yawn.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
ATCF says its still hanging on as a TS, but I'm hoping the NHC has enough common sense to downgrade Hector to a TD at 5:




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

...HECTOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HECTOR
COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SHIPS indicated TD 8 will be hit with 50 kts of shear in 4 days but before that conditions will be pretty favorable, possibly just long enough time in favorable conditions to become a hurricane.

Dry air isn't much of a problem anymore:


Without shear to force dry air into the circulation, not so much a problem. More of an issue will be as the system strengthens it might pull dry air in. If there is moist air at the surface--despite the dry air aloft--that might not be as great a problem. CIMSS TPW shows some moisture to the west.

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

No...actually Jose 2011 was a bigger waste...

Don of '11 was the biggest waste.... tracked all the way over the ATL to be zapped by the TX high.
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75 MPH max.
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Good call.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

...HECTOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
433 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CAMDEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
CURRITUCK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN GATES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
PASQUOTANK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEASTERN PERQUIMANS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PRINCESS ANNE TO MOYOCK TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANS
CORNER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CURRITUCK AND CHAPANOKE AROUND 455 PM EDT.
KNOTTS ISLAND...CAMDEN AND ELIZABETH CITY AROUND 505 PM EDT.
INDIANTOWN AROUND 510 PM EDT.
SHILOH...NIXONTON...WEEKSVILLE AND COROLLA AROUND 515 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE DAM
NECK...SNOWDEN...BURNT MILLS...SIGMA...SLIGO...MUNDEN...PARKVILLE...
SANDBRIDGE BEACH...LAMBS CORNER AND SHAWBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



LAT...LON 3636 7654 3681 7597 3624 7577 3622 7581
3626 7585 3615 7582 3614 7587 3626 7595
3620 7595 3616 7591 3617 7599 3630 7618
3629 7620 3615 7605 3612 7615 3612 7617
3612 7619 3617 7625 3610 7619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 310DEG 17KT 3676 7601 3650 7611
3637 7643
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
.................................wow northeast is getting hammered today
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
My forecast map for T.D.8



UNOFFICIAL


A hurricane in 36 hours? Bold...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
WESTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES WEST OF BLOOMINGDALE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST
MILFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLOOMINGDALE BY 430 PM...
POMPTON LAKES BY 440 PM...
WAYNE BY 445 PM...
RIDGEWOOD...HAWTHORNE...RAMSEY AND 6 MILES NORTH OF PATERSON BY 500
PM...

LAT...LON 4109 7450 4111 7449 4111 7414 4108 7409
4107 7408 4086 7410 4090 7428 4092 7429
4097 7429 4099 7430 4101 7439 4103 7442
4102 7443 4105 7445 4103 7450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 275DEG 15KT 4102 7449



NV
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
My forecast map for T.D.8



UNOFFICIAL


So you are expecting Rapid intensification of Td-8 ? dang, aggressive! :D ._. I expected it to peak at 65-70mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting Thrawst:


Have seen worse tropical storms .. :P

Yep...Jose...ahem...ahem...
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ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN JAMES CITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SURRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DENDRON...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAVERLY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELBERON AND DENDRON AROUND 420 PM EDT.
SURRY AROUND 425 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ELLIS
FORK...RUNNYMEDE...BEACHLAND...ALLIANCE...DELK CROSSROADS...PONS...
COMET...CHIPPOKES STATE PARK...BACONS CASTLE AND POOLESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3694 7715 3724 7706 3723 7694 3722 7692
3723 7688 3721 7670 3688 7675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 274DEG 34KT 3708 7697
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
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Another storm that was clueless.. LOL

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol, good call NCH. A lot of us did well with this one I think, even me. Despite the models dropping it and its bad satellite appearance for a few days we stuck with it and now its probably not far from being Gordon. I'd say 5AM tomorrow for the upgrade to TS.

I didn't do that well with 93L till honestly 11:55 this morning...

First I was too agressive with it right when it came off of Africa...then dismissive of it when it ate dry air...then jumped back on the bandwagon only today...

If I had that behavior in the stock market...lets just say I would be contributing to the giant point swings during panic and euphoria....

I need practice looking further into the future instead of near-term so I stop changing my mind with these storms...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
ATCF says its still hanging on as a TS, but I'm hoping the NHC has enough common sense to downgrade Hector to a TD at 5:



Have seen worse tropical storms .. :P
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My forecast map for T.D.8



UNOFFICIAL
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

No...actually Jose 2011 was a bigger waste...

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ex TD 7 floater is back


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Quoting JupiterKen:
Why are you surprised that the government mishandles our tax dollars? The question should be why is the State Department even involved in GW.


Changes in the availability of water during the dry season from reductions in glacial discharge for the Andes/Himalayas will affect over a billion people over the next 30-50 years.

This alone could be a cause of forced migrations, and associated riots/war, which are both obviously State Department issues...

But hey, let's not look at the big picture.

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Quoting Tribucanes:
NCHurricane2009 are you in the field of weather/climate in any way? Your personal blog makes me think that often when I read it. You do a great job.

I had a meteo minor....my major is in mechanical engineering....and I have an engineering job right now...

The meteo minor gave me a boost in understanding tropical and non-tropical weather....
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Lol, good call NCH. A lot of us did well with this one I think, even me. Despite the models dropping it and its bad satellite appearance for a few days we stuck with it and now its probably not far from being Gordon. I'd say 5AM tomorrow for the upgrade to TS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who said you could give yourself a cookie? Cookies are awarded by other people!😝

I didn't know that...that's probably why I gained a couple of lbs this month....oops...
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NCHurricane2009 are you in the field of weather/climate in any way? Your personal blog makes me think that often when I read it. You do a great job.
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guss ohs back

updated at 8/15/12 6:31:00 PM


AL, 07, 2012081518, , BEST, 0, 161N, 898W, 25, 1011, LO,


even no at 8/15/12 6:28:00 PM they turn off EX TD 7
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Wow, 93L is td08 what a waist..... why even mention this disturbance. It's a waist of blog space

No...actually Jose 2011 was a bigger waste...
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Quoting Thrawst:
Now THIS storm couldn't make up it's mind on where to go...

It didn't want to wonder to far from home?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Who said you could give yourself a cookie? Cookies are awarded by other people!😝
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting Felix2007:

Nope


Never seen so many continuous orange dots on a hurricane map in my life.
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Now THIS storm couldn't make up it's mind on where to go...

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Quoting Tribucanes:
Felix2007 lol nice post on the 1926 storm. Haven't ever seen that path, very interesting.


I'm thinking TD8/Gordan will probably take the same path minus the loop.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection is definitely lacking, but overall structure is great for a TD. I bet this makes hurricane status.

For the 1st time I did very specific predictions that became exactly true. I said at 11:55 AM that it would cross very near or over 55W 30N later this afternoon (and that sat. image shows that). I also said it would be named or numbered by 5 PM...which should happen now with the Invest renumber...

This wasn't a very glorious prediction...after all I only did it just hours before instead of days before...but I am still gettin myself a cookie...to get rid of the crow taste I got from some of the early storms this year...
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ATCF says its still hanging on as a TS, but I'm hoping the NHC has enough common sense to downgrade Hector to a TD at 5:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Felix2007 lol nice post on the 1926 storm. Haven't ever seen that path, very interesting.
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Quoting Felix2007:


xD That hurricane couldn't make up it's mind where to go
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Quoting floridaboy14:
i gotta agree with him cody. it will dissipate in about a day and everyone will be complaning for another storm to form :)

You obviously are clueless.

Just sayin'...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
SHIPS indicated TD 8 will be hit with 50 kts of shear in 4 days but before that conditions will be pretty favorable, possibly just long enough time in favorable conditions to become a hurricane.

Dry air isn't much of a problem anymore:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting gordydunnot:
After this season it appears the tropical Atlantic has jumped about 20 degrees north.

Nope
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.