The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tribucanes:
Dragod66, congrats, see you had your first doppelganger in chat today.


come to weather chat... ill tell ya all about it lol
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985. etxwx
More relief funding as tropical storm nears
Updated: 2012-08-15 09:18
BEIJING - China's ministries of finance and civil affairs on Tuesday jointly allocated 518 million yuan ($81.4 million) to back typhoon relief work as southeastern regions are expected to be hit by tropical storm Kai-tak in the next few days.
The money will be mainly used for living aid for local residents, the reconstruction of damaged houses and compensating bereaved families. It will cover areas in Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei and Hunan that have already been battered by typhoons.
The two ministries have poured 5.01 billion yuan into disaster relief funding so far this year.
Also on Tuesday, the National Commission for Disaster Reduction issued an early-warning plan at 2 pm to cope with potential losses to Kai-tak. The commission released an urgent circular urging civil affairs departments in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan to make precautionary arrangements for the evacuation of seriously hit areas -- especially tourist attractions, marine aquaculture spots and those vulnerable to landslides and floods.
These departments were also told to set up clear signs and arrange special inspection personnel around dangerous areas to warn off local people while ensuring order in shelters. Three consecutive typhoons that have hit Chinese coastal areas in the past two weeks had caused 51 deaths and left 21 people missing as of Monday, according to China's Ministry of Civil Affairs.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


971. pottery 2:52 AM GMT on August 15, 2012 +4
Quoting Grothar:


Hello, Wise One. The next few weeks could be interesting or boring it seems.
You are always so specific.
No perching on fences for you. :):))

And armed with your concise forecast, I will retire to my cosy bed.

Nite, all.



nite gentlemen see ya in the am



Nite KEEP
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Dragod66, congrats, see you had your first doppelganger in chat today.
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I believe even NOAA is still only calling for a weak to moderate El Nino. Unless they are wrong, too!

Link, Please!


Link



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Quoting kmanislander:
Time to turn in here. Busy day tomorrow. Keep the discussion going :-)

Good night all.


971. pottery 2:52 AM GMT on August 15, 2012 +4
Quoting Grothar:


Hello, Wise One. The next few weeks could be interesting or boring it seems.
You are always so specific.
No perching on fences for you. :):))

And armed with your concise forecast, I will retire to my cosy bed.

Nite, all.



nite gentlemen see ya in the am
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54853
Quoting Tribucanes:
Plenty to see coming up, promise. Some of this energy is going to sneak from the Caribbean to the Central Gulf and a growing blobette will be born with an ULLtoMLL forming. NHC forecast for peak season did change imo. While the early start was historic, we've evened that out with off of Africa storms being historically late. Hey this is the first time I think I've ever disagreed with Levi. :)


i think it will be slow to develop
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
It would make me VERY happy to have ten or more years of "boring" hurricane seasons!
Especially ones that do not include Ike or Irene like storms for the Bahamas and Turks.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22569
Plenty to see coming up, promise. Some of this energy is going to sneak from the Caribbean to the Central Gulf and a growing blobette will be born with an ULLtoMLL forming. NHC forecast for peak season did change imo. While the early start was historic, we've evened that out with off of Africa storms being historically late. Hey this is the first time I think I've ever disagreed with Levi. :)
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1059 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1055 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER ARCOLA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIRLIE...
LITTLETON...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3820
Quoting aspectre:
755 Grothar:
H storm or I storm?

G storm. 93L's gonna dawdle and dawdle and dawdle before being Named... if it gets Named.
Heck, it's still working its way outta 2011.
invest_al932012.invest 4KB 8/15/2011 12:33:00 AM



:) Now that is a long storm.
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Quoting Levi32:


The historical burst of storms in May and June is likely the reason. Their forecast for activity during the peak of the season didn't change.


That means the CV season will not be too active and those that may form will be going to the fishes or something may sneak into the NE Caribbean?
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755 Grothar: H storm or I storm?

G storm.* 93L's gonna dawdle and dawdle and dawdle before being Named... if it gets a name.
Heck, it's still working its way outta 2011 : invest_al932012.invest 4KB 8/15/2011 12:33:00AM

* Unless AL07 comes back from the dead first.
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not only is there not much to talk about...but looking forward we cant see anything....maybe being hot isnt the only thing that makes hurricanes....obviously that goes without saying...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Levi, why did the experts increased a little bit their August forecast numbers despite what you say about no lag?


The historical burst of storms in May and June is likely the reason. Their forecast for activity during the peak of the season didn't change.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hello, Wise One. The next few weeks could be interesting or boring it seems.

You are always so specific.
No perching on fences for you. :):))

And armed with your concise forecast, I will retire to my cosy bed.

Nite, all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to turn in here. Busy day tomorrow. Keep the discussion going :-)

Good night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
968. etxwx
Not a good year for food crops worldwide:
China warns of armyworm outbreak
Excerpt: BEIJING - China's agriculture authority on Tuesday warned local governments of an armyworm outbreak, pressing government departments to heed pest prevention and control advice to ensure grain security in the world's most populous nation. A spokesman for the Crop Production Department of the the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) said the recent outbreak of armyworms in major grain producing regions in northern and northeastern China has posed a severe threat to the production of corn and rice in the country. "We haven't seen such a pest plague in so many places in almost a decade," the spokesman said in a new brief on the MOA website.
Story continues here.
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168HR what is that on the CMC??
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Quoting pottery:

Greetings, Blob-Seeker.


Hello, Wise One. The next few weeks could be interesting or boring it seems.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is great. You have your entire life ahead of you. Do the best you can at what you love and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. Happiness and money will come your way if you do what you love and commit yourself to it.
Thanks that is what my mom said I want to be a meteorologist that work in tropical weather that is my dream.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
That just may be a "Glob"
....not a Blob

: )

......Glob = Geo
......Blob = Benthic


You mean you want me to start calling them geobenthic features? Not very scientific. :)
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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE CENTER
OF HECTOR EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN. AS THIS OCCURRED...THE CYCLONE MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS THAT
HECTOR HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT HECTOR WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY
SOON AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. AS HECTOR WEAKENS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL
POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting Grothar:


I never gave 93L much thought. Even before it emerged, I had written that it would never make it across the Atlantic and would curve to the NE eventually. I am currently doing an analysis on the entire Atlantic basin for the coming week. (That, and a few calls to my friends who tell me where these things are going :)


The people in high places lol.
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Right now, I believe we are still in ENSO neutral conditions, although most dynamic models are calling for a weak El Nino soon. I think it was just an off-blob season.
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Quoting Levi32:
There is no delay between the current El Nino and its effects on the Atlantic. This has been an El Nino-shaped season from Day 1. There is no lag.


Levi, why did the experts increased a little bit their August forecast numbers despite what you say about no lag?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Or it could go poof like 93L?


I never gave 93L much thought. Even before it emerged, I had written that it would never make it across the Atlantic and would curve to the NE eventually. I am currently doing an analysis on the entire Atlantic basin for the coming week. (That, and a few calls to my friends who tell me where these things are going :)
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.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I have not given a lot of thought to this but my initial reaction is that it may be tied to two things. Below average SST leads to lower thunderstorm activity associated with the ITCZ and the higher SSTs appear to be farther South than 10 to 12 degrees. The other factor contributing to this is the very dry air in the MDR where the ITCZ would be expected to situate itself. Dry air means less vertical instability which equates to below average thunderstorm activity that would pull the ITCZ Northward.

Just a couple of hypotheses on my part. I am not a climate scientist by any means but the dry sinking air suppresses thunderstorm activity which is the lifeblood of the ITCZ.


Appreciate your thoughts....
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93L has a lot of work to do.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
Quoting kmanislander:


I have not given a lot of thought to this but my initial reaction is that it may be tied to two things. Below average SST leads to lower thunderstorm activity associated with the ITCZ and the higher SSTs appear to be farther South than 10 to 12 degrees. The other factor contributing to this is the very dry air in the MDR where the ITCZ would be expected to situate itself. Dry air means less vertical instability which equates to below average thunderstorm activity that would pull the ITCZ Northward.

Just a couple of hypotheses on my part. I am not a climate scientist by any means but the dry sinking air suppresses thunderstorm activity which is the lifeblood of the ITCZ.

Thanks.
Sounds reasonable.
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62 wildfires blaze through Western U.S. states: fanned by strong winds and searing temps
Posted on August 14, 2012
August 14, 2012 – WASHINGTON – Whipped by high winds, a wildfire in central Washington state has scorched 26,500 acres and destroyed at least 60 homes, officials said Tuesday. The fire raging near Cle Elum is one of several devastating Western states this week. Colorado paid the price earlier this summer. Now, new wildfires are burning through sagebrush, grass and beetle-killed lodgepole pines in California, Oregon, Nevada, Washington and Idaho. In all, 62 fires, including 16 new large fires, were burning as of Tuesday, the U.S. Forest Service reported. They have destroyed dozens of homes and are threatening many more. Washington’s Taylor Bridge Fire began as a brush fire Monday afternoon. By midnight, it had swallowed up 16,000 acres, and by Tuesday, 16,500 acres, or 41 square miles, were burning. Authorities have already evacuated people near the Taylor Bridge Fire and called for more evacuations Tuesday, according to the Kittitas County Fire & Rescue District 7. CNN affiliate KING reported 400 homes have been evacuated as winds shifted, blowing toward several pockets of homes and subdivisions. In Idaho, a blaze has killed a 20-year-old firefighter. Two other firefighters have been injured in Oregon and California. Anne Veseth died Sunday while fighting the Steep Canyon Fire near Orofino, said Phil Sammon of the Forest Service. He said the death was accidental but could not confirm how it happened. However, CNN affiliate KTVB said Veseth was killed by a falling tree. Residents of Veseth’s hometown, Moscow, remembered the young college student as someone who always gave back to community. “This is a stark reminder of how dangerous the business is that we are in,” Sammon said. “We are extremely saddened by this loss.” Residents evacuate as hundreds of fire fighters battle California wildfires. On Tuesday, the fire danger spiked with searing temperatures and single-digit humidity across Western states. In some places, winds were gusting up to 40 miles per hour. -CNN
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
That just may be a "Glob"
....not a Blob

: )

Henceforth known as "Grothar's Glob".
Keep an eye on it, he has a way of influencing things....
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OK so i love how all day i want storms and im trying to go to sleep and my weather radio goes off saying Severe Tstorm in the area and my dad comes home through it and says for 15 seconds flat there were lightning strikes nonstop and the rest of the storm was nasty too... Great... right while im trying to sleep -_- haha
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3820
Quoting allancalderini:
High school I am 16 going to be 17 in November 1.:)


That is great. You have your entire life ahead of you. Do the best you can at what you love and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. Happiness and money will come your way if you do what you love and commit yourself to it.
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Quoting pottery:

You have any thoughts on the ITCZ being so far south as it crosses the sea to SA ?


I have not given a lot of thought to this but my initial reaction is that it may be tied to two things. Below average SST leads to lower thunderstorm activity associated with the ITCZ and the higher SSTs appear to be farther South than 10 to 12 degrees. The other factor contributing to this is the very dry air in the MDR where the ITCZ would be expected to situate itself. Dry air means less vertical instability which equates to below average thunderstorm activity that would pull the ITCZ Northward.

Just a couple of hypotheses on my part. I am not a climate scientist by any means but the dry sinking air suppresses thunderstorm activity which is the lifeblood of the ITCZ.
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New NASA satellites will tighten knowledge of Earth’s radiation belts
Posted on August 14, 2012
August 14, 2012 – SPACE - Surrounding our planet like vast invisible donuts (the ones with the hole, not the jelly-filled kind) are the Van Allen radiation belts, regions where various charged subatomic particles get trapped by Earth’s magnetic fields, forming rings of plasma. We know that the particles that make up this plasma can have nasty effects on spacecraft electronics as well as human physiology, but there’s a lot that isn’t known about the belts. Two new satellites, scheduled to launch on August 23, will help change that. “Particles from the radiation belts can penetrate into spacecraft and disrupt electronics, short circuits or upset memory on computers. The particles are also dangerous to astronauts traveling through the region. We need models to help predict hazardous events in the belts and right now we are aren’t very good at that. RBSP will help solve that problem,” said David Sibeck, RBSP project scientist, Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA’s Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) mission will put a pair of identical satellites into eccentric orbits that take them from as low as 375 miles (603 km) to as far out as 20,000 miles (32,186 km). During their orbits the satellites will pass through both the stable inner and more variable outer Van Allen belts, one trailing the other. Along the way they’ll investigate the many particles that make up the belts and identify what sort of activity occurs in isolated locations and across larger areas. The goal is to find out where the particles in the belts originate from — do they come from the solar wind? Or Earth’s own ionosphere? — as well as to find out what powers the belts’ variations in size and gives the particles their extreme speed and energy. Increased knowledge about Earth’s radiation belts will also help in the understanding of the plasma environment that pervades the entire Universe. Ultimately the information gathered by the RBSP mission will help in the design of future science and communications satellites as well as safer spacecraft for human explorers. The satellites are slated to launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station at 4:08 a.m. EDT on August 23. -Universe Today
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
That just may be a "Glob"
....not a Blob

: )

......Glob = Geo
......Blob = Benthic
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Quoting Grothar:
I don't care. That is a big disturbance. I may have to declare a blob even before it hits the Atlantic.

Or it could go poof like 93L?
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Quoting Grothar:
I don't care. That is a big disturbance. I may have to declare a blob even before it hits the Atlantic.


Greetings, Blob-Seeker.
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Quoting Levi32:
There is no delay between the current El Nino and its effects on the Atlantic. This has been an El Nino-shaped season from Day 1. There is no lag.
I will need to disagree with you in this one.
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every one keeps saying the slow season is due to "El Nino, La Nina, vertical shear, sal, etc etc etc.....". The reason is that Taz turned on the HARRP machine again. lol
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Quoting seer2012:
With the lessening moisture flow I would say what developes will not be as strong as what is going on there now.Quantitatively possibly less(guess)

Makes sense, particularly if the pattern you are seeing holds on the Indian side.
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I don't care. That is a big disturbance. I may have to declare a blob even before it hits the Atlantic.

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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


High School or College?
High school I am 16 going to be 17 in November 1.:)
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Quoting Levi32:
There is no delay between the current El Nino and its effects on the Atlantic. This has been an El Nino-shaped season from Day 1. There is no lag.



thank you am with you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
Quoting washingtonian115:
My three year old is sitting beside me and talking my ear off.A bunch of non sense.Lol.


It happens! But in the end, those are the good times. Life moves to fast to realize the smallest things that matter most. Enjoy them while you can! :)
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Quoting pottery:

You think it will be substantially less?
With the lessening moisture flow I would say what developes will not be as strong as what is going on there now.Quantitatively possibly less(guess)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
It would make me VERY happy to have ten or more years of "boring" hurricane seasons!

Amen!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Washingtonian my daughter is 3. :) Good times.
Mine is also a she.I brought her one of those dress play necklaces and she refused to take it off until I tricked her.Lol.She seems to be not forgetting that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.