The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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1136. JLPR2
00z GFS doesn't show this, but look at that, our currently humongous wave, which is inland in Africa, spinning in the CATL at 168hrs on the 00z EURO.


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Jelloboy that was the most backwards post I've read in awhile. While your right to an extent, the evacuation order was given when it looked like Charley could be a real killer to the St.Pete/Tampa area. By the time it was evident that Charley was going south, the evacuation order was long ago given. Most in Tampa/St.Pete know the precarious nature they live in; in regards to the danger of a Major making landfall. NHC are the best and there is no one credible to debate that. They have the best tools and brightest minds. Your slam of them, Jelloboy, is unfair, misplaced, and full of haterism. Go get your doctorate and do better or silence of the lambs.
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People that evacuated in the Tampa Bay area for Charley mostly went to Orlando -- where they were treated to a direct hit and 100mph winds and massive traffic jams as they tried to leave the hurricane struck area for their untouched homes. Anyone, and I mean anyone, that could read a basic weather map knew by late the night before the storm that it wasn't coming to Tampa and it hit well south of Tampa, that and the fact Charley was a really tiny hurricane meant much of the Tampa area had a few sprinkles. Good job hurricane forecasters, after many many years of bad evacuation orders it will come as no surprise when people don't leave in the future.
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Really curious to see if the other models will latch onto the GFS solution of a possible Gulf storm. It's about the only way I'll have a chase, so pardon me if my optimism is showing. ;)
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

As it makes landfall 00z GFS 183 Hrs


I really, really, really, want to see the ensemble members for this run...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Ah yes, active times. 2012 shouldn't be that intense, but we will probably see some action by that time frame this year.

I guess so.
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Blog update.
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Triple post, I'm inflating my post numbers; somewhere: Barry Bonds understands.
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1128. JLPR2
When one triple posts it means the blog is just too quiet. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Nuttin' for the GOM but something approaching east coast at the end of run.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
When the merge happens they'll have a regular moderator for the blogs I bet. Will be interesting to see how the blog changes then. An influx of hundreds if not thousands will be interesting to say the least. Pretty tight nit blog as is. Even those who ardently disagree on subjects are respectful to each other. Hard to find in America these days.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Mighty Felix & 4 duds.

I remember 2007 as the year of the promising AOI that never developed. There were about twice as many that year as there are most other years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1124. JLPR2
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000


Ah yes, active times. 2012 shouldn't be that intense, but we will probably see some action by that time frame this year.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1123. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
If this is you Jeff, should probably erase the comments confirming that. :) my grammatical disaster era had me raising my eyebrows.


Nope, I'm still me and as far as I know my name is not Jeff. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1122. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, you, Grothar, and Patrap would make excellent moderators here. Gro wouldn't do it, but you and Pat would be excellent for it.


Maybe we could persuade Gro. :P

I wouldn't mind doing it. But as many said already, they wouldn't like a regular blogger having that much power as they think biased decisions could occur.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When the blog merges with TWC I wonder if the blog will explode with new users. Most only care about the details of their day's weather. Wouldn't be shocked if the blog did little more that double or triple. Still will be cool to have more members and more points of views.
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1119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sorry not looking for a job

thanks all the same

anyway iam out see ya all sometime after sunrise
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this is you Jeff, should probably erase the comments confirming that. :) my grammatical disaster era had me raising my eyebrows.
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my grammar disaster era? Is this you Jeff? Most importantly, does your wife know your up blogging at this hour? :)
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Keeper, you, Grothar, and Patrap would make excellent moderators here. Gro wouldn't do it, but you and Pat would be excellent for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1115. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hey, its all about learning :D you should be proud of how much better you are


Yes, I do feel better when I consider that, I just feel sorry for everyone that had to suffer through my grammar disaster era.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1114. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93 is at 60 percent


Huzzah! Come on Gordon!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1113. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
You should be, lol, Jeff makes grammatical errors now very seldom. JLPR2, grammar as much as I love it, is no substitute for what Jeff knows as a climate scientist expert. Can't believe he has never had someone to do the grammatical check for him through all these years. A real do-it-yourselfer. I will go back and read blogs of his from the era, and like you, I'll cringe too. Good grammar conveys a strong message too. Jeff is so sharp in advanced sciences and math that we should forgive his occasional grammatical mistake. Was going to go to bed but my woman and me daughter are hogging the entire bed. Two cats have gotten comfortable too. Dastardly.


Ha!

But Jeff having a grammar error here and there is understandable. He probably has many other things to do and still finds the time to write blog after blog for our enjoyment. :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
93 is at 60 percent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
Quoting JLPR2:


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!


Hey, its all about learning :D you should be proud of how much better you are
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
1109. JLPR2
The two last TWs basically shut down after emerging, but are eliminating the SAL from the area, giving the huge one inland a shot at development.



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
You should be, lol, Jeff makes grammatical errors now very seldom. JLPR2, grammar as much as I love it, is no substitute for what Jeff knows as a climate scientist expert. Can't believe he has never had someone to do the grammatical check for him through all these years. A real do-it-yourselfer. I will go back and read blogs of his from the era, and like you, I'll cringe too. Good grammar conveys a strong message too. Jeff is so sharp in advanced sciences and math that we should forgive his occasional grammatical mistake. Was going to go to bed but my woman and me daughter are hogging the entire bed. Two cats have gotten comfortable too. Dastardly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1107. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Link it :p


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
Was reading the comments of one of Dr. Masters entries in 2009 of 94L (PRE-Felix) and dang, I was a complete orthography eyesore. Bad punctuation, no commas, no capital letters and writing ridiculously obvious things...

Now I'm angry at myself. XD



Link it :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
1105. JLPR2
Was reading the comments of one of Dr. Masters entries in 2009 of 94L (PRE-Felix) and dang, I was a complete orthography eyesore. Bad punctuation, no commas, no capital letters and writing ridiculously obvious things...

Now I'm angry at myself. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Goodnight all, still think 93L is confused about which way to go.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Either way, everyone's entitled to their opinions. Really headed out now. Goodnight you fine bloggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please troller on antitruth meds, please ignore me. :)
Couldn't tell if you were serious in your prior post, so this post is only serious if you were. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


With slight variations the GFS has been on this scenario for days. I wonder if the other models will come on board or continue to differ. What I haven't read is that the GFS is suffering feedback issues like before Debby. lol. What little that's been said about it is cautiously keeping an eye on things. :)

Maybe the GFS Excels with CFI, because it predicted Debby would hit Florida and stuck to its prediction 10 days out
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1100. JLPR2
Hmm from what I read and saw from a old entry from Dr. Masters. 1991, 1994, 2002 and 2004 were Modiki El NIño years or as he refers to them: CPW(Central Pacific warming) years.

If our new trend holds and the eastern pacific area region: 1+2 continues to cool we could get one of these rare Modikis.



The entry is from 2009 if anyone wants to give it a look.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Altestic2012:
Tribucanes...stop whining about trolls, or get ignored. We're talking about ENSO right now. :-) Not GW.....


This coming from the guy who just posted: As the PDOs continue to be cool, El Ninos will be less frequent, Al Gore's theory will die and people will go back to complaining that we're causing global freezing and bringing us back into an ige age. :-)

Not trying to be insulting, just pointing something out.

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What happens with the tropics chat?
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Anyway, I'm out. Goodnight, all.
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Btw, the latest update from CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.8C. Should easily top 1.0C by the end of the month, just from judging the anomalies.

Edit: Australian BOM has Nino 3.4 at 0.9C, up 0.2C from their last update 2 weeks ago.

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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Goodnight all!!


Night neighbor. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting TXCWC:


Sure not sure if you wanted the entire sight but here you go...Link ...GFS is under Operational Models on right of pg. Once you click on op run you want to look at (ie 0Z, ect...) you can scroll dwn to Day 1-5 precip, ect... to look at various 5 day precip totals...hope that helps :)


Yes that helps alot, i'll have to bookmark it, thanks!
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

looks like it moves slowly westward then gets shunted southwest by that High pressure


With slight variations the GFS has been on this scenario for days. I wonder if the other models will come on board or continue to differ. What I haven't read is that the GFS is suffering feedback issues like before Debby. lol. What little that's been said about it is cautiously keeping an eye on things. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Goodnight all!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1091. TXCWC
Quoting SouthCentralTx:


Can you please give me the link for this? I have been looking for a map like this but can't. Thanks


Sure not sure if you wanted the entire sight but here you go...Link ...GFS is under Operational Models on right of pg. Once you click on op run you want to look at (ie 0Z, ect...) you can scroll dwn to Day 1-5 precip, ect... to look at various 5 day precip totals...hope that helps :)
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Goodnight all, keep on keeping on Kori.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


2006 is probably the best recent analog. It has been a long time since we have had a strongly negative PDO, a warm AMO and an El Nino. We are just now getting into a pattern where cold PDOs will be more prevalent. 2006 had a very weakly negative PDO, as well as similar anomalies in the Atlantic and Nino regions. It is difficult to sniff out what to expect with all of these variables that come into play. We would have to go back to the 50s to probably sniff out the best analogs for this season.

2012


2006

PDO's aren't a year-to-year thing like ENSO. PDO's last about 30-40 years. 2005 might have been the transitional year, it's tough to say because we headed right into an El Nino the year after. In that case it is reasonable to assume that 1933 (not coincidentally the last hyperactive hurricane season before 2005) was the last year we began the transition into the last cold PDO.

As the PDOs continue to be cool, El Ninos will be less frequent, Al Gore's theory will die and people will go back to complaining that we're causing global freezing and bringing us back into an ige age. :-)
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WU takes the time to get the truth and get it right when dealing with the troll community. Can't wait till they can almost instantly zap em'.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
WU really needs to get a hold of their blog site. Too many bad things happening with the trolls posting porn, perpetrating as others, apparently getting real members in trouble, and just generally being idiot jerks causing ruckus. Hope they find the cash for moderators and get a handle on these fools sooner than later.


Im sure there are many upstanding members of this blog who would volunteer as a moderator....and perform that duty without bias!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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