The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning. Except for the low shear and warm sst's, the Central Atlantic still looks like a dry desert with lots of SAL and a non-existent ITCZ. Looks more like October than mid-August. Only exception is the wave in the Northern part on the verge of TD status.
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Quoting Msdrown:
Good Morning all, a few questions. The TWC just mentioned a new weather expert named Dr. Postel. Does anybody know this guy pro or con???
He's legitimate, AFAIK.
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Looks like we might have a hurricane later this week according to some models. And it could hit the Azores.
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1183. Msdrown
Good Morning all, a few questions. The TWC just mentioned a new weather expert named Dr. Postel. Does anybody know this guy pro or con???

TWC says Hernesto/Ernie may be headed NE back across MEX and into the BOC. Thats as far as they went. Any thoughts?

The local NOLA mets said the blob in MEX/GOM w may send some moisture there way but nothing else. Thoughts??

I noticed the dry air from the Sahara is shrinking. Can we expect our normal Aug/Sep wave train to pic up with REAL developing storms now???
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Quoting westernmob:
Methinks Dr. Masters is wishful thinking on a hurricane hit in Tampa, given his political leanings.

Which is why he gave it a 0.2% chance of occurring, right?

Give us a break..
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Hi people I see we must likely will have td 8 for this afternoon.wish me luck for my junior year:) I start classes today.
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Persistent high pressure over the Desert SW will back off enough to allow this front to sink a far south as our area, we believe, before stalling out Saturday to Sunday. Odds for rain have improved to 30-40% over the weekend. And that's not all: a wealth of moisture in Mexico will probably combine with a tropical wave nearing the West Gulf, and it could all amount to several rounds of seabreeze type rain sweeping into our area from the coast early next week.

Best Weather News in over a month here, goodbye to 100 degree temps for several days due to clouds and chances of much needed rain for South Central Texas.
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93L







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1177. SLU
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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This one could be threatening the Azore Islands as a weakening hurricane. Talk about rare.



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Quoting Wunderwood:
Largo, why do you continue to post your local weather information? If we want to see it, then we can go to the local weather at the top of the page.

Did you think.... Maybe people don't know where to find this information.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Largo, why do you continue to post your local weather information? If we want to see it, then we can go to the local weather at the top of the page.
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My New Video Blog For Wednesday Link
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Looks like the gfs has backed off the low doing anything in the Boc.Makes sense this wave will be in southern Mexico by tomorrow. 06 run
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Quoting angelafritz:


It's all about finding the things you need in a form that you like. Data is data.


Hi Angela,

What's the best text book of which you are aware for someone with a computer science/programming bent to learn the basics of weather modelling?

In my current job I've been learning practical, hands-on strategies for using neural networks predictively and I'd like to apply it to my amateur interest in tropical meteorology.

It's hard to find the data you want when you're not totally clear about what you need.
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Good morning. Still looking like Kai-Tak will make landfall very close to Hong Kong as a typhoon:




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1168. LargoFl

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
504 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS
POINT...ESCATAWPA...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 456 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND
THE COAST...MAINLY FROM OCEAN SPRINGS EASTWARD. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THIS AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GULF PARK
ESTATES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.



LAT...LON 3034 8840 3035 8843 3031 8847 3031 8850
3033 8852 3033 8857 3036 8862 3034 8874
3037 8881 3042 8887 3042 8888 3054 8840
3035 8839

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
1167. LargoFl
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...

ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.A RATHER PERSISTENT WET PATTERN HAS PROVIDED RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED RAINS ARE PREVENTING THE ST. MARKS RIVER FROM
FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS... AND HISTORICAL CREST INFORMATION FOR
ALL FORECAST POINTS BY CLICKING ON EACH POINT.

&&

FLC129-160142-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120818T0000Z/
/NEPF1.1.ER.120808T1800Z.120810T2000Z.120817T1800 Z.NO/
1024 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD
MAGNOLIA RD...
* UNTIL FRIDAY.
* AT 9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN STEADY NEAR 7.2 FEET THROUGH
TOMORROW...THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.

&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN

ST. MARKS RIVER
NEWPORT ON 7 7.2 TUE 09 PM 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8


$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I don't think I would trust another Republican President to forecast the weather, ever again.



Actually, an arguably obscure forecast was made just three weeks before Katrina hit.

It was a rather odd thing to say to the most technologically advanced entity on earth, perhaps suggesting that our own intelligent design would soon fail a certain way?

Make no mistake, the "sign of Jonah" is a paradoxical weather forecast of a specific type. Hurricane Katrina would become the worst ocean storm in modern U.S. history, and many people would drown, while the Bush "whale" would do little to help them, despite his supposedly "Christian" ethic.[Post 570]

Interestingly, three years later, a similar forecast would be made on the same exact forum, by the same forecaster, arguably drawing a map of where another NASA facility would be directly hit. Those are curious odds, especially if you consider that "Ike" founded NASA.











You are not the brightest crayon in the box are you? You ever trust anyone other thant the National Hurricane center for weather advise? What you mean you will never trust another republican for weather advise, you mean that during Katrina you listen to Bush? Well I would advise you not to Listen to them for Financial Advise neither. I mean look at the Trillion dollar deficit the country is in since Bush and Obama Have been in power. Keep depending so much in government.
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1165. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
1164. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
1163. LargoFl
......................................good morning folks...another hot and normal florida day shaping up here..yes the morning few storms along the coast..moving inland in the afternoon..the normal stuff and the rain we can always use huh....have a wonderful day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
1162. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
excatly largo because people are killing me saying that the season is over. i bet if we get an irene or ike situation watch how the season end report is gonna be. sometimes i wonder about certain people who get on here largo
..yeah some here are young, we must remember that, all they want to see are these monster storms..like watching a sci-fi movie..when theres nothing on..they get bored
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
1161. LargoFl
Quoting Jelloboy:
People that evacuated in the Tampa Bay area for Charley mostly went to Orlando -- where they were treated to a direct hit and 100mph winds and massive traffic jams as they tried to leave the hurricane struck area for their untouched homes. Anyone, and I mean anyone, that could read a basic weather map knew by late the night before the storm that it wasn't coming to Tampa and it hit well south of Tampa, that and the fact Charley was a really tiny hurricane meant much of the Tampa area had a few sprinkles. Good job hurricane forecasters, after many many years of bad evacuation orders it will come as no surprise when people don't leave in the future.
..I remember that!!..something inside me said stay home that day..so i did..and was very thankful i did too, wasnt all that bad here, some of my neighbors who fled to orlando, came back with horror stories..my wife looked at me and smiled..we did the right thing and she nodded..you were right..thank you
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting LargoFl:
..good point made, and your right..its been a very active season so far, yes we are in a lull right now which is great because we need a breather, but we still have months to go and the waters are perking hot..and sept is coming
excatly largo because people are killing me saying that the season is over. i bet if we get an irene or ike situation watch how the season end report is gonna be. sometimes i wonder about certain people who get on here largo
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1159. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
Just looking at some people pressuring about this season is crazy! We are well ahead of time with some of these storms as far as names. Normally the G or H storms normally not suppose to be here until september. For us to be almost at G in a few days or hours would be called an active season already. I think everyone needs to calm down and remember its only august 15th folks and theres a lot thats gonna happen between now and late september to early october. I just feel people are jumping the gun saying that the season is over. Like the old times say: Never say Never! and it only takes one storm to say it was a bad season! Maybe this will help some people out again
..good point made, and your right..its been a very active season so far, yes we are in a lull right now which is great because we need a breather, but we still have months to go and the waters are perking hot..and sept is coming
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Just looking at some people pressuring about this season is crazy! We are well ahead of time with some of these storms as far as names. Normally the G or H storms normally not suppose to be here until september. For us to be almost at G in a few days or hours would be called an active season already. I think everyone needs to calm down and remember its only august 15th folks and theres a lot thats gonna happen between now and late september to early october. I just feel people are jumping the gun saying that the season is over. Like the old times say: Never say Never! and it only takes one storm to say it was a bad season! Maybe this will help some people out again
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1157. pcola57


Lightening show woke me early this am..
Going back to bed..need all the beauty sleep I can get.. :)
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1156. pcola57
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I agree. Believe it or not, there are actually a lot of people in the US and in the world who are apolitical, in general terms. Such people have not fallen for or fallen into the divide and control mind program and thus are independent thinkers who generally do not belong to any political party or ascribe to any particular political ideology.

Non-political people also usually learn to respect the views of others, even when these views or opinions do not conform to their own ideas and opinions (gasp!).
And people like this usually prefer not to argue with anyone about politics, regardless of the nature or degree of expressed feelings and opinions, on any subject. Instead, they would rather discuss other things and in a friendly and non-argumentative manner, again seeking to respect a wide variety of viewpoints and opinions.

For such persons, the subject of the potential risk of a hurricane striking a given location at the proposed time for a political convention taking place at that location does not bring forth any desires to inject political ideology into the discussion in any form or fashion, mainly because the subject at hand relates to meteorology and not political ideology. Hard to believe for some I suppose but there are a lot of people who fit this general description.


Well put FLWaterFront..
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AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081006, , BEST, 0, 155N, 188W, 30, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 160N, 206W, 30, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 167N, 218W, 25, 1007, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 230W, 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 245W, 25, 1010, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 190N, 273W, 25, 1011, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081118, , BEST, 0, 195N, 293W, 25, 1012, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081200, , BEST, 0, 202N, 314W, 25, 1013, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081206, , BEST, 0, 205N, 336W, 25, 1014, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081212, , BEST, 0, 207N, 355W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081218, , BEST, 0, 211N, 372W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081300, , BEST, 0, 215N, 391W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081306, , BEST, 0, 220N, 412W, 25, 1012, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 225N, 433W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081318, , BEST, 0, 230N, 452W, 25, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081400, , BEST, 0, 235N, 470W, 20, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081406, , BEST, 0, 240N, 488W, 20, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081412, , BEST, 0, 245N, 505W, 25, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081418, , BEST, 0, 250N, 519W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081500, , BEST, 0, 254N, 530W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081506, , BEST, 0, 261N, 539W, 25, 1014, LO,

93L is now a low again! Not a wave anymore!
By the way, the above is the ATCF history of 93L.
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......
Hector... not so good at this moment... but getting better.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1000.4mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.8


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Code red 93L.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting bigwes6844:
i see the wave on africa look good lets see if it holds
What a beast, actually I hope it does, so we can have something to track!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628




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i see the wave on africa look good lets see if it holds
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good morning blog! just got off and still see 93L tryna hang on for dear life.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Good night, JLPR!

Is anyone from the East Coast? It would be surprising to see someone up at 3 am (EDT).

Well, it's 4:10 pm here. Heavy rain in Seoul.
Im not from the East Coast but I tell you this rain has been something else.
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Quoting JLPR2:
240hrs GFS vs EURO





Hmm... Wonder which one is right, or maybe neither.

Well, that's it for me. Goodnight everyone!

Good night, JLPR!

Is anyone from the East Coast? It would be surprising to see someone up at 3 am (EDT).

Well, it's 4:10 pm here. Heavy rain in Seoul.
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1143. JLPR2
240hrs GFS vs EURO





Hmm... Wonder which one is right, or maybe neither.

Well, that's it for me. Goodnight everyone!
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1142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (T1213)
15:00 PM JST August 15 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (990 hPa) located at 18.7N 120.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.2N 116.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 22.3N 113.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
72 HRS: 23.1N 109.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
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93L is 25 kt 1014 mb according to 06UTC ATCF.
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G'night AtHomeInTexas, your a great blogger. Never once, have I heard you with a cross word for anyone. Late crew wouldn't be the same without you. :)
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G'night.
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1138. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Alright, exhaustion is winning the battle. G'night whomever's left here. WU is my social entertainment, I really need to get out more. :)


Night!
I'll probably stay until the EURO finishes running.
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Alright, exhaustion is winning the battle. G'night whomever's left here. WU is my social entertainment, I really need to get out more. :)
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1136. JLPR2
00z GFS doesn't show this, but look at that, our currently humongous wave, which is inland in Africa, spinning in the CATL at 168hrs on the 00z EURO.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.