The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?


^^^

This is the kind of comment this sort of blog topic brings.

Would love to see the roles reversed here and then see what libs would say about conservatives "hoping for a hurricane to ruin their convention."
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
93L up to 50%.
lets not forget 93L is headed into cooler waters and you know what That does to a tropical system
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36850
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol NHC inverted colours on the map



on other note EX TD7 is really looking good such a shame it will head into land later but you never know it could use that energy very soon and try to develop before landfall (I AM NOT SAYING IT WILL, I AM JUST SAYING IT COULD HAPPEN SO DON'T SAY "MAN YOU STILL ON ABOUT THIS AGAIN" CAUSE I AM NOT)



whats drop Ex 7 its this a open wave wish has likey made land fall by now or is going too later



EX TD 7 is DONE! OVERE !
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Quoting LargoFl:
..93L is a british isles worry, not ours, the high out there is too strong for it to keep going west towards the USA



yes, I noticed the models pointing that thing this way! Yes, I'm in Wales, so we can get the brunt of them when the remnants get here along with Cornwall/Devon or Ireland. Gets crazy where I live as I'm in the coastal mountains, weeeeee LOL


Man, how cool would it be to see a hurricane from above like that?!
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Largo, don't forget there are bloggers here that live in Europe, some of them may have the potential to get impacted on our "fish" storms.
yes i know and by them reading in our blog they now know what storm to watch for and maybe be prepared for it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36850
130. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol NHC inverted colours on the map



on other note EX TD7 is really looking good such a shame it will head into land later but you never know it could use that energy very soon and try to develop before landfall (I AM NOT SAYING IT WILL, I AM JUST SAYING IT COULD HAPPEN SO DON'T SAY "MAN YOU STILL ON ABOUT THIS AGAIN" CAUSE I AM NOT)


Nah, it's basically inland.

ON the other hand, 93L is recovering nicely. Its 850mb vort made a good comeback.

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lol NHC inverted colours on the map



on other note EX TD7 is really looking good such a shame it will head into land later but you never know it could use that energy very soon and try to develop before landfall (I AM NOT SAYING IT WILL, I AM JUST SAYING IT COULD HAPPEN SO DON'T SAY "MAN YOU STILL ON ABOUT THIS AGAIN" CAUSE I AM NOT)
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Thanks Jeff,
And I agree, putting the question forward along with context of historical perspective certainly is valid.

re: #17 and #38 Neapolitan
Oh my, the shock... I wholeheartedly agree!

Guess we might also ponder the chance Tampa will have an early season cold front pass either before or by time of the convention... viewing the trends lately of the 6-10 day / 8-14 day outlooks from CPC...

And from previous, #176. AussieStorm
Sleep well, Aussie... thanks for lightening up the mood... enjoyed your Moojita scale!

Brought to mind an observation made during the worst of Gustav - with calamity in full force, winds reaching 100 mph, trees getting ripped and shredded (along with our building), debris flying all over - I happened to peer over into the adjacent cow pasture... and there they were, the cows just happily grazing along, nose into the hurricane winds like was just a breeze, seemingly shrugging it off as just another day... Hey, a cow gotta do what a cow gotta do...
;)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i missed it...what was it.


NHC messed up the colors on the Graphical TWO. 50% was a yellow circle and 10% was an orange circle.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..93L is a british isles worry, not ours, the high out there is too strong for it to keep going west towards the USA


Largo, don't forget there are bloggers here that live in Europe, some of them may have the potential to get impacted on our "fish" storms.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well, looks like SOMEBODY got a hold of the crayons and wasn't paying attention!

At least it was quickly fixed!



i missed it...what was it.
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Quoting Coastalgramps:
Looks like 93L is going to pump the ridge and keep going West.
I suppose it can then bust the trough and head straight for NYC.
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Well, looks like SOMEBODY got a hold of the crayons and wasn't paying attention!

At least it was quickly fixed!

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I'm telling you the NHC must look at this site, look at how quickly they fixed their mistake.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:Lots of dry air for 93L to contend with.


Yep. Keeps pulling in dry air every time the surface convergence increases in response to improved organization. Then convection dies out/outflow disrupts the circulation a bit.

Much better looking than yesterdays similar cycle though.


MIMIC TPW shows a classic inverted V wave formation. No closed circulation as of yet.
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Quoting VR46L:


Can you clarify my Question? post 45


Yes, sure. The AOI in the central Atlantic is 93L. There are no other disturbances there.
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Aaaaaaand the NHC has done it again!!.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL look what the nhc did




woopsie!
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Quoting Grothar:
I have some home pictures of Tampa and Ybor city of my mother's family. There is only one of my mother as a young girl after the 1921 hurricane with her sister. The other is Tampa in 1926. They were leaving that week for Miami. Of course you know what happened to Miami in 1926??? I am still looking for those photos.

I thought you might get a kick out of these.




Our mother is on the left. They left for Miami shortly after this.





Cool pics Grothar...those are treasures.
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
115. VR46L
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Great guess! Here's your cookie!



Can you clarify my Question? post 45
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
LOL look what the nhc did


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
99. Grothar

Thanks for sharing the pics Grothar!
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hmmmm...50% chance on something that was declared dead. Not bad odds if you ask me.
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OOOPSS!
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110. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You live in the UK?


The Republic Of Ireland
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

TWO: Forecast
ex-07L - 10%
93L - 50%


Great guess! Here's your cookie!

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I have my own bad weather to contend with today.A 5 percent chance of a tornado threat that's interesting....It is rather humid outside with a temp of 95 degrees....
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Quoting VR46L:


Its a worry for me ....
You live in the UK?
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93L up to 50%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

TWO: Forecast
ex-07L - 10%
93L - 50%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND
MASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.



you win a cookie for binging right
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes i agree with you on this and in no way am i repub..I dont think we are on the edge of doom, not from pollution anyway, now over population, deletion of needed resources, and the scarcity of clean drinking water..now THAT may be what future generations may well face for real I think..but in my lifetime..no, dont think the years i have left will see any of it, just the scare talk to get more taxes etc


Exactly. I've seen models that show the world economy collapsing severely due to resource exhaustion by 2030. That's sooner and (easier to believe) then a forecast by some that the world sea level will be exactly 4 feet higher in 100 years, and that we need to start building coastal structures to adjust to that. Excuse me. They can't even get a 72 hour forecast right and think we should believe a 100 year forecast as gospel? lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND
MASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND
MASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have some home pictures of Tampa and Ybor city of my mother's family. There is only one of my mother as a young girl after the 1921 hurricane with her sister. The other is Tampa in 1926. They were leaving that week for Miami. Of course you know what happened to Miami in 1926??? I am still looking for those photos.

I thought you might get a kick out of these.




Our mother is on the left. They left for Miami shortly after this.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
Deleted
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Quoting VR46L:


Its a worry for me ....


no need to worry....
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Quoting LargoFl:
..93L is a british isles worry, not ours, the high out there is too strong for it to keep going west towards the USA


Its a worry for me ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
I give 93L will have a 85 percent chance of ever developing.
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Lots of dry air for 93L to contend with.
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Quoting StormHype:


I would label them as 'deniers'. Most people I know accept climate change as real, but don't buy the liberal notion that mankind is at the root cause and that they have all the answers to 'fix' it. Mount St Helens spewed enough green house gases to match 300 years of mankind's production CO2 in the course of 2 only years.... and that was a 100% natural event. It seems more likely that science foundations and universities that survive on research grants are just trying to scare the masses that doom is imminent, we are the cause, and they have the answers.... we just have to keep shoveling them money so they can keep their jobs and they will save us. Yeah, right. It's all politics.
..yes i agree with you on this and in no way am i repub..I dont think we are on the edge of doom, not from pollution anyway, now over population, deletion of needed resources, and the scarcity of clean drinking water..now THAT may be what future generations may well face for real I think..but in my lifetime..no, dont think the years i have left will see any of it, just the scare talk to get more taxes etc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36850
Quoting kwgirl:
Leave it to you Nea to point out that the holier-than-thou people have faults like everyone else. They just have more money to spend!


It is a fact that during every major political party convention the less-than-savory business model in the affected area spikes dramatically.

It is probably true though that the Republican conventions are the most profitable for this sort of thing simply because there is likely to be more money floating around with them than there is with the Dems.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like another entity in SW Caribbean might be merging with ex TD7


maybe this is what the GFS was picking up on...
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It seems there is a small high building over 93L. But it is hard to go against the model consensus. But it's happened before.Turn should happen today or tonight at the latest.
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Quoting bio4:
Seeing as how the largest representation of climate change deniers are from the Republican camp, they should be the last to be evacuated from the Tampa area in the event of a hit by a major hurricane.


I wouldn't label them as 'deniers'. Most people I know accept climate change as real, but don't mindlessly buy the liberal notion that mankind is at the root cause and that they have all the answers to 'fix' it. Mount St Helens spewed enough green house gases to match 300 years of mankind's production CO2 in the course of just 2 years.... and that was a 100% natural event. It seems more likely that science foundations (govt or otherwise) and universities that survive on research grants are just trying to scare the masses that doom is imminent, we are the cause, and they have the answers.... we just have to keep shoveling them money so they can keep their jobs and they will save us. Yeah, right. It's all politics.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, convection has weakened some. But the overall structure is looking a lot better. Should begin to re-fire soon.

TWO: Forecast
ex-07L - 10%
93L - 50%
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Convection has waned, a little though...
NHC will go with 50%


Yeah, convection has weakened some. But the overall structure is looking a lot better. Should begin to re-fire soon.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Imagine that. While I was working, Dr. M was working on the answer to the question he posed concerning Tampa, a hurricane and the RNC. So I go into the previous blog to check it out, put some person on ignore and I come back with this. So I am torn. Do I stay here or go back to the old one to read up. I might have to put more people on ignore if I do that LOL!



aha, so glad i saw this comment when i came on...

there is no point to just ignoring people like that....i really dont see the point.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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