The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
202 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEZ002-MDZ015-020-141900-
CAROLINE MD-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNE`S MD-
202 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT AND QUEEN ANNE`S
COUNTIES...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HOPE...CARVILLE AROUND 215
PM...CHURCH HILL...GOLDSBORO AROUND 230 PM...BARCLAY AND SUDLERSVILLE
AROUND 245 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3924 7594 3926 7586 3924 7579 3914 7562
3891 7594 3892 7595 3894 7608 3899 7616

$$

KRUZDLO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting ncstorm:


my comment is there for you to read in case you want to read the current blog..but I will answer your question anyway, of course I wouldnt want the DNC convention to be cancelled..good substance there..big difference..

sorry everyone..didnt mean to interrupt the blog with tit for tat..


Lol. Wow, this is one of the top most ridiculous things I've read here. Sure sounds like you would be happy to have someone's city ruined as long as it ruined the convention of a party you do not agree with on politics. Only the dems have anything of substance? This is also an ignorant statement. I do not agree with dems, but I realize that they have better ideas than repubs on some issues. I'm really shocked and disappointed in your method of thinking.

Is there any doubt as to why our country is going to hell in a hand basket? People would go to any extreme to see the other political party fail. What a sad state for our country.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
should be close to TD.. it has a good spin




the low may not be close yet it may still be open when i look at 93L this AM it was neary a open wave now it has some good spin back too it
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEC001-003-MDC011-029-035-142130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0150.120814T1828Z-120814T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-CAROLINE MD-QUEEN ANNE`S MD-
228 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
EAST CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
NORTHERN KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
NORTHERN CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...
EASTERN QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AROUND AN INCH, IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 7557 3942 7553 3937 7551 3932 7543
3929 7543 3926 7539 3924 7539 3892 7595
3892 7597 3914 7615

$$

KRUZDLO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting gordydunnot:
I'm betting the Doc will do a hurricane blog for the DNC he's just that kind of guy fair and balanced. He reports you decide. I'm just wondering how he is going to put a pro liberal spin on it, can't wait. Like I predicted this morning 93l g
Ever been to Ann Arbor? that would be a clue..oes code Red, 70% I say.
http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar /WUNIDS_map?station=BMX&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15& type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&t=1335389 823&lat=33.43900681&lon=-86.10092163&label=Tallade ga, AL&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400&ce ntery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0& rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1
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should be close to TD.. it has a good spin
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is very rude and unnecessary. Just sit back and take a drink and cool off, we still have plenty of more waves that will roll off Africa and track towards the Caribbean where they will have a chance at developing and maybe one will come your way.




thank you that was vary rude of him
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I see you don't have a confidence issue ;)
I am confident that I know the subset math science of probability analysis better than most other oddsmakers. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do know the proper odds to place on events. Folks pay for my opinion so you could call me a pro.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I don't over hype a lot of storm at all

plus TAZ. I did not say that EX-TD7 will redevelop. dummy maybe if you sit down, keep quiet, and read more, you will clearly see I said it could happen (meaning that there is a possiblity of it happening) not that it will happen or is happening (meaning that is is happening now it is currently doing it)
That is very rude and unnecessary. Just sit back and take a drink and cool off, we still have plenty of more waves that will roll off Africa and track towards the Caribbean where they will have a chance at developing and maybe one will come your way.
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Quoting kwgirl:
When I lived in Scotland in the late 70's during the winter there was ALWAYS a gale force 8 or 9 blowing in the North Sea. Ireland being the first of the Islands to the east of the US must see a lot more storms pounding on your doorstep during the summer.


I know another photographer who lives in Galway, he said it gets mad on the west coast sometimes!

My closest photographer friend works on an oil rig in the North Sea, says sometimes he gets staff coming in for seasickness medicine it can get so bad during big storms LOL
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No... I am pretty sure you said it would happen... maybe like 100 times.



thank you vary marh
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NO IT IS NOT DONE AND NOT OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not over till there is no tropical wave left

AND IT IS SPELT O V E R NOT O V R E LOL!!!

and also EX-TD7 could relocate to the E I noticed the vort increasing just E of the EX-TD's vort and EX-TD's vort decreasing could mean relocation there both conected so it could



Dude... Give it up... 07L is dead and gone... Maybe it'll meet up with something in the GOM and develop then. But it isn't developing in the Caribbean. Just admit you were wrong, like I do a lot, and don't scream and yell about it. All it does is make you look bad and then people want to ignore you.

Keep Calm and Forecast On!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I don't over hype a lot of storm at all

plus TAZ. I did not say that EX-TD7 will redevelop. dummy maybe if you sit down, keep quiet, and read more, you will clearly see I said it could happen (meaning that there is a possiblity of it happening) not that it will happen or is happening (meaning that is is happening now it is currently doing it)



are you trying too pick a fight with me by saying site down and keep quite ?
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the 12z GFS..that rain event is expanding into texas

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Quoting ncstorm:


my comment is there for you to read in case you want to read the current blog..but I will answer your question anyway, of course I wouldnt hope for the DNC convention to be cancelled..good substance there..big difference..

sorry everyone..didnt mean to interrupt the blog with tit for tat..


You just made his point for him...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I don't over hype a lot of storm at all

plus TAZ. I did not say that EX-TD7 will redevelop. dummy maybe if you sit down, keep quiet, and read more, you will clearly see I said it could happen (meaning that there is a possiblity of it happening) not that it will happen or is happening (meaning that is is happening now it is currently doing it)


No... I am pretty sure you said it would happen... maybe like 100 times.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Did you "hope" for it to happen in this current blog?


my comment is there for you to read in case you want to read the current blog..but I will answer your question anyway, of course I wouldnt hope for the DNC convention to be cancelled..good substance there..big difference..

sorry everyone..didnt mean to interrupt the blog with tit for tat..
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167. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
When I lived in Scotland in the late 70's during the winter there was ALWAYS a gale force 8 or 9 blowing in the North Sea. Ireland being the first of the Islands to the east of the US must see a lot more storms pounding on your doorstep during the summer.


Trust me apart from ernesto this year remnants of all 4 other storms this year turned up ... the flooding in the UK in June was thanks in part to Chris the fish lol.Anything that turns up in the Atlantic does play a part in our weather. thankfully so far no true cane has ever hit but there is always a first time
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
166. TXCWC
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Very similar with 93L as well, good to know we have consensus with our 2 best models :)


EURO day 5...IS THAT A LOW I SEE JUST OFF SHORE OF MEXICO IN THE BOC? Coming a bit more in agreement with GFS?

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank you.
I wasn't expecting a quiz from the Doc but it's no great surprise that I was right. I do help set the odds or probabilities on various events on other sites.


I see you don't have a confidence issue ;)
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Quoting LargoFl:
..and what..did i say wrong here?..IF i had said its headed to FLORIDA..would floridians be offended?, forewarned is forearmed..better they understand there IS a chance this comes to them..


Not JFV! He would be delighted.

Anyways, NHC is sticking with the idea 93L will head NW eventually..then to Europe.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks Dr. Master

Cos, you sure called it! Way to Go!
Thank you.
I wasn't expecting a quiz from the Doc but it's no great surprise that I was right. I do help set the odds or probabilities on various events on other sites.
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93L is a fine looking invest the only thing I can think is after 07 fizzled so quickly , they want to wait on more persistence in this situation.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Hector latest update...ACE (It's Hector... not Isaac) and ex. TD 7
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Largo, don't forget there are bloggers here that live in Europe, some of them may have the potential to get impacted on our "fish" storms.


You are right, gal. You would be surprised how many people from other countries are on this blog. They don't always blog, but they are here. Many of them write to me off-blog. I am on a Norwegian blog and a German blog. I get a little annoyed sometimes because they are always correcting my English.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting outofdablue:
I Guess there are no takers for post 77. Looking at the tracks for 1916 it looks as if there where 14 storms that year 5 of which were major . Three which impacted the conus. Looking at those tracks I would guess that there would have been a strong A/B high and a lot of sal . Notice nothing got going until these waves reached the islands. Just an observation.


Sorry about that didnt see it, here ya go. click to enlarge.




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158. TXCWC
Euro day 4 still not dev a low - looks like Euro and GFS may continue to be at odds right now for BOC dev -unless dev later in this run

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Quoting TXCWC:
Day 3 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS very similar for BOC

GFS


EURO
Very similar with 93L as well, good to know we have consensus with our 2 best models :)
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:



yes, I noticed the models pointing that thing this way! Yes, I'm in Wales, so we can get the brunt of them when the remnants get here along with Cornwall/Devon or Ireland. Gets crazy where I live as I'm in the coastal mountains, weeeeee LOL


Man, how cool would it be to see a hurricane from above like that?!
..LOL i can understand,I was the same way when i moved to florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting VR46L:


Quite a lot of occassionally bloggers here are from the british Isles ...WU is available in Gaelic lol . Are people who have an interest in tropical storms only from tropical areas ... Last year Katia and Maria both only turned Ex tropical shortly before landing on my doorstep Maria Killed people due to flooding and winds .
When I lived in Scotland in the late 70's during the winter there was ALWAYS a gale force 8 or 9 blowing in the North Sea. Ireland being the first of the Islands to the east of the US must see a lot more storms pounding on your doorstep during the summer.
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Quoting ncstorm:


if you kept reading in this CURRENT blog that you posted a comment from a PREVIOUS blog, I also brought up the point if something hit the DNC convention as well...TCH..TCH..TCH..



Did you "hope" for it to happen in this current blog?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


^^^

This is the kind of comment this sort of blog topic brings.

Would love to see the roles reversed here and then see what libs would say about conservatives "hoping for a hurricane to ruin their convention."


if you kept reading in this CURRENT blog that you posted a comment from a PREVIOUS blog, I also brought up the point if something hit the DNC convention as well...TCH..TCH..TCH..

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NO IT IS NOT DONE AND NOT OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not over till there is no tropical wave left

AND IT IS SPELT O V E R NOT O V R E LOL!!!

and also EX-TD7 could relocate to the E I noticed the vort increasing just E of the EX-TD's vort and EX-TD's vort decreasing could mean relocation there both conected so it could




you overe hype a lot of storms


long live the dead of EX TD 7
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Quoting Grothar:
I have some home pictures of Tampa and Ybor city of my mother's family. There is only one of my mother as a young girl after the 1921 hurricane with her sister. The other is Tampa in 1926. They were leaving that week for Miami. Of course you know what happened to Miami in 1926??? I am still looking for those photos.

I thought you might get a kick out of these.




Our mother is on the left. They left for Miami shortly after this.



Very cool pictures Gro..I hope to get some old ones up one day.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NO IT IS NOT DONE AND NOT OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not over till there is no tropical wave left

AND IT IS SPELT O V E R NOT O V R E LOL!!!

and also EX-TD7 could relocate to the E I noticed the vort increasing just E of the EX-TD's vort and EX-TD's vort decreasing could mean relocation there both conected so it could


Just accept the fact its not gonna hit the caymans as a cat 4 and move on to the next storm
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........................hmmmm wonder if any of these coming off africa would build up in the caribbean?, just something to watch for now


Think so. It's the ripe time of the season.
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I Guess there are no takers for post 77. Looking at the tracks for 1916 it looks as if there where 14 storms that year 5 of which were major . Three which impacted the conus. Looking at those tracks I would guess that there would have been a strong A/B high and a lot of sal . Notice nothing got going until these waves reached the islands. Just an observation.
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147. TXCWC
Day 3 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS very similar for BOC

GFS


EURO
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN W VA...S CNTRL/SERN PA...CNTRL MD AND
N CNTRL VA...INCLUDING WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141807Z - 142000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 20-22Z. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT
NEGLIGIBLE...SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...CIRCULATION AROUND A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS
IS ALSO NEAR THE NOSE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
APPROACH 90F THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALSO EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG.

DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO
DESTABILIZATION...NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
AND NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH 20-22Z. STRONGER DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR
GENERALLY APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY A 500 MB JET STREAK GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...20-25 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW PROBABLY
WILL ADVECT STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA/CENTRAL MARYLAND...WHERE PRECIPITATION LOADING AND FURTHER
STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER... FORCING TO SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
STORM CLUSTER APPEARS WEAK...OR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. AND...EVEN WITH NEAR SURFACE FLOW REMAINING BACKED TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND NOT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIVELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 08/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39007890 40327804 40207640 39267617 37927766 38047878
38467927 39007890
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145. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i know and by them reading in our blog they now know what storm to watch for and maybe be prepared for it


Quite a lot of occassional bloggers here are from the british Isles ...WU is available in Gaelic lol . Are people who have an interest in tropical storms only from tropical areas ... Last year Katia and Maria both only turned Ex tropical shortly before landing on my doorstep Maria Killed people due to flooding and winds .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting Tazmanian:



whats drop Ex 7 its this a open wave wish has likey made land fall by now or is going too later



EX TD 7 is DONE! OVERE !

NO IT IS NOT DONE AND NOT OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not over till there is no tropical wave left

AND IT IS SPELT O V E R NOT O V R E LOL!!!

and also EX-TD7 could relocate to the E I noticed the vort increasing just E of the EX-TD's vort and EX-TD's vort decreasing could mean relocation there both conected so it could
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes I believe it is and now you know which storm to keep track of..good luck with it but its headed into cooler waters, should'nt get too strong, could fall apart too long before it reaches the isles,time will tell
The GFS actually shows it falling apart and never making landfall after its interaction with the next system that rolls off of Africa. However, I stress that is still a long ways out and from run to run the GFS has been inconsistent of where it wants to send 93L.
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142. JLPR2
Quoting LargoFl:
lets not forget 93L is headed into cooler waters and you know what That does to a tropical system


Wasters hot enough to support it extend all the way to 40n.

Now, if it moves east it will have a problem.

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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Largo, don't forget there are bloggers here that live in Europe, some of them may have the potential to get impacted on our "fish" storms.
..and what..did i say wrong here?..IF i had said its headed to FLORIDA..would floridians be offended?, forewarned is forearmed..better they understand there IS a chance this comes to them..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting LargoFl:
lets not forget 93L is headed into cooler waters and you know what That does to a tropical system


Yea...
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Quoting LargoFl:
lets not forget 93L is headed into cooler waters and you know what That does to a tropical system



i have seen storm fourm and be come hurricanes overe with cooler waters so nothing new
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Quoting LargoFl:
lets not forget 93L is headed into cooler waters and you know what That does to a tropical system


This happens...



ONLY in 2012 ;)
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Quoting VR46L:


Its a worry for me ....
..yes I believe it is and now you know which storm to keep track of..good luck with it but its headed into cooler waters, should'nt get too strong, could fall apart too long before it reaches the isles,time will tell
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?


^^^

This is the kind of comment this sort of blog topic brings.

Would love to see the roles reversed here and then see what libs would say about conservatives "hoping for a hurricane to ruin their convention."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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