The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

Share this Blog
49
+

On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1286 - 1236

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

I know y'all have better models than I but on the CMC it showed something moving toward the east coast at the end of the run. The EURO has something out there too but in a different place.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1285. ncstorm
the 06z Nogaps at 180 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
Good Morning Everyone. I'm kinda confused a little. Ok here we go maybe someone can clarify this up for me.
I read where they went up with the amount of storms we might get this year. But what I'm confused about is El nino is here or fixing to be and with the cooling of the waters and all if I'm reading that right,how can we have more storms. I mean right know we have 93l but it's heading out to sea. It seems like the dust is gonna kill everything. also some folks talking about the MJO isn't going to be much of one know, so how can we get more storms? What is there thinking? Do they possible see something going on further down the road than we do? I'm just down right a little confused.

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bobbyweather:

What do you mean? It's 93L, it won't meet land for at least a few days. If you're talking about ex-TD 7, it has a 0% chance.

Azores
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes code red in the Atlantic.Unfortunately it looks like land will be affected in the process.

What do you mean? It's 93L, it won't meet land for at least a few days. If you're talking about ex-TD 7, it has a 0% chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes code red in the Atlantic.Unfortunately it looks like land will be affected in the process.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17613
Good Morning Everyone! Rain on the Rio Grande AND continental Polar air. :)


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
928 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 19 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 22 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/15 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAY 3...TRANSITIONING TO THE 00Z/15 ECENS MEAN BY
DAY 5 TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS
AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE THAN A DAY AGO...THOUGH THE 00Z/15
GFS STILL BRINGS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RAINFALL NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE POLAR FRONT
LODGED INTO THE REGION.


WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THE
COOLEST...DRIEST CONDITIONS IN MANY WEEKS THERE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great read, Dr. Masters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
also watching an area near 9n 33w which looks insignificant at the moment. the area has moderate 700mb, 850mb and 500mb vorticity levels. it is also in a good shear enviroment. will monitor this area the next few hrs for signs of organisation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. icmoore
Quoting weaverwxman:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.


I have read between 50,000 and 60,000 estimated in various articles for the last couple of months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
US population hits maths milestone


8/14/12 TUE

Figuring out the number of American residents got as easy as pi on Tuesday (local time) as the United States touched a rare mathematical and demographic milestone.

The Census Bureau said that the United States reached 314,159,265 residents, or the mathematical ratio pi times 100 million, shortly after 2.29 pm.

Pi, or 3.14159265, is the mathematical constant that is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. It often is approximated as 22/7.
It's got to be killing Nea that he didn't find this factoid first:)
Nice find Georgia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
...............No invests in the gulf so far

Its suppose to happen this weekend...not right now!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wave over central africa seems to follow the same track. shear is in the acceptable range but what could be an impediment to early development, is the marginal sst and dry air in the catl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weaverwxman:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.
I know, Boston got the DNC in 04, they literally told everyone to stay home to not snarl traffic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that wave to exit the african coast in 24 hrs moves south of the cv islands into an area elongated 850mb vorticity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLINKY:


No fan of JB myself. What time frame is he giving for this potential event?


He said the pattern will get more "interesting" 8/20 - 9/5.. We'll see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angelafritz:
Dry air seems to be the name of the game this year in the Atlantic, huh.

Yes, no waves no matter how impressive just dont seem to develop. they dry out apon hitting the water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.

Nearly 150 staffers will eventually live, dine and shop in the Tampa Bay area in preparation for the 2012 Republican National Convention. And roughly 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area during the gathering.
hookers.flocking.to.the.town
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like 93L got it's European Visa stamped last night. Poor fellow just missed the closing ceremonies and they were worried about security over there. Top notch I tell ya.

It want's to catch the Paralympics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1266. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.
...yes i thought so too, until the papers started adding the protesters into the mix...going to be something to watch..from afar lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
1265. LargoFl
...............No invests in the gulf so far
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
1264. Patrap
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.

Nearly 150 staffers will eventually live, dine and shop in the Tampa Bay area in preparation for the 2012 Republican National Convention. And roughly 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area during the gathering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the 6Z 384HR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1219 Neapolitan: 93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still ungainly
AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO


Began its predicted recurve within the last 12hours as it changed from a TropicalWave to a L0w
MaxSusWinds went up by 5knots, but 4.2knots of that was from an increase in travel-speed.

BDA is Bermuda :: CVU is Corvu,Azores
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. SLINKY
Quoting Wunderwood:
Bastardi is still forecasting potential trouble for the Southeast.


No fan of JB myself. What time frame is he giving for this potential event?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1259. LargoFl
Just imagine..in YOUR hometown..600,000 people coming into it..............thats what WE here in the tampa bay area are starting to see already for the repub convention..geez, just imagine what the traffic is going to be like?...but the local businesses will be joyful and happy..well 12 days and it starts
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
sorry for this elementary question but does this image show the MJO coming in the atlantic?
Quoting hydrus:
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting CybrTeddy:


93L is embedded within an area of very high pressures.
developing.though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
US population hits maths milestone


8/14/12 TUE

Figuring out the number of American residents got as easy as pi on Tuesday (local time) as the United States touched a rare mathematical and demographic milestone.

The Census Bureau said that the United States reached 314,159,265 residents, or the mathematical ratio pi times 100 million, shortly after 2.29 pm.

Pi, or 3.14159265, is the mathematical constant that is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. It often is approximated as 22/7.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
1255. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1254. LargoFl
..............so far so good here on the coast,hopefully today we get some rain..been going around us all week and nothing here by me
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still ungainly:

AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


93L is embedded within an area of very high pressures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater
..local met yesterday said florida got 3000 lighning strikes in ..get this 20 minutes..geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
1250. Patrap
Western Wildfires 2012: Blaze Destroys 60 Homes In Washington (VIDEO)
Reuters | By Jonathan Kaminsky


OLYMPIA, Wash., Aug 14 (Reuters) - Firefighters battled wildfires across the U.S. West on Tuesday, including a massive out-of-control blaze that has destroyed at least 60 homes and burned more than 28,000 acres between two national forests in Washington state.

Another 400 homes were evacuated in the rolling hills between the northwest Washington towns of Cle Elum and Ellensburg, at the eastern edge of the Cascade Mountains, prompting Governor Christine Gregoire to declare a state of emergency in two counties.

The massive Taylor Bridge Fire was among more than a dozen wildfires burning across the West, which is wilting under a heat wave that has sent temperatures into the triple digits. Together, the fires have burned some 500,000 acres (200,000 hectares) across Idaho, Washington, Oregon and California.

Across the nation, wildfires have consumed roughly 6 million acres (2.4 million hectares) this year, above the 10-year average of 4.9 million acres, according to figures from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

Authorities said the Washington state fire was started on Monday afternoon by workers at a construction site east of Cle Elum, about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Seattle.

"We don't know what the actual cause was. We have no indication it was intentional," said Nancy Jones, a spokeswoman for a state emergency response team.

With strong winds and no rain in the area for three weeks, more damage is likely, said Bryan Flint, spokesman for the Department of Natural Resources.

Winds are pushing the fire east toward an area of mostly farmland, although more homes are in its path, Jones said. The fire is burning just 4 miles northwest of Ellensburg and 10 miles south of the Wenatchee National Forest. South of the fire is the Snoqualmie National Forest.

"All Washingtonians stand with those who have lost their homes and property in the Taylor Bridge Fire," Gregoire said in a written statement. "The destruction overnight is a stark reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly wildfire can move."


FIRES BURN IN CALIFORNIA

In northern California, more than 1,100 firefighters spent a third day attacking a pair of wildfires that have destroyed two homes in Lake County's Spring Valley area and charred some 7,000 acres.

Firefighters had contained only 30 percent of the two blazes burning dry brush in remote Lake and Colusa counties, said Daniel Berlant, a California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection spokesman. They did not expect full containment for a week.

But firefighters made enough progress attacking one of the fires that authorities lifted an evacuation order for 480 homes in the Spring Valley area on Monday night, he said.

Berlant said the flames had moved east into Colusa County and continued to threaten the area around Wilbur Hot Springs, a 147-year-old resort that offers clothing-optional bathing in mineral water.

Owner Richard Miller said he and 15 employees had to flee the property, which was closed on Sunday for 12 days of maintenance.

"It is in jeopardy," Miller said. "There's fire surrounding it."

But he was confident the California Department of Forestry would protect the retreat, which includes a stucco hotel built in 1910 and nine homes.

"Wilbur is a charmed and magical place and it has all the luck," Miller said.

Two firefighters suffered minor injuries while working the blaze in triple-digit temperatures.

Suzann Thompson, who works the front desk at Clear Lake Cottages and Marina, said the fires decimated business throughout the area. Clear Lake, the biggest lake in California, is a popular tourist attraction.

"It's really a catastrophe," she said. (Additional reporting by Ronnie Cohen in San Francisco; Laura Zuckerman in Salmon, Idaho; Teresa Carson in Portland; and Dan Whitcomb in Los Angeles; Writing by Dan Whitcomb and Mary Slosson; Editing by Cynthia Johnston, Bill Trott and Lisa Shumaker)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You are invited to a series of briefings on critical issues in weather for energy and risk management, featuring a roster of distinguished guest speakers from energy, media, and government. The Energy Weather Summit provides indispensable, timely, and cutting-edge information for anyone in weather-dependent businesses in a convenient luncheon format.

Topics will include
■Strategies for hedging against weather-related risk
■Extreme weather impacts and outlooks impacting the energy market
■What every risk manager should know when interpreting a weather forecast
■Methods used in weather and climate prediction and an assessment of their accuracy
■Climate change and the "global warming" issue
■The availability and utilization of weather data in the 21st century
■The role of technology in the integration of weather systems for E/CTRM
■The future of weather prediction and technology

Who should attend: Professionals from energy and commodities industries, including oil and gas, trading, power and utilities, renewable energy, investment banking and finance, E/CTRM technology, risk management, economics, environmental policy, and related businesses

When: Friday, September 21st, 2012, from 11:00AM to 2:00PM

Where: The Greenspoint Club, 16925 Northchase Drive, Houston, TX 77060 - (281) 836-4780

Cost: $75 - PRE-REGISTRATION IS REQUIRED - space is limited on a first-come, first-served basis


Energy Weather Summit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This one could be threatening the Azore Islands as a weakening hurricane. Talk about rare.





Wow 93L has almost unanimous model support. Wonder if we might see a "Chris" type of storm. Water temperatures are at about 23-24 degrees Celsuis around the Azores but you do not have to go far to the southwest to find MUCH warmer waters. In fact this entire basin is above average. If 93L becomes well organized before it encounters coolers waters it can more than easily traverse through the Azores with a powerful punch.




Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1539

Quoting icmoore:
The subject of this particular blog makes me nervous, kind of like a reality check. We moved from a home inland that was not in any flood zone to a cottage across the street from the Gulf on a barrier island and would be first to be told to evacuate. I don't even like to think about evacuating. I'm hoping Debby is all we see for a long time so I'm loving all the dry air so far this season!

You have moved to a beautiful place and the thought of someday having to evacuate may be depressing. BUT,  but please know, if the storm comes, you need to have a plan in place, and NEVER  EVER say "I'll be ok"  and "I'll just hunker down" as they say. These things are serious.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow...93L is coming together nice...but its turning northward a hair earlier than I thought...

Did a blog update this morning on all the Atlantic tropics...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...

even a stopped clock has the right time twice a day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I know that Levi has posted in the past on conditions in the Sahel Desert that he has monitored from time to time over the years for an idea of when the ongoing wave activity would pick up or, diminish.

If Levi is out there, his opinion would be appreciated.

It is like 4am where he lives right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
too funny lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
1242. Msdrown
Quoting icmoore:
The subject of this particular blog makes me nervous, kind of like a reality check. We moved from a home inland that was not in any flood zone to a cottage across the street from the Gulf on a barrier island and would be first to be told to evacuate. I don't even like to think about evacuating. I'm hoping Debby is all we see for a long time so I'm loving all the dry air so far this season!


I think what you should want is ocasional thunderstorms to keep this watered and cooled but no heavy tropicals. That would be the best scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



The last time I check the MJO forecast is not forecast too be has strong in fac we may not see the MJO at all


There's no way that big poppa is going poof, the MJO is going up, up, up, up, up!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater



Nice photos man, we haven't had anything locally in many days. Nothing will develop off the water, and the clouds don't grow until they progress east of here because the sea breeze is ill defined. Unfortunately for us this pattern is expected to continue through next week. At this rate we'll be approaching the record driest August here ever. Which is so strange because in this pattern we always at least get some rain along the coast, but we aren't. Also, to this pattern this persistent in August is nearly unheard of. I guess I had way too much hope in a "normal" rainy season, lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1239. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

I was posting last night how the ensemble models were trending more west and south with the Cape Verde storm it was showing..I see the operational Euro is back on the idea and the GFS operational has gone south with it and west but disappating the storm before hitting florida..lets see if the trend continues
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
Quoting Wunderwood:
Bastardi is still forecasting potential trouble for the Southeast.
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning to all, so hot and humid this mourning i had to go with iced coffee :). I see the gfs is trying to develop a nice 850 vort along the Mexican coast and 93L is up to 80%... Finally something to talk about :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna get some work done. Everyone have a great day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1286 - 1236

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Rain
49 °F
Rain Mist