The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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POTTS THEOREM #1

The reduction in Tropical activity is directly and proportionally linked to the upsurge in mindless drivel on the Blog.

or something like that anyway.
It's a Scientific fact, you know.
Enjoy it, it'll soon get worse.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24406
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


If the 93L blob on the right smacks into the blob on the left, does it make one big blob or many blobletts?


Depends if one is Male and one is Female!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ063-066-142130-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GLADES COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VENUS TO 5 MILES WEST OF FELDA. THESE STORMS WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
LA BELLE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2651 8124 2651 8156 2681 8157 2704 8156
2704 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 166DEG 2KT 2699 8142 2653 8151

$$

BAXTER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
hey guys I'm back and in much better condition to blog then how I was earler


ok what I see now with that area EX-TD7 (mind you I am not saying development will cocur)ok

right now
something is going on in that area
#1 convection is on the increase and spreading out

#2 upper level wind are good

#3 vort at 850 700 and 500 says something is going on there

#4 steering says whatever it is it will move W-WNW

#5 surface obs see a weak circulation is in the area as some obs in the extreme SW caribbean are repoting W wind

conclusion
something is going on down there however I don't see development due to possible land interaction however still should be watched with one eye instead of two and looks like cloudy rainy conditions for central america colombia Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
note this system I think could make it into the GOM/BOC and develop into that system that some models were predicting

ok that is it for the late TD7

now for 93L still need work to do but I have a feeling this may become TS or STS but should become ex-trop soon after


and so nothing else to worry about after that

well I think we will see an explostion of activity when we reach Sept Climo speeking
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BORING, I want some weather over my head! It's mid august now, come on!!!!!!
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Quoting ncstorm:
blobs..blobs..everywhere!



If the 93L blob on the right smacks into the blob on the left, does it make one big blob or many blobletts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


and he's not a crook..... :)


geeeeesh, why do have to be dem or repub or tea party or whatever....

...why cant just be be AMERICANS and elect those people people into office that represent AMERICANS.. not their party. /rant





Hey now, the similarities between me and the fella you quote are strictly onomastic...

(well, I might also share his propensity for defensiveness...)

And that's as close as I intend to get to political debate today.
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...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN GEORGIA...

WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER ABOVE VALDOSTA (SKIPPER BRIDGE RD) AFFECTING BERRIEN AND
LOWNDES COUNTIES
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA
COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS... AND HISTORICAL CREST INFORMATION FOR
ALL FORECAST POINTS BY CLICKING ON EACH POINT.

&&

FLC129-140405-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120816T1200Z/
/NEPF1.1.ER.120808T1800Z.120810T2000Z.120816T0600 Z.NO/
1212 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.



&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I understand this. My point is that Dr. Masters didn't even go that far... he simply raised the question of SHOULD there be weather contingency planning for the RNC. A very fair question... that has received far too many unfair responses.


I was responding to a question about cruise lines, not the political thing.
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blobs..blobs..everywhere!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boring..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17098
525. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
Rolling Gust Front outflow Boundaries big time this afternoon.



You guys are just catching our left overs from last night... LOL!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Actually, I'd bet they have weather-tracking going on 24/7 for all cruise lines during hurricane season, with contingency plans formulated by HQ for each ship & each scenario. IF & WHEN there is any threat, HQ probably makes a call to whichever ships it needs to & directs them to take specific steps.


I understand this. My point is that Dr. Masters didn't even go that far... he simply raised the question of should there be weather contingency planning for the RNC. A very fair question... that has received far too many unfair responses.
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Hopefully Texas gets some well-needed rain from this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
folks some really bad storms in florida..local met said in florida there were 3000 lightning strikes in 20 minutes and slow moving storms and flash flooding..stay safe out there today....here is only one of the numerous warnings..............LOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLC057-081-142230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0069.120814T2104Z-120814T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-MANATEE FL-
504 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Rolling Gust Front outflow Boundaries big time this afternoon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
If you go on a cruise in the Caribbean during hurricane season... would you prefer the cruise line to have a plan of action in place in case of a hurricane, or prefer the cruise line not to discuss that possibility and just figure out what to do when the time comes?

If you go to an outdoor sporting event, would you prefer they have a system in place to track severe weather and notify the public in case of severe weather... or prefer they wait until someone is struck by lightning to evacuate the area/ tell people to take shelter?

Has anyone complaining about Dr Masters post heard of weather contingency plans?!?


Actually, I'd bet they have weather-tracking going on 24/7 for all cruise lines during hurricane season, with contingency plans formulated by HQ for each ship & each scenario. IF & WHEN there is any threat, HQ probably makes a call to whichever ships it needs to & directs them to take specific steps.
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Quoting Naga5000:


You have to be kidding me, there is a political convention in a city long overdue for a hurricane strike, so the Dr. writes a blog on the possibility of a hurricane hitting the week of the convention. There is no political leaning in his post, read the blog again.

I really have no clue why some people read so much into something that's not there.


As I mentioned to the fellow who wanted to ban me for my heresy, I was being tongue in cheek.

I have detected Dr. Masters' leanings being a paid member here for many a moon and reading his stuff on a regular basis. They don't offend me but they do challenge me and I enjoy his rants, even ones that masquerade as entirely plausible hypothetical forecasts. LOL!
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Latest info on Hector...also included ex TD7 and 93L...
An Atlantic/Epac big graphic

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Quoting presslord:


smart aleck



heh heh hi presslord
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I do tink I sprained a Retina.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting Tazmanian:







i no where this is going


smart aleck
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
If you go on a cruise in the Caribbean during hurricane season... would you prefer the cruise line to have a plan of action in place in case of a hurricane, or prefer the cruise line not to discuss that possibility and just figure out what to do when the time comes?

If you go to an outdoor sporting event, would you prefer they have a system in place to track severe weather and notify the public in case of severe weather... or prefer they wait until someone is struck by lightning to evacuate the area/ tell people to take shelter?

Has anyone complaining about Dr Masters post heard of weather contingency plans?!?


Hmmm, sort of like to prevent a modern-day version of the movie "Whitesquall", except with a cruise ship?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
509. midgulfmom


We were without power for almost a week there after Elena.


We were all lucky it struck the coast at a angle.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Would've loved to talk about weather today..don't seem that's going to happen...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17098
511. MTWX
Quoting presslord:


lost a bunch from May and June...long story...if you sent me something please resend it...


sure thing!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting presslord:
Who left the gate open at the Nut House?!?!?!




.


i no where this is going
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey..just popped in for a sec...Patrap I remember that crazy Elena...back and forth, back and forth. Haven't seen anything like that in a while thank goodness!
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


People see what they want to see. I agree, equating the probability of a hurricane striking tampa in late august, and an asteroid striking Charlotte during the DNC, is one of the more ridiculous things I've seen on the blog. Anyone who has their panties in a wad needs to accept the fact that, as you said, Tampa is a big city, way overdue for a hurricane, and the convention is during an active part of hurricane season. It is a real discussion, and republicans have had the same discussion so they can make plans for what to do if the scenario actually unfolds....

Maybe those who are upset would prefer to keep their heads in the sand and not even think about the very real possibility until it is too late


I think the real issue at hand is trying to correlate a discussion about a particular party's convention and a possible weather event that could happen to that being proof of political bias. It's absurd, childish, and uninformed. It makes actual discussion about political issues impossible. Anyways, you're right, it would be foolish to think that the RNC didn't look at this possibility themselves and developed a plan to deal with a potential problem. I'm out for a bit, this blog is just a silly place today.
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Quoting MTWX:
Press! When was the last time you checked you email??


lost a bunch from May and June...long story...if you sent me something please resend it...
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I belong to the IWannaTalkWeatherNOTPolitics Party.
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505. MTWX
Press! When was the last time you checked you email??
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
If you go on a cruise in the Caribbean during hurricane season... would you prefer the cruise line to have a plan of action in place in case of a hurricane, or prefer the cruise line not to discuss that possibility and just figure out what to do when the time comes?

If you go to an outdoor sporting event, would you prefer they have a system in place to track severe weather and notify the public in case of severe weather... or prefer they wait until someone is struck by lightning to evacuate the area/ tell people to take shelter?

Has anyone complaining about Dr Masters post heard of weather contingency plans?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Who left the gate open at the Nut House?!?!?!


You were the last one there...
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Who left the gate open at the Nut House?!?!?!
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Quoting MrMixon:


It's just a snarky little internet doohicky that performs a google search for "nws bullets"

I've been here six years and I'm not going to risk my reputation and a permanent ban by posting something malicious or even NSFW. Not my style. But it's wise of you to be cautious.


and he's not a crook..... :)


geeeeesh, why do have to be dem or repub or tea party or whatever....

...why cant just be be AMERICANS and elect those people people into office that represent AMERICANS.. not their party. /rant



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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hope that one post was worth a ban, #483.


LOL! That's the capital-D Democratic spirit!

Obviously I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek with that post. Is that now truly a censorship offense?
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Quoting jascott1967:


Hmmmm...it has potential. I'll call my ex-wife and find out how much.


(- bwahahahahaha!!)
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Quoting Naga5000:


You have to be kidding me, there is a political convention in a city long overdue for a hurricane strike, so the Dr. writes a blog on the possibility of a hurricane hitting the week of the convention. There is no political leaning in his post, read the blog again.

I really have no clue why some people read so much into something that's not there.


People see what they want to see. I agree, equating the probability of a hurricane striking tampa in late august, and an asteroid striking Charlotte during the DNC, is one of the more ridiculous things I've seen on the blog. Anyone who has their panties in a wad needs to accept the fact that, as you said, Tampa is a big city, way overdue for a hurricane, and the convention is during an active part of hurricane season. It is a real discussion, and republicans have had the same discussion so they can make plans for what to do if the scenario actually unfolds....

Maybe those who are upset would prefer to keep their heads in the sand and not even think about the very real possibility until it is too late
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Quoting Patrap:
Well, maybe the Doc will do a entry on the prospect of a NOLA Strike and the Superdome roof Wind Rating now.


The Super Bowl is here in Feb so that's a serious one, and much mo important than a Convention I would think.

: )

ps."Sarcasm noted above"





It all depends on whos playing!
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I really have no clue why some people read so much into something that's not there.

The wunderground High Pooh-Bah/Bain/Blackstone group attribute that to the FOX NEWS factor.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
494. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hope that one post was worth a ban, #483.

Apparently it was...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Well, maybe the Doc will do a entry on the prospect of a NOLA Strike and the Superdome roof Wind Rating now.


The Super Bowl is here in Feb so that's a serious one, and much mo important than a Convention I would think.

: )

ps."Sarcasm noted above"



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z CMC predicts a lot of rain as well like the GFS for Mexico and Southern Texas







Wow, looks like a tropical system moving in then getting cast back down by a coldfront. Should indeed be a rainmaker!!
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491. TXCWC
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z CMC predicts a lot of rain as well like the GFS for Mexico and Southern Texas







We need the rain but GFS and CMC would be too much too fast - flooding would be a given if they verified - storm or no storm
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Quoting caneswatch:


I am (sarcasm).

Actually I voted today in FL's primaries. First time I voted.
Congratulations... regardless of which party you support, I strongly believe that you should exercise that right, especially given that the history of the United States is based on this right.

One of the things that has concerned me about this election cycle is the reports of attempts in a number of states to disenfranchise voters based on ID. In the Bahamas, you must be able to prove you are legally eligible to vote, and then you are given a voter's card, which is a legal form of identification. The voter's card is free. One can also use a passport or driver's licence. The bottom line is that everybody who wants to vote and is eligible is encouraged to do so. I don't know how feasible such a system is costwise in the US, but the little Bahamas manages to afford it once every five years.

Many Bahamians were not eligible to vote until after 1960, so we take voting seriously. I'm not saying everybody "has" to vote, but people mostly do. Maybe this is because there are some measures put in place to give people a fair opportunity. Employers are required by law to give each employee two hours on election day to go and vote; schools are closed. The system is by no means perfect, but it's designed to facilitate voting. I find it hard to believe that in the United States similar mechanisms like early voting and extended voting hours are being eschewed by some as being "too costly". I can't imagine money being more important than the smooth flow of the political process.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22323
Hope that one post was worth a ban, #483.
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Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
Now, I am aware of the good Doctor's political leanings -- his donkey ears flop very loudly through his obsessive attempts to prove man-made global warming via CO2 by constantly highlighting broken temperature records, as if that was scientific proof.

But to openly fantasize about the statistical probabilities of the destruction of ones' political foes in a freak catastrophic hurricane? Even I, with my fertile imagination for the absurd, never foresaw that!

Pray tell: what about the possibility of a earth-destroying asteroid slamming into Charlotte, North Carolina, the week of September 3?

At least that would resolve the climate change debate once and for all.


You have to be kidding me, there is a political convention in a city long overdue for a hurricane strike, so the Dr. writes a blog on the possibility of a hurricane hitting the week of the convention. There is no political leaning in his post, read the blog again.

I really have no clue why some people read so much into something that's not there.
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I will give up my Amateur Astronomer Card when they pry it from my Dead cold Telescope's eyepiece.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting RitaEvac:
Thought ol Gramps was in NC watching Irene barrel his way last year and dissapeared... now he's back with a May 29th, 2012 screen name

A fellow Texan!

This came thru last night, LCRA met, just read it though, and today's atmo structure over TX is pretty much like yesterdays with more Tstorms forecast:

...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the cold over the Hill Country and the northern part of Central Texas. With the current structure of the atmosphere, any of today’s storms could produce very strong downburst winds along with some small hail.

Downbursts/microbursts have been a very recent problem in Centex so when the storms roll through later keep that in mind.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.