The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


a lot more than my fingers can count




TA yeah I know that



carefull it could be filled up with couple of barrels of rum




hmm what ever is, is what ever


It's called living in what used to be an inland sea in Texas, but I shouldn't expect you to know that, so I do sincerely apologize.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Hey WKC, how many hurricanes have you experienced?


a lot more than my fingers can count


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You realize the SW Caribbean blob is the remnants of TD Seven, right? Of course it has a circulation.


TA yeah I know that

Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's cool, I think I need some of what ur drinkin'...


carefull it could be filled up with couple of barrels of rum


Quoting redwagon:

It would help if it did exactly as Hermine does.

Here, in the 'Hill' country, we have massive rings of calceous (exoskeleton shells 65mya) deposits we call hills but they break up low-running storm cells. In order to get rain we need it high up and extreme, like a strong, persistent TS. Actual hurricanes - even major, like Ike - can't make it here, not even their bands.


hmm what ever is, is what ever

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XX/XX/XX
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Frankly, I think there are prolly equal chances for a Florida strike of some kind during the week of the RNC, and lesser chances for anywhere along the BoM coast. Pple are forgetting also that we already had major flooding in the Tampa area earlier this year... certainly it's a possibility that anybody planning a major convention would have to consider.

I also have to remind bloggers of Hugo, which caused extensive damage in Charlotte, NC, despite that city being far removed from the shore. In Charlotte, other wx threats like tornados are possible, not to mention the potential for some form of hurricane strike along the east coast during the 1st week of September.

Anybody who's not keeping their eye on 93L out there must be south of me... I'm feeling pretty good about it turning out well before Bermuda [the GFS had a fairly good handle on the track, if not intensity, imo] but other scenarios are possible... and this year has already had a couple of surprises.

..we must remember..this is August..and most likely place a hurricane will go once in the gulf..is towards louisianna or texas, not towards florida, and especially not towards Tampa
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Euro also in agreement with future Isaac forming potentially off the coast of Africa and sends it considerably south than the GFS.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17161
Its showing the low in the boc developing by 84-90 hr time frame it looks like...will post graphic if its interesting again!
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


-- Would help if it tracked a bit W of that projection you showed.

It would help if it did exactly as Hermine does.

Here, in the 'Hill' country, we have massive rings of calceous (exoskeleton shells 65mya) deposits we call hills but they break up low-running storm cells. In order to get rain we need it high up and extreme, like a strong, persistent TS. Actual hurricanes - even major, like Ike - can't make it here, not even their bands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Ahhh, thats better and more like the wu of old.

Taz and WKC making up, the Doc posting on his thoughts.

A regla Kum bah yah moment.


Sip, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
If it's cool, I think I need some of what ur drinkin'...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting stormpetrol:
These Obs would suggest some kind of circulation with SW Caribbean blob.

You realize the SW Caribbean blob is the remnants of TD Seven, right? Of course it has a circulation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


FEEL FREE TO NIX THE POLITICS HERE!!!
A blog post discussing the odds of a hurricane hitting Tampa during this month's Republican convention has as much to do with politics as a news story about a church fire has to do with religious doctrine.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol


as I just said stormpetrol anyway how are you and how is thing up by you how are you friends are do good I hope


Everything is cool, think I'm going to have a few Coors Light & relax for awhile.
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Hey guys and gals, I have a solution, have the Dr. do a write up on a Hurricane hitting Charlotte for the Democrat convention. I was there for Hugo and it shut that city down for a week! Now I am on the coast and come to this blog for weather data. PS Patrap I am a very old female Vietnam Vet who is conservative so do we cancel out each others views or just let them ride.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters
Thanks Doc.
I think most were expecting some different more aggressive forecast, and your 500/1 odds took 'em by surprise. I wasn't surprised though. On top of the low probability, you also forecast a hurricane-free convention as most likely, which some might have missed. Thanks.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



lol may may be it will snow

lol

Quoting stormpetrol:
These Obs would suggest some kind of circulation with SW Caribbean blob.

as I just said stormpetrol anyway how are you and how is thing up by you how are you friends are do good I hope
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The chances of the RNC getting slammed by a hurricane in Tampa, are about the same as another Republican flying over the heads of the people in New Orleans, stranded on their roof tops.



President George W. Bush looks out a window of Air Force One as he flies over New Orleans, La., surveying the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, Aug. 31, 2005.






So a 100% chance then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Frankly, I think there are prolly equal chances for a Florida strike of some kind during the week of the RNC, and lesser chances for anywhere along the BoM coast. Pple are forgetting also that we already had major flooding in the Tampa area earlier this year... certainly it's a possibility that anybody planning a major convention would have to consider.

I also have to remind bloggers of Hugo, which caused extensive damage in Charlotte, NC, despite that city being far removed from the shore. In Charlotte, other wx threats like tornados are possible, not to mention the potential for some form of hurricane strike along the east coast during the 1st week of September.

Anybody who's not keeping their eye on 93L out there must be south of me... I'm feeling pretty good about it turning out well before Bermuda [the GFS had a fairly good handle on the track, if not intensity, imo] but other scenarios are possible... and this year has already had a couple of surprises.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Heeeheee, hahaha -- you're a young fella (our secret),
as you acted like you'd be gone for awhile but came back rather soon -- young people's clocks run fast.

Okay, on 93L -- any chance it can dive under that system W of it & avoid being swept NE?

On Ex TD7 -- I thought it seemed to be tearing away W/NW of that other activity down there. Think it will part ways with it & both evolve separately? The big mass I think will move slightly N or NW.


hmm interesting

well #1 I am not that young as you think

and 93L well there maybe a chance but right now I'll leave it as it is there

and on EX-TD7 nah so far no tearing just that general movement and trades have drop a whole lot in the area so forward movement is kinda slow and hard to tell

but what you are saying makes sense as well hmm who know at the moment we will have to wait and see


Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


BTW - no problems with anyone here being young or even kids. People learn in their interests & young people can learn fast.


nope no problem I kinda wish I was younger but yet kinda don't lol
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These Obs would suggest some kind of circulation with SW Caribbean blob.
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566. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Should see code red sometime tonight or tomorrow.


And I would not be surprised, if it did the same as correct me if I am wrong ,Alberto,Beryl and Chris jump from red to TS





Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, August 14, 2012 18:00 Z

Location at the time:
912 statue miles (1468 km) to the ESE from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1014 mb (29.95 inHg | 1014 hPa)

Coordinates:
25.2N 52.1W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
18z GFS just began running!

C'mon, GFS, give us some good news!
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters


FEEL FREE TO NIX THE POLITICS HERE!!!
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters


Well, could pretty much count on rain with or without extratropical remants out here anyway :P Weather actually held up pretty good for here!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 857
Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters

Saw it!

My internet was down that day and I was desperately flipping through the 600 or so channels trying to find a decent radar image. Well, I never found one until the local news came on later, but while I was searching, they ran a promo that you were coming up.

Good segment.
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Quoting VR46L:


Jmo Gordon could get named tomorrow...Getting his game face on



Should see code red sometime tonight or tomorrow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17161
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


lol try not to spoil the moment huh lol



hey Taz a hurricane and if I follow the models in the UK oh boy I don't know about that well better tell the family to look out I guess I better put up the shutters up at my house in Scotland if it comes anyfarther N lol



lol may may be it will snow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting redwagon:



This is a very, very important forecast for the Centex Highland Lakes (which are almost gone and supply water to everybody around Austin)

CMC is good at cyclogenesis, and GFS is good with the followup track. Please, God, let the GFS verify this.

The CMC notion is similar to the last good rain we had here, TS Hermine in Sept 2010, 18" in one day, all 7 lakes full overnight.



Hermine did jump from the EPAC though, was not home-grown.


-- Would help if it tracked a bit W of that projection you showed.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ahhh, thats better and more like the wu of old.

Taz and WKC making up, the Doc posting on his thoughts.

A regla Kum bah yah moment.


Sip, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh


lol try not to spoil the moment huh lol

Quoting Tazmanian:



hi dr m 93L is up too %50 not sure if it will be come a hurricane but it dos look like a strong TS


hey Taz a hurricane and if I follow the models in the UK oh boy I don't know about that well better tell the family to look out I guess I better put up the shutters up at my house in Scotland if it comes anyfarther N lol
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Heeeheee, hahaha -- you're a young fella (our secret),
as you acted like you'd be gone for awhile but came back rather soon -- young people's clocks run fast.

Okay, on 93L -- any chance it can dive under that system W of it & avoid being swept NE?

On Ex TD7 -- I thought it seemed to be tearing away W/NW of that other activity down there. Think it will part ways with it & both evolve separately? The big mass I think will move slightly N or NW.


BTW - no problems with anyone here being young or even kids. People learn in their interests & young people can learn fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters


well, then...the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn is...you obviously hate the Olympics...btw...if you also hate Charleston....Can you give me the odds of a hurricane hitting here? Thanks1
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555. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pleeeeeease give us a storm to track!.93L hurry up and develop!.The blog is so whack today.


Jmo Gordon could get named tomorrow...Getting his game face on



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Speaking of cruise ships, I hope none of the companies comes up with a Republican or Democratic only cruise. I wouldn't want to be on any ship that leaned too heavily to one side. Just sayin'
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Hi pottery, I know about the floodings in T&T but after seeing this video of the Glencoe floodings and damage that occured there,I say wow.

Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I'm back and in much better condition to blog then how I was earler


ok what I see now with that area EX-TD7 (mind you I am not saying development will cocur)ok

right now
something is going on in that area
#1 convection is on the increase and spreading out

#2 upper level wind are good

#3 vort at 850 700 and 500 says something is going on there

#4 steering says whatever it is it will move W-WNW

#5 surface obs see a weak circulation is in the area as some obs in the extreme SW caribbean are repoting W wind

conclusion
something is going on down there however I don't see development due to possible land interaction however still should be watched with one eye instead of two and looks like cloudy rainy conditions for central america colombia Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
note this system I think could make it into the GOM/BOC and develop into that system that some models were predicting

ok that is it for the late TD7

now for 93L still need work to do but I have a feeling this may become TS or STS but should become ex-trop soon after


and so nothing else to worry about after that

well I think we will see an explostion of activity when we reach Sept Climo speeking


Heeeheee, hahaha -- you're a young fella (our secret),
as you acted like you'd be gone for awhile but came back rather soon -- young people's clocks run fast.

Okay, on 93L -- any chance it can dive under that system W of it & avoid being swept NE?

On Ex TD7 -- I thought it seemed to be tearing away W/NW of that other activity down there. Think it will part ways with it & both evolve separately? The big mass I think will move slightly N or NW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:



This is a very, very important forecast for the Centex Highland Lakes (which are almost gone and supply water to everybody around Austin)

CMC is good at cyclogenesis, and GFS is good with the followup track. Please, God, let the GFS verify this.

The CMC notion is similar to the last good rain we had here, TS Hermine in Sept 2010, 18" in one day, all 7 lakes full overnight.



Hermine did jump from the EPAC though, was not home-grown.

I should add, should San Antonio and downriver get most of the rain, LCRA can shut the floodgates at Mansfield Dam to recover what does rain over our basin.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i accept your Apology


ok thank you


Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters


hey Doc Can't wait to see the vid I did miss it and I would very much so love to see it thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters



hi dr m 93L is up too %50 not sure if it will be come a hurricane but it dos look like a strong TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Ahhh, thats better and more like the wu of old.

Taz and WKC making up, the Doc posting on his thoughts.

A regla Kum bah yah moment.


Sip, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS just began running!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
546. JeffMasters (Admin)
I don't know how many of you caught it, but I did a video segment a week before the Olympics on The Weather Channel, discussing the possibility of the extratropical remnants of a hurricane affecting the games. I intended to post that on my blog, but other topics were more pressing. Like in the current post, I said that the odds were quite low.

Jeff Masters
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
I have detected Dr. Masters' leanings being a paid member here for many a moon and reading his stuff on a regular basis. They don't offend me but they do challenge me and I enjoy his rants, even ones that masquerade as entirely plausible hypothetical forecasts. LOL!
"His rants"? Hmmmmm.
Rant ('rant) - [verb, noun] v To speak in a loud, uncontrolled, and angry way. n A speech that is long, angry, and often confusing.
I do not think that word means what you think it means...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Boring..


Come on Wash and make the GFS mad..we need to see a real good Cape Verde storm on the next run
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15750
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I'm back and in much better condition to blog then how I was earler


ok what I see now with that area EX-TD7 (mind you I am not saying development will cocur)ok

right now
something is going on in that area
#1 convection is on the increase and spreading out

#2 upper level wind are good

#3 vort at 850 700 and 500 says something is going on there

#4 steering says whatever it is it will move W-WNW

#5 surface obs sya w weak circulation is in the area as some obs in the extreme SW caribbean are repoting W wind

conclusion
something is going on down there however I don't see development due to possible land interaction however still should be watched with one eye instead of two and looks like cloudy rainy conditions for central america colombia Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
note this system I think could make it into the GOM/BOC and develop into that system that some models were predicting

ok that is it for the late TD7

now for 93L still need work to do but I have a feeling this may become TS or STS but should become ex-trop soon after


and so nothing else to worry about after that

well I think we will see an explostion of activity when we reach Sept Climo speeking



i accept your Apology
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Latest info on Hector...also included ex TD7 and 93L...
An Atlantic/Epac big graphic



Go Hernesto go! You've been around so long, you feel like one of the family now...even if you are a bit loco and have had some sort of identity crisis...you've hung on, don't putter out now I will miss you so
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 857
Some should feel free to offer their own Blogs instead of wailing like Banshees over the Authors content.

We have enormous amounts of server space now.




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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z CMC predicts a lot of rain as well like the GFS for Mexico and Southern Texas








This is a very, very important forecast for the Centex Highland Lakes (which are almost gone and supply water to everybody around Austin)

CMC is good at cyclogenesis, and GFS is good with the followup track. Please, God, let the GFS verify this.

The CMC notion is similar to the last good rain we had here, TS Hermine in Sept 2010, 18" in one day, all 7 lakes full overnight.



Hermine did jump from the EPAC though, was not home-grown.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Depends if one is Male and one is Female!


Heh,....not anymore.....but don't wanna talk politics, lol.
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Pleeeeeease give us a storm to track!.93L hurry up and develop!.The blog is so whack today.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17161
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


If the 93L blob on the right smacks into the blob on the left, does it make one big blob or many blobletts?


LOL!! I think you need to ask our blobtologist, Grothar. He is the expert on them..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15750
Remember this...

POTTS THEOREM #1

The reduction in Tropical activity is directly and proportionally linked to the upsurge in mindless drivel on the Blog.

or something like that anyway.
It's a Scientific fact, you know.
Enjoy it, it'll soon get worse.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.