The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

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I have to ask is everyone in the Weather Chat a fake? (Cause if not then wow)
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Quoting Grothar:


You know the comments I hate. When a storm is coming someone will always write, "It's going to move right over my house" What I want to know is, how come it's never their neighbor's house?????


But I live in the middle of nowhere and have no neighbors...if I did, I would totally pick them! LOL Would only be the remnants of something by the time it got here anyway! And anyway, don't get that many even remnants making it here! :P
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
Quoting MTWX:


Wurtzburg has always been my favorite!! Wish I could go there again!!


Very nice place. Too bad so little remains of the old city. Much of it was destroyed. Beautiful place, though. (They talk funny there)
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Trying to remember, but wouldn't an AEW that was huge over WAfrica have more difficulty in adapting to the water? I'm not thinking about actual lows in this context.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Personally the blob in SW Caribbean is a separate entity from exTD7, it came off the Panama , Colombian border and merged with part of the remnants of ex07, 07 moved into the extreme NE Nicaragua border near Honduras this morning, the blob is basically a separate entity IMO that bears watching!
yes,the time lapse polar image seems to show this moving NW towards Yucatan.What are the possibilities of this being pulled more northward into the gom??
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


There were two fatalities right?

2 men were killed.
One when his house was swept into a river, another when a hillside fell onto his house.
Very tragic.

The closest weather stations recorded 3" of rainfall.
Both those stations are 2 miles away from the worst areas.
A friend who lives in the La Horquette area said he has never seen rain fall as hard as that. So without any stations in the areas most affected we don't know what the rainfall was.

Looks like a major cloudburst over the mountain ridges at the head of the valleys.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Quoting weatherh98:


I getting a bad storm pat


Those outflow Boundaries have caused a few Storms..your way.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Speaking of odds.....looking at that(#782) they just went down on the mudders at Saratoga tomorrow. Thanks Largo.


Hey, I forgot, Cosmic. Put 3 long on Starboy in the 5th for me.
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828. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Rothenburg ob der Tauber is one of my most favorite places in the world! Walking through it especially when it's snowing is like stepping back in time.


Wurzburg has always been my favorite!! Wish I could go there again!!



Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
Checking in, with 93L at 50%, what are your thoughts on this becoming Gordon?
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check out the blob thats coming off africa
Link
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post # 822.... excellent stuff...
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Quoting Patrap:




I getting a bad storm pat
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is this what the models are P/U as the storm in the Gulf?


Could be, whats the time frame, I rarely look at models.If its 72 to 120 hours then it is possible, unless it the AOI in the BOC!
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I suppose it has been mentioned already, but several American cities that are vulnerable to hurricanes have hosted presidential election year political conventions
in the past. Just from my memory, these include:

1. Boston -- At least once and I would think more than once, most recent was the Democratic party convention of 2004.

2. New York City -- Both parties have held their nominating conventions here, on several occasions over the many decades. As is often mentioned in a non-political context, many people overlook the vulnerability of NYC to hurricanes. Last year, the city got a scare from Irene but it fortunately turned out to be far less than predicted.

3. Philadelphia -- This city has hosted the major political party conventions a number of times over the years. The most recent one I can remember was during the 1990s but I cannot remember for which party or what year exactly.

4. Charlotte will host the Democratic convention this year in September. As has been mentioned already on this blog, Hurricane Hugo hit Charlotte very hard in September of 1989 with sustained winds at or near hurricane force and gusts well over that. Most people overlook this though because the media concentrated on the devastation to Charleston, SC, Myrtle Beach, SC and other cities and towns nearer to the coast.

5. Atlanta was the site of the 1988 Democratic convention. Seems safe enough but Hurricane Opal in 1995 still had hurricane force winds when it went through Atlanta, surprising even some meteorologists. Atlanta is hundreds of miles inland and up to a thousand feet above sea level but still can get hit hard by major hurricanes roaring into the Central Gulf Coast, if atmospheric conditions are favorable.

6. Miami -- This city (specifically it was Miami Beach) had the unique distinction of holding three political conventions in two successive presidential election cycles. The Republicans held their convention here in August of 1968 and both parties in 1972. The Republican convention of '72 was supposed to be held in San Diego but last minute problems with the venue there and other squabbles led to it being moved to Miami Beach on a moment's notice. The city after all was convention-ready, having just held the Democrat's show a month earlier. But the potential hurricane risk to the Miami area is obvious.

7. Tampa -- Is scheduled to host the Republican convention this year, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and much discussed on this blog already.

8. New Orleans -- This city has been the site of major political conventions more than once, with the Republican convention of 1988 being the most recent one, if memory serves me right. But the hurricane risk here, again, does not need to be discussed in detail, obviously.

9. Houston was the site of the 1992 Republican convention. Again, the risk is clear when one thinks of Houston's history with destructive tropical cyclones.

10. Dallas -- This is a town that most would think is not vulnerable to hurricanes, being more than 200 miles inland. But it certainly has been affected by them before, even though they were in their weakening stages at the time. One example of this from decades ago was Hurricane Carla in 1961. It was a tropical storm when it went through Dallas but the flooding rains from those upon inland locations following landfall are epic in some instances. Think of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 in Houston and the surrounding territory for a recent example of this.

I may have missed one or two other sites which could be impacted by hurricanes or their after-effects. Many areas of the Eastern US can see devastating flooding rains from dying tropical systems. These can cause life-threatening floods, as mentioned before.

But oddly enough, in spite of the risk over the years, no major presidential year nominating convention has so far ever been canceled or directly impacted by a tropical cyclone, to my knowledge, in spite of the fact that they always happen during hurricane season.

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Quoting Grothar:


You really are familiar with that place. Thought you were jut kidding. My favorite is Zur Hoell Tavern. Best Haxen mit Kartoffeln.


Rothenburg ob der Tauber is one of my most favorite places in the world! Walking through it especially when it's snowing is like stepping back in time.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
.
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I was up there yesterday.
Took the pavement off the roads.
Shows what the power of the water is like, running down those hills.
Tens of millions $$$$ damages.


There were two fatalities right?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Personally the blob in SW Caribbean is a separate entity from exTD7, it came off the Panama , Colombian border and merged with part of the remnants of ex07, 07 moved into the extreme NE Nicaragua border near Honduras this morning, the blob is basically a separate entity IMO that bears watching!
Is this what the models are P/U as the storm in the Gulf?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I believe so, or the one on the left just down past
Käthe Wohlfahrt's.


You really are familiar with that place. Thought you were jut kidding. My favorite is Zur Hoell Tavern. Best Haxen mit Kartoffeln.
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exTD7 moving on shore this late morning, finally had those west winds!
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Quoting Jebekarue:
I have noticed in the last few days here in Pensacola that the leaves are already starting to change color!!! It's wayyy to early!!
..might be from all that rain these last few weeks, sun must have been hidden quite alot with all the clouds huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Personally the blob in SW Caribbean is a separate entity from exTD7, it came off the Panama , Colombian border and merged with part of the remnants of ex07, 07 moved into the extreme NE Nicaragua border near Honduras this morning, the blob is basically a separate entity IMO that bears watching!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate these comments...


You know the comments I hate. When a storm is coming someone will always write, "It's going to move right over my house" What I want to know is, how come it's never their neighbor's house?????
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery, I know about the floodings in T&T but after seeing this video of the Glencoe floodings and damage that occured there,I say wow.

Link

Yeah, I was up there yesterday.
Took the pavement off the roads.
Shows what the power of the water is like, running down those hills.
Tens of millions $$$$ damages.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
I have noticed in the last few days here in Pensacola that the leaves are already starting to change color!!! It's wayyy to early!!
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS SFC LOW
PRES OVER WESTERN PA MOVES INTO WRN NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND CHC FOR TSRA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 500-800 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE VALUES COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SVR TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THE MINIMAL SVR WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER. ALTHOUGH, SFC LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NYS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER CNTRL NY WITH WEAK SFC
LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC AND A STRONGER SFC LOW IN THE DELMARVA. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF I81. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSRA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MAKE FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO
EASTERN CANADA WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM IS FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE REALIZED. THIS SYSTEM BEING MUCH STRONGER
HAS MORE SUPPORTIVE KINEMATICS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT, WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting Grothar:


I heard he eats at Mario's. Isn't he place right on Schmiedglasse?


I believe so, or the one on the left just down past
Käthe Wohlfahrt's.
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Sorry about the Time coment.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Speaking of odds.....looking at that they just went down on the mudders at Saratoga tomorrow. Thanks Largo.
lots of rain coming down there yep..mudders is right
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Dr. Jeff Masters

--history suggests that the odds

---------------

um

well

We have met the odds...

and they are US.

: )
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Quoting LargoFl:
Speaking of odds.....looking at that(#782) they just went down on the mudders at Saratoga tomorrow. Thanks Largo.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
UK Met is out to lunch and dinner over ex-td07.



Who thinks 93L is going to turn???
The models do.


I'm sure the green one goes right over my house!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDC005-013-025-150100-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-120815T0100Z/
HARFORD MD-CARROLL MD-BALTIMORE MD-
826 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR BALTIMORE...CARROLL AND HARFORD COUNTIES...

AT 823 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR GAMBER...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WESTMINSTER...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UPPERCO...
BORING...
HAMPSTEAD...
GREENMOUNT...
MANCHESTER...
BUTLER...
MILLERS...
HEREFORD...
PARKTON...
LINEBORO...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3971 7645 3945 7684 3952 7699 3973 7685
3973 7648
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 228DEG 11KT 3954 7689

$$


BJL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But...but...Kirk...like Captain Kirk!

Ok, no need to show myself as the sci-fi geek I am LOL

But yeah, what is with the I's?! can't even say it always gets to them at the right time of year surely as some years start out slower than others?!
Maybe they got vodoo on them?.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..good to know..Im glad you took the Time to tell me that..
No harm ment it's just 300 hrs!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well Sugar Honey Ice Tea it feels like it's been summer for 6 months now with winter being more like spring this year...was their a winter this year?.Couldn't tell...


we seem to be opposite...just skip over summer...wait no...skip over summer and autumn, and head straight into winter! They weren't kidding in The Holy Grail, the last 5 years have been like that in the N/W here LOL
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate these comments...


but yet he got time to troll though..smh..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14418
Quoting caneswatch:


Give it time Taz, the first major in 2004 wasn't until this time of year with Charley, and Gordon in '06 was the first major of that year in September.




Oky I give it time but plus don't for get that strong cold fronts are all ready starting too show up so it's l ikey we may not see any make land fall all so this is not a 2004 by any means
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
324 hours


360 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14418
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Some of you have way to much Time on your hands!
I hate these comments...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Is the blob(old #7) in the N/W Carb. moving into the BOC what the models are turning into the Storm in the Gulf?
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
YOUNG COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTH OF OLNEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
JEAN AT 825 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3340 9842 3307 9843 3303 9895 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 260DEG 19KT 3331 9874



82/JLD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting aislinnpaps:


His favorite is Rothenburg ob der Tauber in Deutschland, another one he likes is Frankenmuth, MI.

Some rain here later this week or weekend would be nice.


I heard he eats at Mario's. Isn't Santa's place right on Schmiedeglasse?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope so to.The "I" storms made a name for themselves over the years.It's like nature has been saving the best for them.And well....I like the name Isaac..


But...but...Kirk...like Captain Kirk!

Ok, no need to show myself as the sci-fi geek I am LOL

But yeah, what is with the I's?! can't even say it always gets to them at the right time of year surely as some years start out slower than others?!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
Quoting popartpete:
In regards to Dr. Masters' post today about Tampa Bay: I went to St. Leo College in the Tampa Bay area from January 1992 to May 1995. I knew of the 1921 storm, the last big one for the gulf city. Anyhow, in all my time, only once did tropical storm winds visit the area, for TS Gordon (coincidentally the next name in '12) in November '94. I leave the area, and that August visits Hurricane Erin, which hit the east coast first. Charley was supposed to be the new 1921 storm, but it changed course before hitting Tampa Bay.
Looking at the tracks, it's really obvious why pple would have thought that at the time... the tracks are similar enough to look like one is a tracing of the other, except further east...
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Quoting Tazmanian:




am starting too think may be none this year


Give it time Taz, the first major in 2004 wasn't until this time of year with Charley, and Gordon in '06 was the first major of that year in September.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Some of you have way to much Time on your hands!


LOL..good to know..Im glad you took the Time to tell me that..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14418
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't be ridiculous, Taz.




Is that the real. You I wounder?



Long day at school? Of so don't take it out on me or any one us for that matter
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
.......................whew,,southeast florida is getting a bad one
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.