93L a possible threat to the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation attempting to form, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly since Monday. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, but dry air is still a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry through Wednesday, then moisten considerably. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the GFS and NOGPAS models predict development into a tropical depression. Residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass close to the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Given the recent increase in 93L's organization, I put these odds at 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

Ex-TD-7 not a threat to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Western Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Honduras and Nicaragua today. These heavy rains will spread to northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Although wind shear is low and ocean temperatures high, there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. None of the reliable models forecasts that ex-TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week.

I'll have a new post early this afternoon. What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Jeff Masters

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229. CosmicEvents
6:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting reedzone:


Bappit it's best not to quote a troll.. This dude attacks me for everything I say and predict. He is a troll.
lol....What a joke. I don't attack everything you say. You're being a little self-centered there. I'll comment when anyone insults the Doc or the NHC. I can't help it if you do it more than most. I didn't say anything yesterday about your comment(which has since been removed), because others already had written well what I was thinking. I did plus Nea's comment regarding your comment, along with at last look 28 other members.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5539
228. European58
6:50 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting WaterWitch11:


humans are pregnant for 9 months. what will happen with the babies of that area?


My reaction is a bit late, sorry for that.
What happens to humans can be seen here.

Careful, it might hurt.
http://www.pixelpress.org/chernobyl/index.html
and
http://www.gerdludwig.com/stories/chernobyl-the-v ictims/#num=content-46&id=album-12

Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 76
227. HondosGirl
5:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...

Fresca anyone?
Thank you Reedzone - I couldn't agree more. I did not find any hidden agenda in Dr. Masters quote; in fact, it seemed timely.
Member Since: August 20, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
226. kwgirl
5:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


I'm purty sure God will deal with Mr. Falwell when he rises up to his reward post Life.

She has very large Leather Belt I hear tell.




True Pat true. But Mr. Falwell will ENJOY that. LOL
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
225. stormpetrol
5:13 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Looks like another entity in SW Caribbean might be merging with ex TD7



Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7716
224. Waltanater
5:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
1.6% - 3.2% chance of a hurricane forcing an evacuation in Tampa during that time.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
222. Waltanater
4:51 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also to add 93L looking better than before and I geuss 93L will steal the name Gordon from EX-TD7
give it up kid,...it's over.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
221. kshipre1
4:49 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
sign of el nino creeping up due to stronger troughs and weakening high pressure? who knows....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have noticed that GFS has emerged for many runs this month the waves way up in latitude and that is why we see all go fishing.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
220. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
219. Chicklit
4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: #114 Chicklit
"There is nothing incendiary about it."

Hiya Chicklit,

Well, just read the responses already posted and those forthcoming and see if this "minor prodding of the hornet's nest" doesn't provoke several readers...
Just sayin'...




Hi Doc, I don't think like maybe a lot of others. Or maybe I do, who knows.
What I do know is this is what Doc Masters wrote:

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Interesting, dramatic statement, sure.
If there is going to be a storm near Tampa during the RNC then there had better be good evacuation plans in place to accomodate the extra people there. Anybody have any idea how many more people will be in Tampa at that time?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11208
218. bappit
4:47 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:


I love that combination, have to be careful with the gumbo though, can't eat shellfish. :(


Go for chicken gumbo.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
216. stormchaser19
4:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.



How certain is Modiki Nino, because we have 2004 year but which others years were modiki apart of 2004?
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
215. bappit
4:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm sure the Doctor will be thrilled that you approve and relieved that he didn't do anything low, as you judgementally wrote yesterday. I have no idea what your religion has to do with the question though.
.'
Odds-wise...the odds of a mass evacuation. Well, considering we need a storm, a big one, heading for Tampa with enough time to evacuate. And it has to happen in a 2-3 day time-frame. How often have we seen mass evacuations of Tampa? I'd put the odds at 500/1-1000/1 range of such an event.

So if it is 1 in 500 conventions that would be 1 in 2000 years.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
214. Tropicsweatherpr
4:45 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
300 hrs into the fantasy land of the GFS assuming we get Gordon, Helen, and Isaac from the 2 systems in the open Atlantic and the other one in the western Gulf, here comes Joyce to round out the month with 6 named storms:





I have noticed that GFS has emerged for many runs this month the waves way up in latitude and that is why we see all go fishing.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
213. midgulfmom
4:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting StormPro:


OH NOOOOOOO! You mentioned "Da Chart" ! Next will be shower curtains everywhere lol


HAHAHA....U KNOW IT!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
210. StormPro
4:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting midgulfmom:
203. Sailor...matches the peak chart pretty well...


OH NOOOOOOO! You mentioned "Da Chart" ! Next will be shower curtains everywhere lol
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
209. GTcooliebai
4:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
300 hrs into the fantasy land of the GFS assuming we get Gordon, Helen, and Isaac from the 2 systems in the open Atlantic and the other one in the western Gulf, here comes Joyce to round out the month with 6 named storms:



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
207. washingtonian115
4:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Please don't be a bust this year Isaac.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
206. midgulfmom
4:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
203. Sailor...matches the peak chart pretty well...
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
205. GTcooliebai
4:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
192 hrs. system in the western Gulf makes landfall in Brownsville and the next system off of Africa gobbles up 93L:



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
204. midgulfmom
4:36 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Afternoon... carribbean keeping it together a bit more than expected.....watching for the front stallout and possible merge. My political view...GO SAINTS!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
203. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2012


Link


...percent chance of Florida being affected
...straight from da mouse house mouth
: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5999
202. LostTomorrows
4:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
So what I am gathering is that this year's Gordon could be following a similar path to 2006's? That would be interesting. Especially if it were to be around the same intensity.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
201. CosmicEvents
4:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...
I'm sure the Doctor will be thrilled that you approve and relieved that he didn't do anything low, as you judgementally wrote yesterday. I have no idea what your religion has to do with the question though.
.'
Odds-wise...the odds of a mass evacuation. Well, considering we need a storm, a big one, heading for Tampa with enough time to evacuate. And it has to happen in a 2-3 day time-frame. How often have we seen mass evacuations of Tampa? I'd put the odds at 500/1-1000/1 range of such an event.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5539
200. washingtonian115
4:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know it is just fun to look at when it is this far out. Shows the possibility and I won't mind seeing a Fujiwhara out in the middle of the Atlantic.
That would be cool XD.I just don't want Isaac to be a bust this year :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
199. 954FtLCane
4:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
198. scott39
4:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
It seems a little early in the season for a Low that forms in the BOC....to go N than E. I would expect that in late September or early Oct. Brings to mind Opal in 95.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
197. nofailsafe
4:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...


I love that combination, have to be careful with the gumbo though, can't eat shellfish. :(

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 943
196. GTcooliebai
4:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon now...I highly doubt that materializes.You see what happened to 93L?.It only started now developing when it was out in the middle of the atlantic near Bermuda.Not northern Africa like the GFS shows.That low south of the cape verde islands has a better chance.
I know it is just fun to look at when it is this far out. Shows the possibility and I won't mind seeing a Fujiwhara out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
195. hurricanehanna
4:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...


oh yeah...and don't forget the beer! My daughter was asking for gumbo the other night...I told her when the first cool front comes through. Too dang hot right now :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
194. yoboi
4:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehanna:


mmmmmm...with andouille sausage ???


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
193. washingtonian115
4:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Our 2 friends in the Atlantic might try and play a game of Fujiwhara:

C'mon now...I highly doubt that materializes.You see what happened to 93L?.It only started now developing when it was out in the middle of the atlantic near Bermuda.Not northern Africa like the GFS shows.That low south of the cape verde islands has a better chance.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
192. hamla
4:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
what has ruined politics in the 20,21st century is yhe allmighty DOLLAR way back in the eraly 50s there was less than a few hundred millionares,dont remember the word biullionare,now thats the standard for thes country.in 1961 un amite la.i coukd buy 10 loafs of bunny bread for a buck.min wage was a dollar fifteen a hous gas was 18 cents a gallon etc.so we really need to think about all the people who make min wage in 2012.it has gone up a wopping 6.35 a hour in 51 years
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
191. kshipre1
4:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
interesting to you said north and then east. things could get interesting.
Quoting sar2401:


No one really knows, since there is no storm yet. The GFS is predicting a low pressure area to form in the BOC with the hint that it may be taken north and then east. What that possible low may turn into and the exact track and intensity is not better than chance at this point.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
190. 1900hurricane
4:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....



Tropical cyclone or not, HGX does sound like they are hopeful that some rains will return by the end of the week.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MORE WET
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT STRETCHES TO THE GULF. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
189. hurricanehanna
4:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


the more ammo they buy the higher it is for me to buy and that makes my duck gumbo go up in price....


mmmmmm...with andouille sausage ???
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
188. reedzone
4:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...

Fresca anyone?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
187. ProgressivePulse
4:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
181. CybrTeddy 4:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2012 +2

Not sure which model it was that was posted some time ago, I think the CFS but, it showed a Modoki developing ASO period. Interesting.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
186. GTcooliebai
4:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Our 2 friends in the Atlantic might try and play a game of Fujiwhara:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
185. washingtonian115
4:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....


Or it do a Don?.Literally vanish in mid air.But the drought over Texas isn't as strong as it was last year and predominant.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
184. RitaEvac
4:18 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Wow, that's a nice way to start the blog of for me today. :P


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
183. washingtonian115
4:18 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.
I don't care!.Just as long as I get an interesting hurricane season and a cold snowy winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
182. yoboi
4:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
I am so sick of this political junk....people have always had political differences.It's what makes this county great....What I don't understand is this new level of anger and hate....if you ask me, I think it's wise that the Gov't arms itself. In fact, they probably haven't bought enough ammo !


the more ammo they buy the higher it is for me to buy and that makes my duck gumbo go up in price....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
181. CybrTeddy
4:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
180. Houstonweathergrl
4:13 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
I am so sick of this political junk....people have always had political differences.It's what makes this county great....What I don't understand is this new level of anger and hate....if you ask me, I think it's wise that the Gov't arms itself. In fact, they probably haven't bought enough ammo !
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 187
179. 1900hurricane
4:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen


Wow, that's a nice way to start the blog of for me today. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.