93L a possible threat to the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation attempting to form, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly since Monday. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, but dry air is still a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry through Wednesday, then moisten considerably. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the GFS and NOGPAS models predict development into a tropical depression. Residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass close to the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Given the recent increase in 93L's organization, I put these odds at 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

Ex-TD-7 not a threat to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Western Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Honduras and Nicaragua today. These heavy rains will spread to northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Although wind shear is low and ocean temperatures high, there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. None of the reliable models forecasts that ex-TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week.

I'll have a new post early this afternoon. What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen


Wow, that's a nice way to start the blog of for me today. :P
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And only 10 days away from solid month of no measurable rainfall at my place....mind as well be friggin 2011
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Quoting washingtonian115:
With the way steering patterns have been going this year I highly doubt a storm will interfere with the RNC convention.
However,it may be someone's wishful thinking.
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What did the hurricane say to the other hurricane?
I got my eye on you.

Where did the meteorologist stop for a drink on the way home from a long day in the studio?
The nearest ISOBAR!!

Everybody knows about the Fujita Scale which measures the power of tornados. But nobody really knows what all those types of twisters do to COWS. So here is the MOOJITA Scale...
MOOJITA SCALE

M0 Tornado- Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed
M1 Tornado- Cows are tipped over and can't get up
M2 Tornado- Cows begin rolling with the wind
M3 Tornado- Cows tumble and bounce
M4 Tornado- Cows are AIRBORN
M5 Tornado- S T E A K ! ! !

GOODNIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen

Well it did do good with Ernesto...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen



Especially 7 days out
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173. hamla
Quoting Patrap:
Yup,

But I like the continuity post betta'

; )

I was Born in Jan,1960, but conceived in the 50's, so there's dat as well.
pat u was a thought personhood early in life lol
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Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Really??? Wow, lets hope for destruction and harm just so the convention could be cancelled. I hope there are no storms, not even one to hit North Carolina in September!
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re-post, # 70

A Hurricane doesn't have to Strike Tampa during the RNC Convention, or the DNC one as well.

It only has to be strong Cane and threaten the US Coastline to bring about changes at a Convention.

Gustav did that only 4 years ago.


Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC



ABC News’ Karen Travers reports: In an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace that will air Sunday morning, Sen. John McCain indicated that the GOP convention could be suspended because of Hurricane Gustav.
"It wouldn’t be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster," McCain told Wallace.
McCain said that he has been in touch with the governors of the Gulf Coast states—where Gustav is expected to make landfall—and that his campaign would continue to monitor the now-Category 4 storm.
"I’m afraid, Chris, that we may have to look at that situation and we’ll try and monitor it. I’ve been talking to Governors Jindal [La.], Barbour [Miss.], Riley [Ala.], Crist [Fla.], I’ve been talking to all of them," McCain told Wallace. "So we’re monitoring it from day to day and I’m saying a few prayers too."
A Republican convention official tells ABC News, however, that at this point, there are no plans to cancel the convention but there are several contingency plans that are being looked at in terms of delegation travel and the program of speakers. Both Crist and Jindal are scheduled to speak at the convention this week, but no decisions have been made yet on their plans to come to Minneapolis-Saint Paul.
This official says the Republican National Convention Committee is "still moving forward with opening the convention on Monday" as planned and notes that there is official business that has to happen at the convention, like the actual nomination of John McCain and the platform ratification.
The RNCC has issued the following statement from 2008 Republican National Convention President and CEO Maria Cino:
"Like all Americans, our prayers are with those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav. We continue to closely monitor the movement of the storm and are considering necessary contingencies. We are in communication with the Gulf state governors to make sure the convention is taking all the appropriate steps as the hurricane progresses. The safety of our affected delegations is our first priority and preparing for Gustav comes before anything else."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen

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Quoting Neapolitan:
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?


Yeah, but during the tropics season it used to be 30 outta 30 were tropical weather with just little snip its of big weather/climate news. I'm not saying what he's doing is wrong. Just an observation.
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not even a storm in the GOM yet and already time to pass out some Prozac. any takers? lol
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting Neapolitan:
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?
Guide 'em to the climate blog Nea! You can shred 'em up there. lol
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Weather or Not?

Dat is the Question.






Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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Quoting Chicklit:
Acute Schizophrenia Paranoia Blues


Nice come back, chic. About what I would expect.
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With the way steering patterns have been going this year I highly doubt a storm will interfere with the RNC convention.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
Yup,

But I like the continuity post betta'

; )

I was Born in Jan,1960, but conceived in the 50's, so there's dat as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
162. hamla
weather,weather
wether ur left or wether ur right wether is weather lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Betsy also struck Se Louisiana.

..er, for "continuity".


But the convention was held there, so it is totally irrelevant to the post. If that had been the case I would have shown all the tracks and detailed where they struck. I did not think that was necessary. It was strictly to reflect the thinking of the members of the committee about having a convention in a city prone to frequent hurricanes, which as you know were more frequent in the 1940's through the 1960's :P:P:P
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'll be back in the morning. Hopefully by then it's 99.9% weather talk and 0.1% other stuff. Goodnight all.


GN, Aussie. I hope so too.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17353
Quoting divingpyrate:
The WU may have always been this liberal, but the Blog has not always been.
Used to be a fun place to discuss and learn now it is just the new global warming network
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
I purty sure that a Hurricane striking Fla will have to first pass a Urine Test,..that's from the Guvna's office.


Or maybe the Onion,

Sources are not my forte'.

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting RitaEvac:
If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.

Going to need to pay attention to the high tides as a New Moon is set to occur on the 17th, first quarter on the 24th, and Full Moon on the 31st.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
They did the reverse contraflow later in the day as they wanted to keep it open for residents who needed to get home to their loved ones and get their stuff and get out of there.


OK, that makes sense. I have no idea what timeframe the video represents compared to predicted time of landfall..but I still wouldn't drive with my hood up. :)
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I'll be back in the morning. Hopefully by then it's 99.9% weather talk and 0.1% other stuff. Goodnight all.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting divingpyrate:


But is it standard issue for Meteorologist?
That is the weather service not the cops.


Please read my comment #36. Mets are not being issued ammo.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17353
I believe we're starting to get some spillover from GLP and LOP.

Or I could be wrong.


It has Happened before.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Thank you sar2401. I will be checking GFS models daily.
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Quoting sar2401:


Curious video. I wonder why the Frankland Bridge wasn't opened on both sides to outbound traffic? I65 north through Alabama has all lanes open only for northbound traffic during a evacuation. Did y'all see the car at about 2:38 into the video driving with his hood up? I guess that's one way to cool the engine, but I see a rear end collision at some point in the near future. :)
They did the reverse contraflow later in the day as they wanted to keep it open for residents who needed to get home to their loved ones and get their stuff and get out of there.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting cyclonekid:


Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?


No one really knows, since there is no storm yet. The GFS is predicting a low pressure area to form in the BOC with the hint that it may be taken north and then east. What that possible low may turn into and the exact track and intensity is not better than chance at this point.
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Hurricane Betsy also struck Se Louisiana.

..er, for "continuity".
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Spin Baby Spin
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Quoting divingpyrate:


so agree but you wont win that fight here, this is left wing city


Thats right.... I mean left???? So weather is a left thing? Funny how the right of freedom of speech ends once the left has had its turn..... then its, back to the rules of the road... LOL
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The very same concerns were held at the 1968 Republican Convention in Miami. Many people on the committee did not want the convention held there because it was during the Hurricane Season. Their reasons were valid. These storms were common in that period so it has and always will be a concern.

Hurricane Inez brushed the Southern tip of Florida in 1966.





Hurricane Betsy hit Miami in 1965.



Isabel and Cleo hit South Florida in 1964





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Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting cyclonekid:


Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?


Seems to just form off the tail end of front
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Quoting Kibkaos:
After reading some of these posts I am confused. We are supposed to be focused on weather not political agendas. I am interested on the possibility of activity in the GOM. What are some of the models that are the most useful to study?


The GFS models have been performing well this year, so I'd look to them over the next week and see what develops.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17353
I'm Rob Base and I, I, I, I, I wanna talk right now....

Weather
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.



Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?
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re: #114 Chicklit
"There is nothing incendiary about it."

Hiya Chicklit,

Well, just read the responses already posted and those forthcoming and see if this "minor prodding of the hornet's nest" doesn't provoke several readers...
Just sayin'...



Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4802
This might not be too funny for someone.
looks like a storm stuck under a building ridge.
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Quoting sar2401:


Please see my comment #36. This is not part of a giant conspiracy. .40 cal hollow point ammo is standard issue for most police agencies, and lots of ammo is expended for training.


But is it standard issue for Meteorologist?
That is the weather service not the cops.
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Quoting Chicklit:


Nobody is arming the GOM with wind and rain to pelt the RNC. He's not making the weather, just prognosticating about it. Sheesh.

I didn't say he was creating the weather, but rather just making a thinly vailed political statement, as you already know, chicklit.
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The WU may have always been this liberal, but the Blog has not always been.
Used to be a fun place to discuss and learn now it is just the new global warming network
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After reading some of these posts I am confused. We are supposed to be focused on weather not political agendas. I am interested on the possibility of activity in the GOM. What are some of the models that are the most useful to study?
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If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.

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You do realize this is the "weather underground".


I wonder how much Bain Corporation and the Blackstone Group could kick in for Disaster Relief after a Major Event?

Have they in the past?

I'd like a few Hours with their er, PR folks as I have a great Idea but will not expound on it here.

It could cause some panic.

Fresca anyone?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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